GW 24: Tottenham vs. Watford

After FA and League cup action, midweek games are back as Tottenham vs. Watford looks to be the most interesting match of gameweek 24. Both teams have been very good over the course of the season as Tottenham sit in 3rd whereas Watford sit just outside the top 6 in 7th, however, there is a massive 18 point difference between the sides. This overall form has been carried into both teams last few games as Watford are unbeaten in their last 4, admittedly with 3 draws, while Tottenham have won 4 of their last 6. Although Tottenham’s recent form has been quite good, their home form has actually been quite poor as they’ve lost their last 2 Premier League home games, to Manchester United and Wolves. Last time the teams met in the league Tottenham faced one of their only 2 home defeats of the season as Watford came back in the match to win 2-1. In most aspects of the game, Tottenham dominated but they failed to come out on top in the area that counts and they will be looking desperately to improve on their previous performance.

Tottenham have endured their best ever start to a Premier League season to date, yet they are still stuck in 3rd place as the tremendous Liverpool and Manchester City sides have found their way in front of them in the table. In the league, Tottenham have won 17 and lost 6 with surprisingly 0 draws at this stage in the competition, which has brought them 4 points ahead of 4th place Chelsea. A problem for Tottenham in this match might be their possession based approach and their ability to be caught on the counter-attack. Although Watford are not necessarily prolific at counter attacking, when Tottenham’s full-backs push forwards they leave a lot of room in behind themselves for teams to attack into. Combine this with the fact that Tottenham are without a proper defensive midfielder due to injury, and they could have a big problem on their hand in terms of defensive solidity. This issue has shown in previous matches as well as they have conceded 5 goals in their last 4, only keeping 1 clean sheet, which was against relegation candidates Cardiff. Their last match was an extremely scuffed victory where they came out on top 2-1 against 19th place Fulham, after scoring in the 94th minute. Their struggles in this match were largely due to the absence of both Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son as they weren't able to finish some high quality chances that the two aforementioned players probably would have. You would expect this problem to continue in the match at hand, and with Watford conceding 19 less goals this season, it might be even harder for Spurs to break through.

With most of Tottenham’s attacking threat gone, Christian Eriksen will be largely relied on in this match to create and possibly finish as he has done in the past. In only 15 starts and 5 substitute appearances this Premier League season, he has managed 4 goals and 8 assists as he is averaging a direct goal contribution every 118 minutes and has the 4th most assists in the league, only 2 off Eden Hazard. Although his attacking numbers haven’t been as good as in previous seasons, with only 1.8 key passes and 1.8 shots per match, his output could decide the course of the match with so many of Tottenham’s usual contributors out for various reasons. Harry Winks is another Tottenham player to watch out for as he scored the late winner in their last match which was only is 2nd goal in his entire Premier League career. In the absence of a few crucial defensive midfielders and with Dembele recently being sold to Guangzhou R&F, he’s almost guaranteed to retain his position at the base of midfield and will have the chance to impress yet again. Although he has typically been branded as a more attack-minded player, his defensive contributions have been more impressive as he is making 2.2 tackles and interceptions a game. Admittedly, he is playing a much deeper role than usual which is limiting him from hitting the attacking heights that he has previously. His transition play should be important for Spurs and you would suspect that he would be largely involved in the possession play in the upcoming match.

Watford have had one of their best seasons to date as they have found themselves in 7th, playing some good football up to this point. However, they are only 3 points ahead of 12th place Bournemouth, as the middle of the table is so closely contested at the moment. When looking at Watford’s statistics you can see that most of their attacks (36%) come from the left side of the field. You feel that they would keep this up in this match as Tottenham’s usual right-back Trippier loves to bomb forwards and could present them with a considerable amount of counter-attacking opportunities down that left side. Watford’s last match ended in a very disappointing 0-0 draw to Burnley in which many would argue Burnley were the better side. Burnley came out on top in terms of expected goals as well, as the game was predicted at 1.88 to 0.97 with Burnley outshooting Watford 11 to 9 and although Burnley had the better chances in the match they failed to capitalize on them and Watford quite luckily were able to walk away with a point. Watford will have to step up their chance creation in the match especially against a much better defence.

Jose Holebas should play a key role in this match especially in ball progression and chance creation but in the defensive end as well. Offensively, he has been one of Watford’s most effective players this season with 3 goals and 6 assists from full-back. His attacking numbers have been really good so far as he is making 1.6 key passes per match, 0.9 dribbles and 0.6 shots showing how much he likes to get involved in Watford’s attacking moves but he is also a very sound defensive player, making an unexpected 3 tackles and interceptions a game. These numbers indicate his impressive work rate which is one of his best attributes and should be crucial against a team who like to work the ball around and keep possession for large portions of the game. Doucoure is another good all round player for Watford and in his defensive midfield role he will be largely in charge of orchestrating Watford’s possession play and counter attacks. Spurs have a lot of players injured at the moment and with them being particularly limited in central midfield it will be necessary that they attack through that area to make the most of Tottenham’s depleted squad.

Spurs are facing some massive injury problems with Wanyama, Sissoko, Alli, Moura and Kane all potentially missing through injury as well as having Son out for international duty and with Moussa Dembele recently departing for Guangzhou. Defensively, Tottenham have no injury problems affecting them but you would think that they would struggle with creativity and scoring goals and with their lack of protection from defensive midfield they could see their team dominated in the midfield third. Of course, Harry Kane will be the biggest miss as the goal threat that he provides is phenomenal and in their last match they showed how much they struggle at finishing chances without him. Watford are also facing a number of injury problems but many of their injured players have a potential to return to full fitness before match day. Prodl will be sidelined for sure while Cathcart, Femenia, Doucoure and Hughes could miss out as well. The biggest problem here would be Doucoure, who we discussed earlier, as he is the heart of this Watford team and they might show frailties in both defence and attack without him running the side.

While both teams should come into the match fairly confident neither of them looked great in their last outings and we could be set for a cagey affair. Tottenham have been poor at home this season and with so many injury problems affecting their squad Watford have everything that they need to provide an upset. However it will be interesting to see if Watford will continue using a 4-2-2-2 formation or if they might switch to use a formation with more wide players in order to punish Tottenham’s full-backs for pushing forward. It should be a very tight match and with so many absences for Tottenham I don’t think they’ll be able to get all 3 points, I predict a draw, 1-1.