GW 16: Manchester City vs. Manchester United

Manchester City vs. Manchester United

With the Premier League fixtures coming thick and fast over the next few weeks, the pressure is on the teams near the top to push through this period, and nobody can afford to drop points. After the first set of midweek fixtures this season, Premier League action is returning with a bang this weekend, with the Manchester Derby to be played on Saturday. Neither of the Manchester sides have performed to their expectations this season, and although they place relatively highly in the league table, they are both some ways of their respective goals. City are currently in 3rd, 11 points of league leaders Liverpool, while United have just recently moved into a Europa League position. Despite sitting in 6th, United are 8 points away from the top 4 finish that they would have been hoping for, with a historically difficult fixture coming up next for them. Derby games always offer the highest entertainment, and this fixture has seen some crackers over the years. Over the past 2 seasons, Manchester City have won 3 of the 4 games between the sides, which has aligned with their Premier League dominance over this period. Now though, they seem to be in a bit of turmoil, and perhaps this United side can take advantage of this opportunity.

Manchester City

City have fallen off massively from seasons prior, and although they still have a chance of lifting the title this campaign, they have found themselves in a position that they are unused to. Over City’s last two campaigns, they have dropped an average of 15 points per season, but this season, they have already dropped 13. With less than half of the Premier League campaign having been played out, this is a sign of significant dropoff for a side who have become accustomed to domination under Guardiola. They did return to their usual form in their last match though, beating Burnley 4-1 away from home. Despite having won just 1 of their 3 preceding matches, they looked confident last week, and they made their attacking threat count, putting in a solid performance and obtaining the result that they deserved. 

In truth, Manchester City have quite frequently missed out on points that their performances have warranted, as they have consistently produced strong underlying numbers despite some poor results. By expected goals, they have the best attack in the league by some distance. Even defensively, an area in which they have been frequently criticized, they rank 2nd, only being bettered by their upcoming opponents Manchester United. They are, however, quite susceptible to conceding on the break, and with the pace that United have in their frontline they could face some defensive issues in this upcoming match. For Guardiola, the struggle is always in finding the balance between playing intricate attacking football, but also keeping enough defensive cover. It’s unlikely that he will shy away from his usually system in this match though, meaning City will be vulnerable to the counter-attacking football that this United side like to play.

This could make the match incredibly open, and from the heart of the City midfield, Rodri will have to help his side stay in control. While Rodri has been great since joining in the summer, he has still not offered the same assurance and dominance that Fernandinho did from holding midfield. Rodri has great individual attributes, yet he likes the tactical intelligence of the Brazilian, which often leaves City seemingly shorthanded at the back. In this match though, his first Manchester Derby, he has a chance to redeem himself in such a crucial fixture. He will obviously play a massive role in Manchester City’s gameplan from both an offensive and defensive perspective. The Spaniard has been averaging an incredible 82 passes per 90 in the Premier League this season, proving that he plays a large part in their possession-based style of play. He is also averaging 3.5 tackles and interceptions per 90, and in this match, he could be faced with a lot of defensive work.

If Rodri can stay on top of his defensive duties, he will keep Manchester City on the attacking end at all times, while he’ll free up his midfield partners to be more creative. The player that Guardiola will want to be pulling the strings is Kevin De Bruyne, who is clearly one of the best creative players in the league. After an injury ridden 2018/19 campaign, he has returned to his best this year, despite his team not managing the same heights. He currently leads the league in assists with 9, 3 more than the nearest player, while he has also racked up more expected assists than any of his competitors. He also plays in a more dynamic role than the other City attackers. City essentially play with a front four, with the left sided midfielder augmenting the forward line. De Bruyne, however, drops off into a more typical midfield role in order to facilitate play and swing in his famous crosses. In this match, against a solid defensive side, De Bruyne can look to drop away from United’s midfield line and use is range of passing to pick apart this United backline.

Manchester United

Like Manchester City, United will have been disappointed with the results that they have gained over the first few weeks of the season, and the position that that has left them in. While they won’t be terribly frustrated by their current standing of 6th, it’s the distance between them and the top 4 that will be worrying. They will, however, be feeling positive about their most recent result in the league. This was a 2-1 win over Spurs that allowed them to jump ahead of the Lilywhites in the table, and into a Europa League position. It was also a much needed win, considering their two previous matches in which they drew against Sheffield United and Aston Villa respectively. This latest result reinforces the fact that United seem to play considerably better against the bigger sides, having not lost a game against the historical top 6 this season. They have gained 8 points from the 4 matches that they have played against these sides, while they have also managed to beat high-flying Leicester in the early parts of this campaign.

This indicates that United are more suited to a counter-attacking style of play. With Pogba having been out for some time now, they lack the ability to break through deep-lying sides, which has seen them draw or lose to a number of the teams near the bottom of the table. This is a massive positive for this match though, as they could manage to find success on the break against City. With the pace that United have throughout their attack, they have the chance to expose City in certain circumstances in the same way that teams like Wolves and Liverpool have done already this season. Particularly in the wide areas, Manchester United could look to harm this Manchester City side. With the way that City tend to play, their full-backs stay relatively central while attacking, in order to help their side keep possession. If Manchester United's wingers stay sharp, you feel that they could have a number of counter-attacking opportunities if they make use of the flanks.

With the form that Marcus Rashford is in on the wing, you’d expect him to have a big impact on the match proceedings. His pace and ability on the ball is one of the main reasons that United have been so threatening on the break this campaign, while he has seemingly stepped up to the challenge of becoming United’s main goalscorer. Despite playing on the wing, Rashford has already scored 9 Premier League goals this campaign, the 4th best in the division, while he has added 4 assists in the process. He has also racked up more expected goals than any other player in the league, on 10.42, proving how influential he is in United’s attacking play. Even when playing on the wing, Rashford is heavily involved in United’s end product, which is a great sign for this upcoming game. While United won’t dominate the ball, you feel that they can still generate high quality chances if players like Rashford and James can get in behind the defence from the wide areas.

Another player who will be crucial in countering Manchester City’s style of play is Scott McTominay. With McTominay having returned from injury, he was able to play in United’s last match against Spurs, and to great effect. His defensive presence was shown in this last game, as United instantly became a more reliable defensive force. In the two games that he missed, United averaged 1.32 expected goals against, when playing Sheffield United and Aston Villa, compared to their usual average of 0.91. Also, with him in midfield, they managed to keep Spurs to just 0.54 expected goals. With the way that Manchester City play, they tend to have three or four attacking players in central areas at all times, and McTominay’s role, at the heart of midfield, will obviously be crucial. While he is not the most talented player, his understanding and acceptance of his defensive positioning makes him an important defensive player in this United side.

Injuries

One of the main reasons for both of these sides’ regression from previous seasons is the severe amount of injuries that they have faced, particularly in Manchester City’s case. Throughout Guardiola’s tenure as City manager, he has had very little to deal with in terms of injury issues, until this season, and you can see that he is struggling to deal with it. He will now regret having not signed a center-back in the summer, as both Stones and Laporte have missed portions of the season already, while Laporte is still out at this point. Along with Laporte, Sane is also recovering from his long-term injury, and is still a while off his return date. Recently; Sergio Aguero has also found himself on the medical bed. Aguero has now missed two matches through injury, and while City haven’t missed him too badly, having scored 6 goals across these games, his absence will obviously be felt against a stronger defensive side.

Manchester United have also been hampered by injuries this campaign; however, their situation has become far better over recent weeks, with some key personnel returning to action. The aforementioned Scott McTominay has now recovered from his ankle problem, while his midfield partner, Paul Pogba, could also return for this game. While Solskjaer has claimed that Pogba could be “out for a little while”, this could merely be a tactical strategy to throw Guardiola off. While it’s unlikely that we see the Frenchmen in action this weekend, there’s the possibility of a much anticipated return. Martial is also likely to feature in this match after a couple of periods on the sidelines, and if he were to play, he would add to United’s threat on the counter-attack. Another thing to consider for both sides is the fact that they played midweek Premier League fixtures for the first time this season, and the managers might consider an element of squad rotation.

Summary & Prediction

At the moment, Manchester is neither red nor blue, as both sides have experienced rough starts to the campaign; however, if either team were to win here, a positive feeling would be restored to one of these clubs. In this historic derby, so much is at stake, as these teams are not only fighting for their position in the league table, but also for pride over their bitter rivals. In this match, Manchester United will have to travel just over 7 kilometers to face their cross-city opponents, but this could have a big impact on the game considering their poor away record. While Manchester City have not been invincible when playing at the Etihad, having gained 16 points from a possible 21, United have been far from convincing on their travels. 

This season, United have gained just 6 points from their 7 games away from home, a dismal record for a side of their stature. They have won just 1 of their away games this season, while they have lost to Bournemouth, Newcastle and West Ham, three teams in the bottom half of the table. This doesn’t bode well for the Red Devils’ chances in the match; however, with their recent win over a strong side, as well as their all round strong form against the elite clubs, it’s possible that they cause an upset. Their frontline has been firing recently, having scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 4 Premier League matches, and I believe that they’ll be able to create high quality chances on the break in this game. My final prediction is 2-2, a Manchester Derby classic that could see City drop out of the title race for good.