GW 20: Arsenal vs. Chelsea

Arsenal vs. Chelsea

Now, having reached the midway point in the 2019/20 Premier League campaign, we can sit back and reflect on what a surprising start to the season it’s been. And as we look towards the year’s last round of fixtures, Arsenal and Chelsea are set to face in a crucial London Derby. Both of these teams have been surprising this year, however; for entirely different reasons. While for Chelsea it was a summer of dismay, they have managed to rebound spectacularly at the start of this campaign in order to find themselves in a Champions League position. In Arsenal’s case, they have thoroughly disappointed their fanbase up to this point, having endured a dreadful season thus far. The odds seemed heavily stacked against Chelsea at the beginning of the campaign, yet they have managed to surpass expectations and they currently sit 8 points ahead of this Arsenal side. The clubs are currently separated by 7 places in the table, indicating the gulf in quality between them. This hasn’t, however, been the case over recent years. In fact, over the last 4 Premier League games between these sides, they have come out even. While the most recent game ended in an Arsenal win back in January, Chelsea also won once last season, and the two games during the 2017/18 campaign ended in draws.

Arsenal

This Arsenal side is far from what they used to be, and they look even worse than they were last year despite having a poor 2018/19 campaign. They are currently in horrendous form, having won just 1 of their last 11 league matches. This has left them outside the top 10 as we approach the start of the new year, not the ideal way to end the decade. This run of poor form has come during a period of instability for Arsenal, with 3 managers having taken charge over this 11 game period. With interim manager Freddie Ljungberg failing to make an impression, Arsenal fans witnessed a familiar face return to the team on Boxing Day. Mikel Arteta took charge for Arsenal’s last match against Bournemouth, and the result has warranted varied responses. Although they failed to win, there were a number of promising signs for future games. 

Defensively, they remained poor, however; it was some of their attacking play that impressed the Arsenal faithful. They dominated the ball with 62% possession, while they seemed to be a more fluid attacking side than they were under both Emery and Ljungberg. Arteta started his reign as Arsenal manager by employing a 4-2-3-1, with Ozil playing in behind a pacey front three. By playing this way, Arteta was clearly showing his attacking intent, as well as the possession-based playing style that he attempted to implement. Now though, Arsenal look forwards to a much more difficult proposition against a solid Chelsea side. Arteta’s tactical potential as a manager is yet to be seen at this point, but it will be interesting to see whether or not he adapts to this different challenge. While Ozil was able to play a key role in their match against Bournemouth, Chelsea’s midfield three are a much stronger prospect, and one that may require a change in system.

One of the most notable changes in Arteta’s first match was Arsenal’s improvement during transition. The midfield looked much stronger against Bournemouth than they have for most of the season, and Xhaka played a crucial role in that. Although Xhaka has a number of clear weaknesses, he performed well in this match, and it looks like he could have an important role under the new manager. Despite his defensive downfalls, Xhaka has always been a reliable passer of the ball, and is great when it comes to getting the ball into the final third. In this last match he managed to make the most passes with 96, while he also made 3 key passes which was only bettered by the aforementioned Ozil. In this upcoming match his range of passing can be used to get the ball into the forwards more frequently, so that Arsenal can put more pressure on Chelsea’s unstable backline.

One of the main reasons that Xhaka was able to perform well to such an extent, was the presence of Lucas Torreira at the base of the side. While Xhaka is a great progressive passer, his defensive play leaves much to be desired, as he is frequently at fault for Arsenal’s poor defensive performances. With Torreira in the squad though, Arsenal have a more defensive midfield player who is able to shield the backline, and protect Xhaka. At the beginning of the season, Torreira seemingly fell out of favour with boss Unai Emery, as he rarely started and was played out of position frequently. Although he was brought back into the starting lineup under Ljungberg, their counter-attacking style of play didn’t seem to suit Torreira. In a more possession-based system, Torreira might finally return to his best. The Uruguayan is quite clearly Arsenal’s best midfielder from a defensive standpoint, as he is averaging 4.1 tackles and interceptions per 90, the best for an Arsenal midfielder. Chelsea obviously have a wide range of attacking talent, and Torreira’s defensive presence from the middle of the field should be crucial.

Chelsea

Chelsea have been experiencing a season opposite to Arsenal’s in that they have far exceeded their expectations up to this point. Given their transfer ban and lack of an experienced manager, many fans and pundits alike touted this Chelsea side for a season of disappointment outside of their typical Champions League position. Despite this, they have risen to the challenge brilliantly, as Frank Lampard has inspired this young Chelsea outfit. However, they are not dissimilar to Arsenal in that they are going through an extremely poor period of form. After the first 10 to 15 matches of the new season, Chelsea looked nailed on to finish in a Champions League position. Recently though, they have lost 5 of their last 7 Premier League games, in a period that has really tested their stability and determination. Their most recent game was especially disappointing, as they lost 2-0 to a struggling Southampton side.

In all honesty, Chelsea have been quite unlucky to endure such a poor run of form, as there has been minimal dropoff since the start of the campaign. While they have gained just 6 points over their last 7 games, expected points estimates that this should be closer to 12 with the way they have played. This shows that although their results have been poor, the signs of a solid team are still there, and they remain favourites against a side like Arsenal. Their last match will be a worry though, as it was one of their worst in recent memory. They took just 10 shots in the match, while they were troubled on the counter-attack. While it’s difficult to know how Arsenal will play in this match, Chelsea could be in trouble if the Gunners are set up to counter. With players like Aubameyang, Pepe and Ozil in the Arsenal squad, they have the potential to be a dangerous counter-attacking side. Although you would assume that Arteta would take on a more possession-based approach, the thought of such a menacing frontline will trouble Frank Lampard.

Chelsea have yet again been experimenting with a back three over recent games though, which has seemingly improved their defensive performances. In both of these last two matches in which they have employed a back three, it’s been the young Fikayo Tomori who has impressed the most. In fact, it was Tomori’s absence from the squad that correlated heavily with Chelsea’s drop in form. Tomori missed 3 games due to injury, between matchweeks 15 and 17, in a period in which Chelsea failed to keep a clean sheet. They conceded a total of 5 goals throughout these 3 games, with a particularly poor defensive performance against Everton in a 3-1 loss. Now that he has returned to their defence though, on the left side of their back three, results have shot up massively. In their last two games they have incredibly conceded just 10 shots, with just 1.26 expected goals against across the matches. His return to the Chelsea backline has been to great effect over the last couple of games, and his defensive prowess as well as his abilities on the ball should be crucial against a potent attacking outfit.

This three at the back shape also provides a couple of attacking benefits, particularly in the form of Marcos Alonso. While Alonso struggles in a four at the back, due to his poor defensive attributes, a role at wingback allows him to get in on the attack without as much defensive risk. Surprisingly, Alonso was actually left out of Chelsea’s last match against Southampton, despite playing a prominent role in Chelsea’s 0-2 victory over Spurs. Given Chelsea’s poor performance last time out, you would expect him to be brought back into the side here. On the left flank, he adds another source of creativity as well as an outlet in the wide areas. From wingback, he averages an impressive 1.4 key passes per 90, and is a clear attacking threat. If Chelsea do continue with a three at the back formation, you would expect Alonso to be brought back into the side, especially with how they struggled creatively in their last match.

Injuries

One of the reasons behind Arsenal’s severely disappointing start to the campaign has been their ongoing injury crisis. Despite a number of players returning from injury just a month or so ago, they have fallen back into a period of injury overload, as their situation has worsened over the past few weeks. Most of their current problems come in defence, which somewhat explains their atrocious defensive form. At the moment they are without a left-back as both Kolasinac and Tierney are expected to be absent for long periods of time. They also face absences to both Sokratis and Holding at centre-back, who are suffering from minor injuries making their return doubtful. Finally, Bellerin’s lengthy injury woes persist, as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury that he suffered a few weeks back. This has left Arsenal with limited defensive options over the last few games, illustrating why they have struggled to keep a clean sheet. 

Chelsea’s situation has been similar to Arsenal’s this season, but they finally seem to be coming off a rough period of injuries. They should only be missing two players coming into this match, with many key players recovering recently. What’s more, the two players who are out of action for them are both periphery figures, and their absences shouldn’t cause major disturbances to the side. Perhaps the more worrying of the two is the ankle injury that young full-back Reece James has suffered recently. Although he has not necessarily been a crucial player for Chelsea this season, you feel that he is more adept in a right-wingback role than Azpilicueta is, and he would have been able to fill in nicely in this formation. The only other problem that Lampard is facing is the long term injury to Ruben Loftus-Cheek. Loftus-Cheek is yet to play due to injury this season, meaning his problem shouldn’t affect Lampard’s short-term plans. The final thing to consider for both Arsenal and Chelsea is the extreme fixture congestion during the Christmas period. With both clubs having played just 3 days ago, they may be forced to rest some of their usual starters despite this fixture’s derby status.

Summary & Prediction

These sides have each experienced some dramatic highpoints over the last couple of decades, but as we reach the end of the 2010s, neither side is necessarily where they’d like to be. Looking forward into the new decade, both of these sides have an extreme amount of work on their hands if they want to obtain the glory that they have become familiar with in the past. But at this moment, all that the managers will be thinking about is this upcoming match: their last of 2019. Although these sides are 7 places apart in the league table, Arsenal could narrow the gap between them to just 5 points, as they are still very much in the race for European spots, and potentially even Champions League football. However, this fixture is just as crucial to Chelsea, who risk dropping out of the Champions League places in this match. Despite half of the season having gone by, the range from 4th to 11th is merely 8 points, illustrating the congestion of the table.

In a derby game, particularly a London Derby, the atmosphere becomes a crucial part of the match. In this sense, Arsenal should have an advantage. Although The Emirates Stadium has become known for it’s toxicity over the past couple of months, a more positive feeling has arrived along with the new manager, and the promise of change. Arsenal’s home form this year has been far from impressive, as they rank as the 15th best home side in the division based on points. They are now incredibly winless in each of their last 5 home matches in the Premier League, having lost each of their last 2. Along with this, Chelsea have a fairly solid away record, having won 6 of their 9 Premier League away games this campaign. Here though, Arsenal have a chance to redeem themselves after a poor year in their history, as they face one of their closest rivals in recent times. With both of these clubs going through a tough transition period, this match can symbolize whether they are progressing or regressing at the end of the year. Personally, I believe Chelsea’s strong season so far cannot be discounted, and for this reason I believe the match will end 1-2 to the Blues.