GW 17: Wolves vs. Tottenham

Wolves vs. Tottenham

With 16 Premier League gameweeks having been played, the halfway point of the 2019/20 campaign is rapidly approaching, as we look forwards towards the end of the decade. At this stage of the season, the Premier League table is still fairly unstable, and two teams who have moved into Europa League spots recently are Wolves and Tottenham. Both of these sides have demonstrated good form over the past few weeks, and they are set to play on gameweek 17. These clubs have endured similar seasons up to this point, as they both struggled to get off the mark, but have now found themselves in a position to challenge for European football, and possibly an elusive spot in the top 4. For Spurs, they have seen a massive dropoff from last season, in which they placed 4th. Wolves, however, will be relatively pleased with their campaign up to this point, and with the insecurity that teams like Manchester United and Chelsea have faced recently, they’ll be positive that they can rise even further up the table. Wolves have experienced meteoric growth over recent seasons, and at the moment, they are probably just as good as this Spurs side. When these sides met in the Premier League last season, the teams won one a piece, indicating that Wolves have joined the elite category in the Premier League.

Wolves

Although the season started poorly for Wolves, they have rebounded excellently, and they actually find themselves in a better position than they finished in last campaign. While they have experienced ups and downs this term, their recent form has been immensely consistent, as they are now incredibly unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League games. This is an indication of how good this Wolves side currently are, and the threat that they pose to other teams challenging for European places. Wolves have kept the same defensive prowess that they showed last year, only conceding 1.15 expected goals per 90. This is what has made them so strong against the bigger sides during their time in the Premier League, as they are experts at playing on the counter. While their record against a historical “top 6” opponents is not as strong this year, they have still only lost 1 of their 5 games against these clubs.

This bodes well for them in their upcoming match, as in recent games, Spurs have shown brilliant attacking ability. Also, Wolves’ system looks well set up to deal with the way that Spurs attack. Under Mourinho, and indeed under Pochettino as well, Spurs always attack very centrally, with three or four attacking players taking up central positions at all times. With players like Son and Moura on the wings, their wingers are often encouraged to make central runs, and to pressure the opposing central defenders. In Wolves’ case though, they might be better equipped to deal with this. With the three at the back system that they employ, they have plenty of defensive cover in central areas, while they have one of the best midfield pairings in the league. Mourinho’s Spurs side are brilliant at moving from front to back quickly, but if Wolves are able to stay disciplined when out of possession, they could find glory on the break. 

Neves will obviously be crucial to this from his position at the heart of midfield. He has been consistently brilliant for Nuno Espirito Santo’s men, and along with Moutinho, he runs this Wolves side. While Moutinho is more of a creative player, Neves anchors the side, providing both a defensive enforcer, as well as a source of progression. His defensive numbers have actually dropped massively this season, as he is now making just 2.6 tackles and interceptions per 90. Joao Moutinho on the other hand, as seen his tackle and interceptions rise, and perhaps Neves has been given a more conservative, or possession-based role this season. He will have a lot of defensive work to do in this match though, and he might be forced to drop deeper than usual. This is because of the threat that Dele Alli poses for this Spurs side under Mourinho, and Neves might be repositioned in order to nullify the attacking midfielder.

Moutinho has perhaps been even better than Neves this campaign, and despite turning 33 just a few months ago, he seems to be enjoying his football more than ever. This has perhaps been aided by the switch from a 3-5-2 back to a 3-4-3 this campaign, which has meant that Moutinho has had a role just alongside Neves. Moutinho has been making an incredible 5 tackles and interceptions per 90 this season, far better than his defensive-midfield counterpart. Much of this comes through his ability to press, which will be important in this game in order to limit the amount of long-balls Spurs play. If Moutinho and the rest of the Wolves teams can press successfully, Spurs won’t be able to spring the quick counter-attacks that they have relied on recently. Moutinho is also obviously an incredible creative player, and is averaging 2.1 key passes per 90 this season. This is the best in the Wolves squad at the moment, and his passing ability could prove to be useful on the break.

Tottenham

Like Wolves, Spurs have been experiencing somewhat of a renaissance recently, and while they haven’t been as consistent as their upcoming opponents, they too will be hoping to challenge those Champions League spots. At the moment they are just 6 points off the Chelsea side who sit in 4th, while they have enjoyed much better form recently. With Jose Mourinho taking charge just a few weeks ago, they have now won 3 of the 4 games under his tenure. This is as many wins as they managed in their first 12 league games under Pochettino, and Jose has brought a more positive feel to the club. While it’s yet to be seen if this is simply a new manager boost, Spurs have been fairly impressive over the last few weeks, averaging 3 goals per match over this four-game period.

He has clearly improved the attacking output at the club, which is not something that you would necessarily associate Mourinho with. He has turned his team into a devastating counter-attacking side, which was proved by their last game in which they won 5-0 over Burnley. In this match they had just 49% possession, but continuously created high quality chances on the break. This style of play suits the pace and power that Spurs have in their forward line, as well as the ball playing abilities of their defenders. Against Wolves though, their strategy could be in jeopardy. Wolves average just 47% possession in the league, and Tottenham could struggle to find opportunities to counter. Whether this warrants a change in system or not we’ll have to wait and see, but you’d think it’s unlikely that Mourinho shys away from his usual tactics. Without any supreme creators in the squad, this could leave Spurs lacking chance creation, while they might also be vulnerable on the counter.

In all honesty, Spurs will be hoping that Wolves take control of the possession, in order for their attackers to continue their strong form. One player who has been superb during Mourinh’s reign is Son, who has seemingly stepped up in this new system. In the 5 matches that he has played since Mourinho took charge, 4 of these coming in the Premier League, he has scored 2 goals and assisted a further 5. Interestingly, Son has taken on a more creative role recently, changing from the goalscoring player that he was under Pochettino. His creative numbers have jumped massively, as 69% of his overall expected assists in the Premier League have come in the 4 games with Mourinho in charge. He is a perfect Mourinho player, as his pace and dribbling abilities have allowed him to excel in a counter-attacking system, while Mourinho even compared him to the Brazilian great Ronaldo Nazario over the weekend.

Another, perhaps more surprising, creative source for Spurs over the past few games has been Serge Aurier. Despite being somewhat of an outcast during the Pochetinho era, he has sprung to life under Mourinho from both an offensive and defensive standpoint. Due to Spurs’ lack of cover at full-back, Aurier has had to step up to be the main starter, and he is taking his opportunity brilliantly. He has started in each of Jose Mourinho’s 5 games, and in this period, he has scored 1 goal and assisted 2. In this current Spurs side, he often has the freedom to roam forwards due to their aforementioned issue with attacking width. On the right side, he is often the player providing a wide option, and therefore; he is on the end of a lot of their attacking play. Defensively, he has also made a huge step up. He is averaging an incredible 5.5 tackles and interceptions per 90, and while he is still prone to the occasional error, he has improved his defensive output massively. Against an in-form Diogo Jota, this newfound defensive ability will be crucial.

Injuries

One of the main reasons that Nuno and Wolves have managed so much success during their time in the Premier League, is their usual lack of injuries. Despite having an incredibly small squad, they have managed to sustain their form in the Premier League, which can be credited to their incredible fitness. This year though, they struggled early on in the season, and this was mostly due to their Europa League qualifying campaign. With so many more games to play, Nuno struggled with rotation, as many of his players weren’t at full fitness at times. Now though, they seem to have moved past this bump; however, they will be missing a couple players for this match. Willy Boly is obviously still missing through ankle injury that has caused him to miss 7 games now. While this will hurt their defensive prospects, the only other problem that the side is currently facing is Gibbs-White’s injury, which shouldn’t be too detrimental to the squad.

In recent seasons, Spurs have often struggled heavily with injury issues but this season things have been slightly better for them. Their main problem is in goal, as Lloris is out with a long term arm injury. Left-back Ben Davies will also be absent from this match, as he has been for their past few, while Eric Lamela has recently picked up a hamstring problem. In central midfield, Spurs are also facing some problems as both Harry Winks and Tanguy Ndombele have become doubts for this game. While this sounds like a lot to deal with, many of these problems are temporary, or not overly crucial to the side. For example, in Lloris’ case, his understudy Gazzaniga has been performing well lately, and Spurs haven’t seen much of a dropoff between the sticks. At left-back, Jan Vertonghen has stepped in well, as he fits Mourinho’s quick style of play. Vertonghen has the ball playing abilities to play in that role, while he also provides a more stable defensive presence.

Summary & Prediction

With the way that these sides have been playing recently, this could pan out to be an interesting match, as they have not only experienced similar form, but they also employ similar styles of play. Now that Mourinho has come in, Spurs are very much a counter-attacking side, as Nuno Espirito Santo’s Wolves side have always been. The two Portuguese managers have proven to be two of the best tacticians in the Premier League over their respective periods in the division, and this could prove to be a cagey and tactical affair. In all honesty, neither team has experienced success when they are forced to play with possession, but one team will have to take control of the match. 

Wolves will have home advantage in this game, which might encourage them to take the lead. At home this season, Wolves have been solid, and they haven’t lost in each of their last 5 Premier League home games. This is perhaps more indicative of their overall form though, opposed to their prospects at home, as they are also unbeaten in their last 6 away games. Spurs though, have been horrendous when away from home this season. This is one of the main reasons that they haven’t been able to push for a top 4 position, as they have gained just 6 out of a possible 24 home points this season. Although I don’t believe they’ll lose here, Wolves should be able to counter Mourinho’s  strategy with their counter-attacking style of play. I predict a 1-1 draw.