GW 24: Wolves vs. Liverpool

Wolves vs. Liverpool

Wolves have become the Premier League’s giant killers ever since their promotion at the start of the 18/19 campaign, and at the moment there’s no bigger giant in world football than Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool. The Reds are currently both European and world champions while they come into this midweek fixture with a 16 point lead at the summit of the Premier League table. In short, they’ve become imperious. After 22 matches, they remain undefeated in the league, having gained 64 points from a possible 66. They are well on course to finish the season with a record number of points, and could even go unbeaten. However, they certainly won’t have it easy in their next league match. Wolves have already beat Manchester City twice this year in the Premier League, while they’ve earned draws against both Leicester and Arsenal. And in their earlier match against Liverpool, they lost just 1-0. In fact, many will argue that they were unlucky to lose in this match, as they had a goal disallowed by VAR for a tight offside call. While Liverpool were the dominant side for most of the match, a 1-0 loss at Anfield certainly isn’t the worst thing in the world.

Wolves

Since their loss to Liverpool just 4 matches ago, Wolves have struggled to regain their league consistency. Having gone on an 11 game unbeaten run in the Premier League earlier this campaign, they have lost to Watford and drawn with Newcastle in their last 3 matches. Most recently though, they managed to come back to win against Southampton, in a less than convincing performance. After going down 2-0 with just 35 minutes played, it looked unlikely that they would get anything from the match. However, Wolves have been the comeback kings of the Premier League this season, having gained more points from losing positions than any other side. They managed to do so yet again here, with a brace from Raul Jimenez insuring that they grabbed all three points. Because of this, they are now back on track for a Europa League finish. They sit in 6th place, level with Manchester United and just 5 points off the Champions League spots.

Despite a strong result in the end, this match will be worrying for Nuno Espirito Santo. This game marks the 8th Premier League match in a row in which Wolves have failed to keep a clean sheet, in a period in which they’ve conceded 12. And against a team like Liverpool, it’s an entirely different task to come from two goals down. When looking towards this upcoming game, Wolves will be particularly troubled by the amount of chances they gave up from crosses in their last match. Both of Southampton’s goals came from longer balls into the box, and it was something that the Wolves backline struggled with throughout the course of the 90 minutes. Liverpool, of course, have a system which is based off of crosses into the area. Their full-backs are two of the best playmakers in the league at the moment, and Wolves won’t get away with such poor defending in this next match.

While some blame must be placed on the center-backs in this regard, their wing-backs were perhaps most at fault. Southampton were able to bypass Wolves’ wing-backs countless times on the weekend, with their 4-4-2 being used to great effect. Liverpool’s 4-3-3 also puts great emphasis on using the wide areas, with the full-backs and wingers working to create two on one situations on the flanks. For this reason, Matt Doherty in particular will have to improve here. The Irishman has experienced a huge dropoff this campaign from his performances last year. His tackles and interceptions have dropped from 3.4 per match last season to 2.1 now, while his key passes have also seen a decline, as he is averaging just 0.4 per match this campaign. He struggled when up against the skillful Nathan Redmond in his last match, and things won’t be getting any easier for him when he faces Sadio Mane midweek.

Luckily for Wolves, in as many ways as Doherty has been declining, Adama Traore has been improving, making up that missing output on the right hand side. The Spaniard has shown himself as one of the best players in the league this season, as his form has been electrifying coming into this game. He’s scored 6 goals and assisted a further 4 in 19 starts this campaign, after scoring just once in the entirety of last season. What’s most impressive, however, is the progression that he brings to the squad. His 6.4 dribbles per 90 is unrivalled in the Premier League and is only bettered by Messi in Europe’s top 5 leagues. He’s also become a more complete winger this season, with 1.5 key passes and 1.3 shots per 90 as well. While he’s always been an anomaly when it comes to dribbling, the fact that he has added more creative output to his game this year is frightening. Although Liverpool have been strong defensively as of late, Traore is the type of player who makes something happen no matter his opponent.

Liverpool

Liverpool have been immaculate this campaign, and are currently looking like one of the Premier League’s greatest ever outfits. Like mentioned earlier, they comfortably sit top of the league with a resounding 16 point lead over 2nd place Manchester City. At some point you run out of superlatives to describe this Liverpool team. They are yet to lose this season, as Klopp seems to have the answer against every side they face. While in previous years they have struggled to break down deeper defensive sides, the Reds have scored in every match this season. This is also shown in the number of matches that they’ve drawn. After 22 matches this year, they have only drawn once. Last season, despite having an incredible campaign, they drew 7 times, while they drew 12 times in 17/18. The reason for this improvement can largely be credited to the defining aspect of Klopp’s system: the fullbacks.

As Robertson and Alexander-Arnold have grown in prominence over the last couple of seasons, Liverpool’s creative performances have shot up. While you wouldn’t necessarily think of the Reds as a “crossing-based” team, they certainly do rely on balls in from the flanks. Together, Liverpool’s full-backs have provided an incredible 15 assists this season. And in terms of chance creation, they each rank inside Liverpool’s top four for key passes, with Alexander-Arnold the leading chance creator in the squad. Liverpool’s full-backs have also been crucial to Liverpool’s superb run of defensive form, in which they’ve kept 7 Premier League clean sheets in a row. This all-round ability is what has propelled Liverpool forwards this year, and what has added that extra level to their play. In their upcoming match, the full-backs will be important yet again, against a Wolves side who have struggled to defend the wings recently.

 Alexander-Arnold should be particularly dangerous, as the young right-back is having a standout season for the Reds. At just 21, he is a serious contender for the PFA Player of the Year award. Despite playing right-back, only De Bruyne has assisted more than he has this campaign, with 9 assists to his name already. He also ranks 3rd in the league for key passes, only bettered by De Bruyne and Buendia. While many malign him for his defensive attributes, he is actually quite a decent defensive player. This season he is averaging 2.9 tackles and interceptions per 90; solid for a player in such a possession-dominant side. He is also being dribbled past just 1.2 times per match, just 0.4 times more than United’s Aaron Wan-Bissaka. This destroys the myth that Alexander-Arnold is a poor one-on-one defender, and furthers his case for being a crucial player in this upcoming match. Both Alexander-Arnold and Robertson help to create an attacking overload on the flanks for the Reds, and given Wolves’ recent poor performance against Southampton, Liverpool will be looking to make the most of the wide areas.

With Mo Salah in strong form as well, Liverpool could be dominant on their right side. Contrary to popular opinion, the Egyptian is having another superb season for Jurgen Klopp’s men, as his consistency since arriving at Liverpool has been frightening. He’s currently Liverpool’s joint top goalscorer in the Premier League this season with 11, despite playing more than 100 less minutes than Sadio Mane on the other wing. His recent form has been solid as well, as in his last 3 Premier League matches, he’s scored 2 and assisted 1. Salah has typically been quite strong when up against three at the back formations, as he is great at finding the space in between the center-back and the wing-back. His runs off the shoulder give Liverpool another form of attack, and his pace in the side allows for scintillating counter-attacks. With both Salah and Alexander-Arnold in great form, you’d expect much of Liverpool’s threat to come down the right flank.

Injuries

To add to Wolves’ worries, they’ve hit a troubling injury patch. Over the past season and a half, Wolves have actually been incredibly lucky with injuries and fitness issues, as they’ve rarely encountered many long-term problems. Now though, they have three big players out of action. Perhaps the least problematic is the muscle injury that Vinagre is suffering from. The young wing-back has had a decent campaign up to this point, but is still very much a rotation option, and wouldn’t start this match even if he were fit. The long term absence of Willy Boly due to an ankle injury has proven to be much more costly, as Wolves have suffered defensively without him in the side. Defensive midfielder Leander Dendoncker has had to drop in to defence over recent weeks, and has looked out of place at times. Finally, Diogo Jota has missed Wolves’ last two matches with a calf injury. Luckily for Nuno Espirito Santo and his men, youngster Pedro Neto has come into great form recently, picking up from where Jota left off.

For Liverpool, their injury crisis finally seems to be passing by, with a number of key players returning to fitness. After lengthy periods on the touchline, both Joel Matip and Fabinho were named on the Reds’ bench in their last match against United, while Fabinho made his first appearance since November. Both of these players will provide a massive boost to the squad over the coming weeks, and you’d expect Fabinho to be involved in this upcoming match; possibly as a starter. It’s not all good news for Liverpool, however, with a few players still out of action. Dejan Lovren is still suffering with a muscle problem, but is expected to return shortly. More worrying issues come in midfield where both James Milner and Naby Keita are struggling. Milner has picked up a muscle injury as well, and could be sidelined for some time. Liverpool fans will be most concerned about Naby Keita, however, who can’t seem to stay fit at the moment. Every time he finds his rhythm, he seems to pick up a lengthy injury, and this has proven to be the case yet again. 

Predictions & Summary

With the way this season is turning out, this is a massive game for both sides involved, but for very different reasons. Liverpool have been rampant up to this point, and will be looking to cement their place in history if they manage to keep their form going. For Wolves, they have a great chance at securing European football for a second consecutive season. And with the quality of some of the bigger clubs dropping this year, Wolves could even be in the running for a Champions League place, which would be incredible for a side who were promoted just two seasons ago. Nuno Espirito Santo and his men are currently just 5 points away from this goal. With both Manchester United and Chelsea facing difficult tests this gameweek, Wolves could have the opportunity to make up ground here, despite playing the league leaders. 

The game will be played at Molineux, which will obviously give Wolves an advantage. Although they haven’t been brilliant when at home this season, collecting just 17 points from 11 matches in front of their own fans, their latest win at Molineux came against Manchester City. This is indicative of their record against the elite clubs in the division over the past couple of seasons. Their style is well-suited to matches against dominant sides, as they have been brilliant on the counter-attack since returning to the Premier League. Saying this, Liverpool look unlikely to be beaten. At the moment, the Reds seem to be in a league of their own. Although Wolves have been strong against Manchester City and Leicester this year, Liverpool have already dispatched of both of these sides. Despite their home advantage and their tendency to cause an upset, I don’t believe Wolves will win here. My final prediction is 2-0 Liverpool.