Everton and Their 4-4-2 - GW 28: Everton vs. Manchester United

Everton vs. Manchester United

Everton and Their 4-4-2

Everton could be playing in Europe next season. And quite frankly anyone could. With just 5 points separating 5th through 11th, the possibilities are endless for teams in that area of the table. 

Also, with City’s potential Champions League ban, it’s entirely possible that the team who finish in 8th could be playing in the Europa League for the 2020/21 campaign.

Ahead of Everton’s crunch tie against Manchester United this weekend, let’s look into Everton’s chances regarding making the top 8, and why they look like one of the most likely teams to do so. 

At the moment, the Toffees are stuck in 11th. After their disappointing match against Arsenal on Sunday, they have fallen out of the top 10. However, this is merely a minor blip in what has been a fantastic run of form. 

As they prepare to take on 5th place Manchester United, they have won 3 of their last 6 games. And their only loss during this period came in their aforementioned game against Arsenal, in which they lost 3-2. Having gained 11 points during this 6 game spell, they are in their best form of the campaign, with new boss Carlo Ancelotti having reignited their spirits. 

Tactically, a lot has changed since the Italian took charge just two months ago. He has made Everton a much more solid defensive side, while he is beginning to get the best out of what is an incredibly talented forward line.

Before Ancelotti’s arrival, Everton were in 15th in the league, and looked to be heading towards a relegation battle. Marco Silva, who was manager at the time, largely employed a 4-2-3-1 formation, and sometimes operated with a 5-4-1. Neither of these formations suited the side particularly well, and the 4-2-3-1 left them especially open at the back. 

The majority of Everton’s wingers are attack-minded players, which left the Toffees exposed in the wide areas. With players such as Richarlison and Walcott often playing on either wing, they didn’t have enough support for the full-backs. Gylfi Sigurdsson was largely used as the attacking midfielder, due to his creative abilities. However; he too provides little on the defensive end of things, which left Everton’s midfield insecure. 

Now though, Ancelotti has brought his side back to the basics, employing a solid 4-4-2 formation.

This is a shape much more suited to the physical capabilities of the squad, while it also limits some of their aforementioned weaknesses. In this 4-4-2, Everton play with direct intentions, either looking to counter-attack at pace or cross the ball into the box. Defensively, their two blocks of four are incredibly difficult to bypass. 

This can be seen in their underlying numbers, which have seen huge improvements both offensively and defensively. By expected goals, Everton have the 7th best defence in the league since Ancelotti’s arrival; a breath of fresh air for the Everton fans. And what is perhaps more surprising, their attack ranks 3rd in the league behind just Liverpool and Manchester City over this period.

Quite frankly, Ancelotti has been working wonders with this attack. Playing with a front two is getting the best out of both Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison, and the way he’s using the front two suits these players extremely well. 

Ancelotti has clearly recognized the superb physical attributes of both of these strikers, and realized how he can use this to his advantage. By playing them together, they are incredibly difficult to defend. They both offer a strong aerial presence from attacking positions which is why Everton have been so committed to crossing recently. Neither of these players shy away from physical tussles inside the box, and many of their goals have come from winning the physical battle with their opposing central defensive pairing.

In this most recent run of form, Calvert-Lewin has been the star of the show. The English target-man was in fantastic form even before Ancelotti’s arrival, but has simply shot up since the Italians appointment. 

He’s scored an impressive league 12 goals this season, making up 33% of Everton’s total tally. And over his past 5 matches, he’s scored 4 and contributed with 1 assist. 7 of Calvert-Lewin’s 12 goals have come in the 10 matches since Ancelotti took charge, indicating his improvement.

Calvert-Lewin is clearly thriving in a system that is designed to get him as many chances as possible. As the focal point in the side, Everton are relying heavily on him to produce in the final third. His underlying numbers back this up, as they have exploded over this recent period. In his last 10 games, Calvert-Lewin has averaged 0.69 expected goals per 90. This is a huge improvement over the 0.53 that he was managing prior to Ancelotti’s appointment, and he actually ranks 2nd for expected goals in the Premier League over this period. 

His shot numbers have also increased. Over these 10 games, he’s been averaging 3.6 shots per match. Only Mohamed Salah has been bettering this for the whole of the season, proving the elite company that Calvert-Lewin has ascended into. 

Clearly, Calvert-Lewin has become more productive in this new system, a trend across the Everton squad. Having taken what was some already impressive form into Ancelotti’s reign, his numbers have been supercharged by the miraculous Italian.

Everton’s current system is entirely centered around Calvert-Lewin’s superb aerial ability. In a 4-4-2 with overlapping full-backs, Ancelotti has clearly put stress on getting the ball into the box from the wings. This can be seen from the increase in both shots and expected goals for Calver-Lewin, who is clearly thriving on some incredibly good service.

It can also be seen through some of his aerial stats. His 5 aerial duels won per match ranks 5th in the Premier League, and is top in the Everton squad. His aerial prowess gives Everton a different route of attack, and has allowed them to play more direct at times. 

Although Richarlison is only 5’10’’, he too is strong in the air. While he is far from being your typical target man, he is superb at attacking balls played into the box. 3 of Richarlison’s 10 Premier League goals this season have come from his head, which is only bettered by three Premier League players. Despite his size, he remains a strong aerial target. 

Physically, Richarlison is immense. He is a lot stronger than one might think, while he’s incredibly aggressive both with and without the ball. It’s this aggressive nature that allows him to be such a threat of balls into the box.

He is also one of the paciest players in the Everton squad, which has been instrumental to them playing on the break. Their 3 counter-attacking goals this season ranks 7th in the Premier League, and Richarlison has played a key role in this. In the Everton squad, only Seamus Coleman completes more dribbles per match than Richarlison’s 1.7,  as he is frequently tasked with bringing the ball forwards on the break. His success rate of 61.3% is also fairly impressive, especially for someone playing in an advanced area of the field. 

Due to Richarlison’s ball carrying abilities, he’s the perfect partner for Calvert-Lewin. They each offer different progressive options, as Calvert-Lewin thrives off of longer passes while Richarlison is better with the ball at his feet. 

Most importantly, however, are their respective physical attributes. They are both incredibly combative forwards, which makes Everton’s system so effective. In what is often seen as a rather old-school formation, both Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison provide a classic forward partnership, who are willing to get the ball in the back of the net at all costs. 

This success, however, is entirely reliant on the service that the frontmen receive. In the current system, Ancelotti has geared everything around getting the ball into the box. 

Although the formation is perhaps indicative of this, Everton are currently employing a heavily crossing-based system. Not only has Ancelotti selected crossing-based wingers since he has arrived, but he’s also heavily encouraged the full-backs in the side to get forwards and attack. 

Players like Djibril Sidibe and Theo Walcott have been given a healthy number of minutes over the more technically-gifted players in the squad. In fact, only Jordan Pickford and the aforementioned Calvert-Lewin have been given more minutes than Sidibe since Ancelotti’s arrival. Sidibe has clearly become a favourite of the manager in recent weeks, playing most often on the right wing. Although he has been a full-back throughout his career, Ancelotti has found a place for him further up the field due to his ball-playing abilities.

Out of players who have played more than 500 minutes in the Everton squad, Sidibe ranks 3rd for crosses per 90 on 0.9. A further 0.24 of these are being played into the penalty area. By comparison, these are the best crossing numbers of his career, while most of his other passing statistics have seen a decline since his move to Merseyside last summer.

When Sidibe hasn’t been used out on the right, or has been playing at full-back, it’s often Theo Walcott who has stepped in. Walcott is another player who wasn’t favoured by manager Marco Silva, but has been accommodated by Ancelotti. Walcott has managed more minutes than both Iwobi and Bernard since Ancelotti’s arrival, indicating his frequent presence on the wing. His Premier League minutes under Ancelotti account for 46% of the total minutes that he’s played in the league this season.

Both Sidibe and Walcott have seemingly been used for their ability to cross the ball, so it’s interesting to note that Ancelotti hasn’t installed a similar presence on the left-hand side of midfield. Over Everton’s past few matches, Ancelotti has used Sigurdsson, Bernard and Iwobi interchangeably on the left hand side. None of them have stood out in particular, and none of them are typical crossing based wingers. 

The main reason for this, is the presence of Luca Digne. The French left-back has been one of the best deliverers of a ball in the league since his arrival in England last year, and is continuing his superb output this campaign. In the Everton squad, he ranks first for crosses per 90, and is delivering upwards of 1 cross into the box per match. In fact, he ranks 3rd in the whole of the Premier League for crosses per match with 2.3, which is only bettered by Kevin De Bruyne and Trent Alexander-Arnold.

For this reason, Ancelotti has preferred right-footed players on the left side of midfield; who can cut in and act as creative players. 

With both Sidibe and Digne on the wings though, Everton and Ancelotti have clearly built a system aimed at getting the ball into the box. And when you have the likes of Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison to aim at, it’s always likely that you’re going to be generating solid attacking numbers.

As Everton prepare to take on Manchester United on Saturday, they can take comfort in their solid recent form. However; United are a force to be reckoned with and have also been making progress lately.

Manchester United are now unbeaten in each of their last 3 league matches, while they humiliated Club Brugge in the Europa League on Thursday. Having added Bruno Fernandes to their ranks in January, they look a much more difficult prospect than they did a few weeks back. Especially when going up against a 4-4-2 you’d expect Fernandes to thrive, dropping in between Everton’s two flat blocks of four.

Although Everton have certainly made massive progress towards achieving their goals, it seems unlikely that they’ll emerge with all three points here. Both teams are in good form, and with Everton at home, I’d expect a draw. My final prediction is 2-2.