Why United are Favorites for the Top 4 - GW 30: Tottenham vs. Manchester United

Tottenham vs. Manchester United

Why United are Favourites for the Top 4

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article about Spurs and their chances at competing for Champions League football. At the time, I predicted that they would continue their upwards spiral under Mourinho, and that by the end of the year they would be the 4th best team in the country.

I couldn’t have been more wrong. Since that point, Spurs have failed to win a game in any competition, and have gained just 1 point in 3 Premier League matches. United, on the other hand, have set out to prove people wrong. 

While it’s frustrating to say it, the Red Devils have seemingly restored some of their long lost competence over the last few weeks. After their superb derby day win against Manchester City on Sunday, Solskjaer’s men are on the right path, and will be gunning for a place in the top 4.

Their current form is certainly indicative of a Champions League side. United are now unbeaten in their last 5 in the Premier League, and have won 3 of their last 4. Despite facing Wolves, Chelsea, Everton and Manchester City during this period, United have shown their resolve in order to bypass this difficult period. 

While their victories against Chelsea and Manchester City are perhaps most impressive, United fans will be more relieved about their 3-0 thrashing of Watford. Although this result might seem rather insignificant, it symbolizes a turning point for Solskjaer’s men. In what has been a season of ups and downs for the Red Devils, their biggest problem has been in breaking down deeper defences. For much of the campaign, they have lacked the creativity in midfield to break down some of the smaller clubs.

This Watford result, however, shows their improvement in this regard. Although the Hornets are fully immersed in a relegation battle, they’ve proven to be stern opposition since the arrival of Nigel Pearson. In fact, in late December United were beaten by Pearson’s Watford. 

In that match, a 2-0 defeat, United were caught out multiple times on the counter-attack, while they struggled to break down Watford’s organized defensive unit. This most recent victory against the Hornets, however, showed a United side with far clearer intentions. They allowed Watford just 7 shots and 42% possession on the night. Defensively, they put in a solid performance, not allowing Watford to counter-attack. By operating with more defensive full-backs, Watford weren’t able to make use of their offensive and pacey wingers. 

Similarly to their game against City, United set out in this one with an obvious gameplan. Despite operating with different systems in these matches, both games highlighted their recent defensive security.

Against Watford, they pressed effectively and one the midfield battle comfortably. Against Manchester City, they set up entirely differently, but got their gameplan spot on. 

Employing a 3-4-1-2, United set out to counter City’s style of play. Defensively, the Red Devils were essentially man-marking their opponents. In midfield, United’s three matched up perfectly with City’s three. The same could be said across the pitch, with United’s front two matching City’s center-backs, United’s wing-backs matching City’s full-backs and United’s center-backs matching City’s potent front three. When City gained control of possession, United’s wing-backs dropped onto their opposing wingers, creating a 5-2-1-2. Although this left City’s full-backs open, it allowed United to double-up on City’s wingers.

 With both the wingers and midfielders tightly marked, City struggled to create any meaningful chances. 

Perhaps one of the most surprising aspects of the match was how comfortably United won the midfield battle. Against what is quite probably the best midfield in the league, United looked confident and composed when dealing with them.

By man-marking the midfield three tightly, United limited the creative impact that players like Bernardo Silva could have on the match. City’s midfield made just 2 key passes between them, both of which came from Ilkay Gundogan. By comparison, United’s midfield made 4 key passes on the night, despite their side keeping just 28% possession. City’s midfield for the game (Rodri, Gundogan and Bernardo Silva) typically average a combined 4 key passes per 90 in the league, illustrating how successful United’s midfield structure was in containing them.

The individual quality that United’s midfielders showed was also particularly impressive. Both Fred and Matic performed superbly at the base of midfield, which allowed United to stifle the City attack. 

Fred’s performance was of especially high-standard. Playing just ahead of Matic in United’s double-pivot, he had one of his best games in a United shirt to date.

Along with completing the joint most passes for his side, he made 4 tackles and interceptions, completed both of his attempted dribbles and touched the ball less than only Aaron Wan-Bissaka for United. Overall, it was a very tidy performance from the Brazilian, who has stepped up his game over the last few weeks. Fred has now started every Premier League game since matchweek 8 this season, as he has become an increasingly important figure. He ranks 2nd in the squad for tackles and interceptions per match, and 4th for dribbles, highlighting his versatile role in the center of the park.

His improvement has been visible as well. Over his last 4 Premier League matches, he’s been averaging 4.5 tackles and interceptions per match, up from his season average of 3.6. Also, in 3 of United’s last 5 matches in the Premier League, Fred has completed his side’s most passes, as his influence in the team is increasing. However; perhaps an even more impressive improvement has been that of Nemanja Matic’s over the past few matches. 

The Serbian midfielder has surprisingly been the missing link in United’s team, and has greatly improved their defensive performances. After starting just 2 Premier League matches during the entire first half of the season, he has now started in 9 of United’s last 10 league fixtures. 

Although his numbers haven’t been outstanding during this period, he’s been brought in to do a specific job in the middle of the park. He has played in a more conservative manner, which is reflected in some of his statistics. He currently ranks 3rd amongst United midfielders for tackles and interceptions per match, averaging 3.2. The only players surpassing him in this regard are Scott McTominay and the aforementioned Fred. Even then, McTominay’s 3.3 and Fred’s 3.6 tackles and interceptions per match are just marginally better. 

And when looking at passing stats, Matic thoroughly outdoes McTominay. Matic completes an average of 56 passes per match, compared to McTominay’s 42. Matic’s pass completion rate is also superior to that of McTominay’s (83% to 79%). This proves that Matic is generally a more consistent and composed passer of the ball. Therefore; Matic fits his defensive midfield role perfectly. Although he is a less dynamic and mobile midfielder than the likes of Fred and McTominay, he provides a consistent presence at the base of midfield.

However; Matic’s inclusion in the side is almost entirely dependent on the presence of Bruno Fernandes. A combo of Fred and Matic at the heart of midfield is honestly quite an uninspiring prospect. But the January addition of Bruno Fernandes has allowed the pair to become more successful in their respective roles. 

With the creativity that Fernandes brings to the side, Fred and Matic can focus on what they do best; defensive play and basic progression. Although Matic brings virtually no creativity to the side, averaging just 0.8 key passes per 90, he is a useful asset when parked in front of the defence. For this reason, we’ve seen a similar improvement in Fred. Prior to the acquisition of Fernandes, Fred was often forced to play in a more advanced role, as he was expected to contribute from a creative standpoint. 

As a result of Fernandes’ inclusion in the team, Fred’s defensive numbers have shot up, as he is now able to focus on the defensive side of his game. With both Matic and Fred at the base of midfield (in their preferred roles), United finally have a more consistent midfield platform. Not only has this made United more defensively solid, but it has also improved their possession retention in the middle of the park. Both Matic and Fred are tidy passers in their own right, when they’re not forced to play ambitious balls into the final third.

When speaking about Fernandes as an individual, I’ll keep this brief, as I’ve already written on him several times. Since arriving in the Premier League, he’s contributed to more goals than any player in the entire division. With 2 goals and 3 assists in just 5 Premier League appearances, he has clearly had an immediate impact in this United squad. 

Creatively, Fernandes has filled the void left by the absence of Paul Pogba. His 2.2 key passes per match ranks 2nd in the United squad, behind only the Frenchman. He also ranks joint 3rd for assists in the squad, despite having played just 5 league games for the club. This highlights the rather drastic creative situation that United have been in this season, as only two of their players have clocked up more than 3 league assists. Interestingly, both of these players are wingers. Yet again, this shows that United have been severely lacking a creative midfield player.

In Solskjaer’s current system, United are far from a crossing-based team. With players like Rashford, James, Martial and Greenwood frequently playing on the wings, this shows Solskjaer’s preference for goalscorers in the wide areas. For this reason, it’s worrying that Rashford and James are the only players to have made more assists than Fernandes this season. These are the players who should be getting on the end of chances, and asserting themselves in the penalty area. In Solskjaer’s 4-2-3-1, the majority of the creative output should be coming from the midfield players, and in particular the number 10. 

With Fernandes establishing himself as a focal point at the tip of midfield, he has managed to improve the rest of the squad. He has taken the creative burden off of United’s other attacking and midfield players, and has allowed them to complete their jobs more effectively. Players like Matic and Fred have excelled in their more defensive roles, while Martial is thriving off of the service and support that Fernandes provides. Overall, with the addition of Bruno to this United setup, we are finally witnessing a more complete team under the stewardship of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

And as Spurs look towards this momentous fixture, they look less complete than ever. Their recent form along with their injury woes have created a rather hostile atmosphere at the club. Although Jose Mourinho had seemingly brought them back into the race for a Champions League spot, Spurs have been on a downward spiral over the last few weeks. 

After going on a 7 match unbeaten streak in all competitions between January 14th and February 16th, they are now without a win in each of their last 6. This includes 3 Premier League games, while they’ve also crashed out of both the FA Cup and the Champions League. They’ve scored just 5 goals over this 6 game period, which is indicative of their injury crisis in attacking areas. 

Spurs are currently missing Son, Kane and Bergwijn through injury, leaving them with Moura as their only striking option. Still, Moura is far from your traditional number 9, and is far better when played in a front two or on the wing. In recent games, Mourinho has been experimenting with using Dele Alli as a lone striker, with Moura and Lamela playing off of him. This has provided little success, however. Alli has played as the number 9 in each of Tottenham’s last 4 games, and his side have scored just 4 goals during this period. Alli’s only goal during this spell came in a 1-1 draw against Burnley from the penalty spot; uninspiring to say the least. 

Without key personnel, Mourinho hasn’t found a way to build an effective creative system. Over their last 4 league and Champions League matches, they have created just 3.34 expected goals.

While the attack isn’t functioning at it’s best, they aren’t necessarily receiving the service that they need to succeed. Apart from Lo Celso, Spurs’ midfield has been poor. In fact, Mourinho publicly criticized French midfielder Tanguy Ndombele last week after a poor first half performance against Burnley. 

With Eriksen gone, Spurs have lacked a real creative passer amongst their ranks. While Lo Celso has been great over this difficult period, he is much more of a midfield progressor. While Lo Celso averages just 0.8 key passes per match, he ranks 2nd in the Spurs squad for passes into the final third per 90. He also ranks 2nd for passes into the penalty area, showing his progressive abilities.

Mourinho has failed to develop a solution to his side’s underlying creative issues, as well as the lack of potency in the  attack. While Manchester United have shown some impressive progression over the past few weeks, Spurs and Mourinho are heading in the opposite direction.

And as both teams look forward to this match, United have to be considered overwhelming favorites. Not only do they have a 4 point lead on their upcoming opponents, but their recent form also suggests that they’re the much better side. 

Without any firepower in their squad, Spurs will find it difficult to break down what has been an organized defensive unit as of late. United have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 games, and they look like one of the most solid defensive sides in the division. Now with Bruno Fernandes at the heart of their attacking unit, they finally look like a capable side at both ends of the field. 

United’s recent form has put them firmly in the race for Champions League football, and a win here could make them strong favourites. And I believe they will win. Their recent form suggests they are the much stronger and more organized side at the moment. I predict a 2-0 victory for the Red Devils.