The Race for Top 5? - GW 27: Chelsea vs. Tottenham

Chelsea vs. Tottenham

The Race for Top 5?

With the surprising news of Manchester City’s Champions League ban, the door has opened for other sides to challenge for a Champions League place. After discoveries that City have breached UEFA’s Financial Fair Play (FFP) laws this season, they have been banned from all UEFA competitions for the next 2 seasons. 

This means that despite their place in the top four, they aren't able to qualify for a European spot.

Now, 5th place seems to have become a separate trophy. With 4th through 9th separated by just 5 points, two Champions League places are up for grabs as we approach the end of the season. Because of this, Spurs have found themselves in a position of immense power, and almost look like favourites for a place amongst Europe’s elite. 

Both Chelsea and Spurs are entirely immersed in this battle. While the London Derby is always a heated affair, this match could be set for some extra spice after these newfound discoveries. 

At the moment, Chelsea have a mere 1 point advantage over their upcoming opponents, while they don’t come into this game in particularly good form. Although they still sit in 4th, the gap between themselves and the chasing pack has narrowed significantly over the past few weeks. If they were to fail to win here, it would be 5 games without a win for the Blues. At that stage, it’s hard to see them as favourites for one of the Champions League places. 

Tottenham, however, have come into form at just the right time. As this battle has intensified, Spurs suddenly look like one of the best teams challenging in this area of the table.

And Spurs have perhaps been the biggest beneficiaries to this recent sequence of events. Sitting in 5th, they would now qualify for the Champions League if things were to stay the same. 

Early on in the season, this looked an impossible task. When Mourinho first took charge of this Spurs side, they were sat in 11th, but they’ve made remarkable progress since then. While many people have criticized Mourinho and his methods over the years, it’s hard to ignore the success that he’s implemented with Spurs thus far. Since Mourinho took charge, Tottenham have had the 3rd best record in the Premier League. Only Liverpool and Manchester City have gained more than their 24 points in 14 matches, as Mourinho seems to have restored confidence within his side.

While this change has seemed subtle, it has had a massive impact. This Spurs side seem to have snuck up on some of the bigger teams, and are close to obtaining a top four spot for the first time this season. 

Tactically, Mourinho has made big changes to the side as well. He’s made the front four more effective while he’s also managed to get the best out of Serge Aurier. However; perhaps the most exciting change is what he’s done to the midfield.

At the beginning, it looked as if Mourinho preferred a midfield pairing of Eric Dier and Harry Winks. Over Tottenham’s first 4 matches under Mourinho these players took up 6 of the available 8 midfield spots. Since then, however, he has moved towards a more progressive and balanced midfield pairing.

The key to this has been the emergence of Giovanni Lo Celso. Lo Celso has now started in 4 of Spurs’ last 7 league matches, as Mourinho has begun to favour him as of late. 

Having been initially signed on loan this summer, he has only now been afforded a regular starting place. Under Pochettino, he was used from time to time but only made one Premier League start. Even then, he had to wait more than a month for his first Premier League start once Mourinho came in. 

Also, when coming off the bench in the early stages of the season, he was being employed as an attacking midfielder more often than not. Surprisingly, Pochettino seemed to struggle in identifying Lo Celso’s best position, which has clearly been as a progressive midfielder this campaign. Even in his Real Betis days he tended to play deeper, normally has part of a midfield three. Mourinho has identified the progressive abilities that Lo Celsos possesses, which has allowed the Argentine to thrive under his new manager. 

Lo Celso’s numbers are proof that he’s been integral to Spurs lately. In the Premier League this season he’s averaging 1.8 dribbles per 90 as well as 1.8 key passes. Considering his relatively reserved role, these are impressive figures. His average of 50 passes per 90 also shows that he is a key player when on the field. When he plays as a roaming playmaker, just ahead of a defensive midfielder, most of Tottenham’s play tends to go through him. 

Out of players who have played more than 500 league minutes, Lo Celso ranks 2nd for passes into the final third per 90. He also ranks 3rd for through balls and 4th for passes into the penalty area (all per 90), showing his progressive abilities. 

Astonishingly, Spurs have perhaps an even better progressive midfielder amongst their ranks. 

Lo Celso’s fellow summer signing Tanguy Ndombele has experienced a somewhat unspectacular start to his Premier League career, however; his underlying numbers prove his worth. Injuries along with Mourinho’s preference of Harry Winks have meant that Ndombele has played just 817 minutes in the Premier League this campaign. This will obviously be incredibly disappointing for the Frenchman, who has clearly shown that he is an elite midfield player.

He currently ranks 4th in the Spurs squad for passes into the final third per 90, with a marginally worse progressive passing record than Lo Celso. Most of Ndombele’s progression, however, comes from his immense dribbling ability. 

He ranks 1st in the squad for dribbles completed per 90, with a superb 3.4 per match. For a midfield player, this is absolutely spectacular. In fact, this is the highest figure for a central midfielder in the Premier League, and ranks 11th for players who have played over 500 league minutes. In the Champions League, this takes a massive boost, going from 3.4 to 5.4 per 90.

With these two midfield players, Spurs have the base of what could be an incredible side. The progression that these players bring to their team from the center of the park is unrivalled amongst Premier League midfields, and the prospect of these two playing together is almost unfathomable.

Sadly, neither Mourinho nor Pochettino has established them as a midfield pairing. While they have been used interchangeably over Mourinho’s tenure, they have rarely been used together in a double-pivot. Like mentioned earlier, Mourinho has preferred Harry Winks and Eric Dier in the midfield at points this season; a much more conservative tactic. Although this would be an awe inspiring partnership, Mourinho clearly doesn’t believe in the defensive consistency that they would provide when played together.

Still, with Ndombele returning to full fitness recently, this is a pairing that we could see over the coming months, especially against the smaller sides. And with Spurs now challenging for what could be the top 5, they certainly seem to have a midfield of Champions League quality.

While Tottenham’s team seems as though it has the potential to get better and better, especially once their injury crisis is resolved, this Chelsea side is on the decline.

Having experienced just 1 win in their last 6 matches, Chelsea currently sit 13th in the Premier League form table. Their drop in quality combined with their poor luck over this period has seen them collapse in recent matches. However, much of this has been a matter of fortune. Despite conceding 1.33 goals per match over their last 6 games, expected goals predicts that they should be conceding just 0.94. 

On the attacking end, it’s the same story. While they have scored just once per match over this period, expected goals indicates that they should be scoring at a rate of 1.4 times per 90. 

There are a number of factors which could be accountable for this. Perhaps most obvious is the poor finishing in the squad. Young players such as Tammy Abraham and Mason Mount have struggled to find the back of the net in recent matches, despite frequently being presented with big opportunities. On the flip-side of this, is the poor goalkeeping. Chelsea keeper, Kepa Arrizabalaga, has the worst save percentage in the Premier League. His performances in goal have been a big reason for Chelsea’s underperformance on expected goals, and he has subsequently been replaced by 38 year old Willy Caballero.

Finally, while Chelsea don’t tend to concede many shots, with the 2nd best record in this regard, the shots they concede are often high quality chances. This has been seen to skew expected goals numbers in the past. Teams who tend to concede higher quality opportunities usually underperform on their expected goals against. For example, Manchester City have also underperformed on their xGA by a total of 3.62 goals this season.

Although Chelsea have been unfortunate recently, there are reasons behind this extended run of bad luck. 

While they might have deserved more from a number of their recent matches, they now find themselves in a difficult situation as they look towards a game against their close rivals. With Tottenham in a much better position in terms of form, many would say they come into this match as favourites. 

Jose Mourinho has greatly improved this Spurs side in the three months that he’s worked with the club, but his solid managerial performance has gone largely unnoticed. Almost out of the blue, Spurs look as if they’re going to be playing in the Champions League next season. With form and confidence on their side, I believe they’ll further their top four push with another win here. My final prediction is a 1-2 Spurs victory.