GW 19: Leicester vs. Liverpool

Leicester vs. Liverpool

In a season packed full of surprises thus far, the Premier League table looks far from settled as we look towards the midway point. One of the biggest shocks in the English top flight this year has obviously been the extreme success of Leicester, who have surpassed everyone’s expectations. On this year’s round of Boxing Day fixtures, high-flying Leicester City are set to face table-toppers Liverpol in a potentially season-defining match. These teams currently make up the top 2 in this season’s Premier League, and although they are split by 10 points, all is still to play for over the second half of the season, as both teams have a shot at winning the title. Liverpool could, however, end Leicester’s hopes here. These sides have already faced once this season in the Premier League, in a match that ended 2-1 in Liverpool’s favour. While Leicester have lost just 3 games all season, they were thoroughly dominated in this latest match with the Reds. In all honesty, they were lucky to come out of this last encounter with only a 2-1 defeat. Expected goals had the match at 3.75 to 0.10 in Liverpool’s favour, and big changes will have to be made if Leicester are to succeed here.

Leicester

Leicester have been a revelation so far this campaign, yet again proving themselves as one of the best teams in the division. After their brilliant 2015/16 season, they have since fallen into mid-table mediocrity, with a 9th placed finish the best they’ve managed since that point. Now though, they are shocking the world yet again, finding themselves in 2nd place. They have obviously been in superb form to achieve such lofty heights, however; over their last couple of matches they have seen a slight decline. They are now without a win in each of their last two games, a worrying sign for a team who had previously won 8 on the bounce. These two matches include a 1-1 draw with Norwich, and a more important 3-1 loss to Manchester City at the Etihad. With City currently in 3rd, this was obviously a crucial game for Brendan Rodgers and Leicester, as the gap between them has now been reduced to just 1 point.

This loss to City also highlights an overarching issue that Leicester have been facing this season. This is their inability to gain results against the leagues better sides. In their 6 matches against the historical “top 6” in the Premier League this season, they have won just 2 games, gaining just 7 points against these sides. In their other 11 matches, they have gained an astonishing 32 points out of 36. This shows that they are impressive when facing the leagues weaker teams, but they struggle when met by higher quality opponents. This was highlighted the last time they played Liverpool, with a number of worrying problems shown in that game. In that match, Leicester were consistently exposed both on the flanks, and on the counter-attack. Given the compact nature of Leicester’s back four, Liverpool were merely able to expose the wide areas through the use of their full-backs. Also, Liverpool created many of their best opportunities off of fast breaks, with Leicester incapable of nullifying Liverpool’s pacey wingers.

You would anticipate a number of changes coming into this upcoming game, as Brendan Rodgers will know how much his side struggled. No matter the system though, Wilfried Ndidi will be crucial to Leicester’s defensive ambitions. Despite a poor performance from Leicester as a whole, Ndidi was fairly impressive in the Liverpool match as he has been all season. He managed to make 5 tackles and interceptions, along with a game high 5 dribbles. He also had the 2nd highest pass accuracy in the Leicester squad with 86%, and he wasn’t dispossessed a single time. This is indicative of the general form that Ndidi has shown this season, as despite being just 23 years old, he is leading his side from the base of midfield. In this upcoming match, his defensive prowess will be vital to Leicester’s chances in this game. Given his position, he will be in a crucial area to stop counter-attacking play. When Liverpool play on the counter, Ndidi will be required to nullify the creative abilities of Firmino, who often drops deeper to orchestrate Liverpool’s attacks.

In order for Leicester to be more defensively sound though, Hamza Choudhury could be brought back into the starting lineup. Although Choudhury is clearly not a regular starter in Brendan Rodgers’ preferred lineup, he brings a sense of defensive solidity that Leicester’s other midfielders don’t. Both Maddison and Tielemans who typically play in front of Ndidi in midfield are naturally attacking players, who bring more creative force than defensive discipline. For this reason, Choudhury has started a number of Leicester’s big games this year. In the early parts of this season, he was given a starting role in their matches against Chelsea, Sheffield United and Manchester United. Recently though, he has fallen out of favour, having played just 42 minutes in their last 13 Premier League games. Perhaps this has been to their disadvantage though. In the 3 aforementioned games that Choudhury started in, Leicester were averaging 0.99 expected goals conceded per match. This is lower than their overall league average of 1.19, despite playing some of the stronger sides in the division.

Liverpool

At this stage, it’s a well known fact that Liverpool are one of the best teams in the world at the moment, and quite clearly the best side in England. In terms of their performances this season, they certainly deserve those titles. They are, of course, at the top of the Premier League table as we head into Christmas, with a demanding lead over the other sides in the division. Despite having played a game less, they are currently 10 points ahead of Leicester in 2nd, as well as a further 11 points ahead of Manchester City, who are perhaps their closest title rivals. City were, however, able to gain points on Liverpool last weekend, as the Reds were in Qatar playing for the title of World Champions. Regardless of their absence from Premier League football, they still come into this game in great form, having won both of their games at the Club World Cup. This is without mentioning the fact that they have won each of their last 8 Premier League games, while they are undefeated in a further 34.

With the form Liverpool are in, you won’t expect them to be changing much over the next few weeks, and they certainly won’t make many changes here considering their previous domination over Leicester. Last time out, Klopp got his game plan spot on. While Liverpool’s average possession in the league this season has been 57.6%, they kept just 50.7% the last time they faced the Foxes. This allowed them to play on the break in a way that they haven’t been able to for much of this season. When Leicester have the ball, they tend to push their midfielders and their full-backs forwards, which in turn leaves plenty of space for Liverpool’s forwards to attack into. If Leicester do take on a more counter-attacking style of play in this game, Liverpool can play similarly to how Manchester City did last week. This was by keeping possession, but looking to expose through the wide areas. Although Liverpool don’t play with wide wingers like City do, Liverpool could look to achieve this through their full-backs.

Leicester looked particularly vulnerable on their left hand side in their last game, meaning Trent Alexander-Arnold could be important in this match. With the way Liverpool play, the full-backs provide the width to the side, while they are also the most important creative players. Alexander-Arnold has made a huge step up over the past couple of seasons, and despite being just 21, he is one of Klopp’s regular starters. This season he has more assists than any other Liverpool player with 6, proving his creative abilities. He is also averaging more key passes than any other player in the Liverpool squad with 3.1, an impressive figure considering his position. In this game, he can look to provide his side with a crucial source of width. A feature of Leicester’s matches against both Liverpool and Manchester City this season has been their inability to deal with attacks from the flanks. Their full-backs tend to operate quite centrally when out of possession, meaning Alexander-Arnold will have plenty of time to deliver his world-renowned crosses from the wing.

This will also provide Mohamed Salah with a chance to shine. Despite his doubters and critics, Salah has been having another superb season on the right of Liverpool’s front three. He is their joint top scorer in the Premier League this campaign with 9 goals in 14 matches. He is astonishingly contributing to a goal every 91 minutes in the league this season, or essentially once every game. After viewing Leicester’s game against Manchester City, it’s clear to see how Salah could be effective here. In Leicester’s last game, City winger Riyad Mahrez dominated Ben Chilwell, putting in an impressive performance. Chilwell was unable to deal with Mahrez’s pace and trickery, and the Algerian was continuously able to cut in on his left foot. Salah can look to play a similar role for Liverpool. While Salah’s dribbling numbers are lower than Mahrez’s this season, he too has extreme pace as well as a deadly left foot. If he’s on form, he and Alexander-Arnold could look to cause havoc down Liverpool’s right flank.

Injuries

Throughout this busy Christmas period, injury issues are more likely than ever due to the amount of games that these sides have to play. While most leagues give teams a brief break around this time of year, the Premier League’s packed schedule requires Boxing Day fixtures. However, Leicester have been extremely fortunate this year on the injury front, and they look solid coming into this game. One of the main reasons that they have managed such overwhelming success this season has been their extreme lack of injury problems hampering the side. This has allowed them to challenge teams like Liverpool and Manchester City, despite these bigger clubs having much deeper squads. As we look forward to this match, Leicester could be missing a maximum of  just one player. In their senior squad, Harvey Barnes is the only player at risk of missing out here. The young winger suffered a slight ankle injury in Leicester’s last game, making him a doubt for this game.

For Liverpool, the problems look much more severe. This busy period has hit the Reds hard, and with the numerous competitions that they have been playing in over the last month, it’s no surprise that they’re struggling. Defensively, their issues are well documented, as they are missing two of their main centre-backs. Both Lovren and Matip are out of action coming into this game, leaving Liverpool with just two central defensive options. Defensive-midfielder Fabinho is also suffering from a long-term ankle injury, however; he should be back in action soon. The final major name on the Reds’ injury list is central-midfielder Oxlade-Chamberlain. This is obviously a huge worry for Jurgen Klopp and his staff, as Oxlade-Chamberlain has been in great form recently, and of course he is just coming off of a lengthy period on the sidelines. Luckily, while he’ll definitely miss this match, he shouldn’t be out for too long as he has merely injured his ankle this time round.

Summary & Prediction

Although Liverpool come into this with an injury disadvantage, they certainly travel to the King Power Stadium with the better form, and the more proven tactical set up. Liverpool are, of course, quite a ways in front of Leicester at the moment as they head into this match against the Foxes. Along with this, their performance in the previous match between the sides can’t be underrated. This great result against Leicester earlier in the year will give Jurgen Klopp and his men a huge amount of confidence. It also potentially forces Rodgers into changing his gameplan, and potentially risking the precious points. Like mentioned earlier, this fixture is crucial when looking at the overall title race, as the gap between these teams could be closed to just 7 points with a Leicester win.

Considering that Leicester are at home, they need to get a result here. Leicester have been superb when at home this season, another reason for their surprising success in the Premier League this year. They are yet to lose when at the King Power, having won 7 and drawn 2: the second best home record in the division. Leicester also boast the best home defensive record in the league, having incredibly conceded just 5 goals in 9 matches. Liverpool, however, have been unstoppable when both home and away this campaign. The Reds have the best home record in the division having collected 22 from a possible 24 points available to them. In any case, it’s clear to see that these are two of the top teams in England and Europe right now, which should make for a brilliant game here. Liverpool seemingly have too much quality for this Leicester team though; which was proven in the earlier match between them. Because of this, I’m predicting another 2-1 Liverpool victory, as the Reds look to extend their grip on the elusive Premier League title.