GW 8: Manchester City vs. Wolves

This weekend, the Premier League continues as we move into matchweek 8 of the 2019/20 season, our last week of Premier League action before the second international break. While Liverpool against Leicester might be stealing the headlines on Saturday, a crucial fixture could be played out on Sunday as well, with Wolves travelling to the Etihad to face the champions. Both of these teams haven’t looked at their best recently though. City are currently 2nd in the league but have looked far inferior to last season, while Wolves have seen an incredible dropoff, as they sit in 13th at the moment with just 1 win to their name. This, however, makes this match even more important to the two sides, as they will be looking to get back on their feet in a big match before they get a week away from the action. 

Although these sides are in relatively poor form, this match could help them get back to the heights that they were at last season. Last year, Wolves were one of just six teams to take points off the eventual champions, and while they have digressed since then, they still have the quality within their ranks to pull out a similar result. However, this upcoming match will be played at the Etihad, a venue at which Wolves lost 3-0 the last time they visited. Wolves will now be hoping that they can improve on this performance, as well as a few of their earlier performances this season, so that they can capitalize on a City side who for once don’t look perfect.

Manchester City:

While Manchester City are in 2nd, with 16 points so far, they have looked notably weaker than they were last season, where at this point they had 19 points. Also, while they have managed more goals at the start of this season than they did last year, their defence has taken a massive decline. After the first 7 games of last campaign, they had conceded just 3 times, while they had not yet conceded more than 1 goal in a single match. However, this season they have conceded 7 goals, and what’s even worse is that they deserved these poor defensive returns. Expected goals shows that they have actually been lucky defensively, with 8.47 expected goals conceded, the 5th best in the division. 

Although Wolves aren’t a brilliant attacking side, they are often clinical when chances come their way, and with Manchester City allowing more defensive errors than ever before, we could see Wolves grab a goal or two. While in the past City have defended through their possession, they have become easily exposable on the counter-attack this year. Much of this is due to the advanced positions of the central-midfielders, who play almost level with the forwards, which in turn leaves a large gap in front of Rodri at the base of midfield. While City have been able to combat this in previous seasons, their defensive personnel have been weakened due to injuries among other reasons. Also, with De Bruyne playing increasingly further up the field, another facilitating midfielder needs to be brought in to cover for some of Rodri’s defensive flaws.

Bernardo Silva could help to fill this role, as he often contributes defensively despite being played in advanced positions. Silva has been averaging 3.6 tackles and interceptions per 90 this season while playing in a possession dominant side as a winger and attacking midfielder. This means that if he were to be given a more defensive role, he could further these defensive actions and help to shield the backline. While he has been favoured on the wing this season, City are heavily stocked in these areas and you feel that he could be more useful in a David Silva role, enforcing City’s creative play but adding more defensive grit than the Spaniard would. 

At the base of midfield, Rodri will also have to be defensively solid. While he has started his time in the Premier League well, he is failing to meet the incredibly high standard that Fernandinho has kept for so many years. Rodri has actually been making 3.9 tackles and interceptions per 90; however, his defensive positioning and awareness are far inferior to that of Fernandinho’s. This is notable when City are defending counter-attacks, as he often struggles to slow down the play, while his pace isn’t sufficient when attempting to stop high-speed attacks. When this is paired with a weakened backline, the results aren’t pretty for the Cityzens. To improve on this, both City and Rodri as an individual could look to defend through their possession play, especially against a deep-lying side like Wolves. Although this can boring times, it might be a necessary adjustment if Pep wants his side to stay solid at the back. Rodri could also drop into a deeper position like Fernandinho so often did. This would allow him more time to react to counter-attacks, while it also means that the centre-backs could step forward with less risk.

Wolves:

Wolves have similarly endured a dramatic drop in form from last season. However, their poor form has been much clearer in their results than it has been for Manchester City as they have collected just 7 points so far, with 1 win, 4 draws and 2 losses. Wolves did manage to boost their form in their last game though, as they beat a struggling Watford side 2-0. This match could prove to be a crucial point in their season, as it will massively extend their confidence and they now finally have a platform on which to build, 7 games into the season. This season, Wolves haven’t actually been much worse than they were last year. While they have struggled with creativity so far, this has always been the case for Nuno Espirito Santo’s men who have often relied on clinical finishing to gain them points. Along with this, expected goals shows that they have been unlucky on the defensive end of things, with 9.52 expected goals conceded compared to the 11 that they have actually let in. 

This defence will face it’s biggest test yet though when they go up against City. Interestingly, Wolves have recently switched back to a 3-4-3 formation and you would expect them to continue with this; however, their overall gameplan will need changing. Wolves should sit deep in this game, as they are a team who often endure success when doing so, but, they need to look for opportunities to counter. The 3-4-3 formation will allow them to do this as this set-up can involve two pacey wingers playing on the outside. These wingers can help to hit City on the break through the wide areas, taking advantage of when the opposing full-backs venture forwards.

The continuation of playing with a 3-4-3 means that Pedro Neto could yet again find himself in the first team. The young Portugeuse left-winger has started his career with Wolves in brilliant fashion, and even in limited minutes he has looked the finished article. He started his first Premier League game last week against Watford, and he managed to grab a beautiful assist while his overall play gave Wolves more attacking threat at all times. Neto is an incredibly dynamic player with a good bit of pace, and this will obviously be important in this game. He is also a strong dribbler, averaging 3.9 dribbles per 90 in league play and all of these strengths make him a useful player to have on the counter-attack. 

Another player who is crucial in allowing this formation to work is Matt Doherty, as he provides both offensive and defensive output from right wing-back. Doherty always seems to be at his best when Wolves play with a 3-4-3 over a 3-5-2. This formation allows him to double up on the wings, using his winger as support, while he can also afford to venture infield when he has another man out wide. In this game though, is duties will be primarily defensive. His defensive stats aren’t great with just about 3 tackles and interceptions per 90, and this could largely be down to his tendency to get caught out in forward positions. Against very talented attackers in this match, Doherty should focus his skills on winning back possession before progressing the ball up the field to his teammates. Both of Wolves’ wing-backs could prove to be incredibly important in this game, as Manchester City tend to play with wide wingers, unlike most of the other big sides. This means that the wing-backs will have to drop slightly deeper in order to limit the threat from these players, while potentially nullifying one of City’s most dangerous areas.

Injuries:

One of the main reasons that City haven’t been on their game recently, are the injuries to a few key players. Of course, Sane is still stuck on the sidelines which should be the case for the next few months after he suffered a knee injury just before the start of the season; however, City do have a number of capable back-ups in this area. Places for more concern are at centre-back and centre-midfield, where they are really struggling over the losses of big players recently. Over the past few weeks, their defensive performances have gone down substantially and it’s easy to see why, with both first team centre-backs out injured. This includes Laporte, who is out with a knee injury that could see him miss four months of the season, and Stones, who could be back after this game after he recovers from his muscle problem. This leaves City with only two recognized senior centre-backs in Otamendi, and 18 year old Eric Garcia, who has played just 21 minutes of Premier League football. Kevin De Bruyne was also confirmed to have suffered a groin problem last week, meaning he will miss this game, which could have an effect on City’s attacking output. 

In this sense, Wolves will have an extreme advantage over City in this game with only one senior player potentially missing. This is Jota, who has recently obtained a toe injury, which kept him out of their last match against Watford. He has still not been clear; however, Wolves do look strong in the wings at the moment, and it might be good if the aforementioned Pedro Neto was able to get a run of games in. Another thing to consider when analyzing Wolves, is that they have had an extremely demanding Europa League campaign at the beginning of this year. This has seen them play more matches than any other Premier League side to start the season, and might be one of the reasons for their poor form. With limited squad depth, this has definitely caused problems for Wolves, and they’ll be looking forward to the international break which is coming up.

Summary

This upcoming match could play a crucial part in the eventual title race, as with Liverpool performing so well in the league lately, Manchester City will need to up their form in order to capitalize on a struggling Wolves side. This game becomes especially important for the Cityzens given they’re playing at home. In the league, most of Manchester City’s poor form has come when playing away from home, and a disappointing result to Spurs was the only home game that they dropped points in. They did deserve to beat Spurs though, and they have actually been very dominant when at their own ground, scoring 14 in 3 games, while conceding just 2. This will obviously be worrying for Wolves but they will take comfort in the fact that they are  masters at employing a deep-block. Wolves never typically dominate possession as they’re averaging just 45% in league play, and like mentioned earlier, they often thrive off very few chances. This could give them hope in this match, as they just need one or two counter-attacking scenarios to get something out of this game, and given the state of City’s defence at the moment, you wouldn’t put it past them to find the back of the net. However, the dominance that Manchester City are likely to display could be too much for their opposition, and given Wolves’ poor creative form, I’m going to predict a 2-0 City win.