GW 14: Chelsea vs. West Ham

Chelsea vs. West Ham

With more than a third of the Premier League season played out already, the competition is starting to open up as we look forwards to the busy Christmas period. At this stage, there is no longer room for error, and with this in consideration, Chelsea vs. West Ham becomes a crucial fixture. This London derby features to teams at opposite ends of the table, and in opposite situations regarding form. While Chelsea have stepped up massively in this current campaign, proving themselves as one of the top teams in the division, West Ham’s poor start has left their fans wondering why they made such big investments in the summer. At this stage, Chelsea have already obtained double the points as their upcoming opponents, as they sit in 4th, while the Hammers are in 17th, just 3 points off the relegation zone. This, however, would be the perfect match for West Ham to regain their form in, against their city rivals. West Ham have often caused problems for Chelsea in the past, with the Blues having won just 2 of their last 5 matches in this fixture. With West Ham on the ropes, and with Pellegrini undoubtedly worried for his job, West Ham need to provide an upset in this game in order to get back on track.

Chelsea

Chelsea have started this season wonderfully, which can not only be seen in their results but also in the promising football that they are currently playing. Frank Lampard’s men have far exceeded all expectations placed on them as a team at the start of the season, with many anticipating a poor campaign for the Blues due to the transfer ban placed on them. Like mentioned earlier, they have found themselves in 4th, which is already admirable, and their underlying numbers show that this could be even better. While they lost to Manchester City in their last match, they put on an impressive display, largely limiting the current Premier League champions. Expected goals had this game at 1.24 to 0.82 in Manchester City’s favour, but there were definitely some promising signs for the Blues. Chelsea actually managed to keep 53% possession, making them the first team to keep more of the ball than City in a Premier League match this season.

This has clearly been a trait of Chelsea’s this season, as under Lampard they tend to play with confidence and aggression, no matter the opponent. This attacking nature of the side has warranted great results, and they are currently the 2nd best attacking side in the league by expected goals. They also rank 2nd in the division for possession statistics. However, they are slightly weaker defensively, and they tend to get caught out against the elite clubs. When playing against the lesser sides though, they have experienced great success, as they are able to smother sides with their possession. Against West Ham, this should be useful, but they do have to be wary of the attacking talent at the Hammers’ disposal. With players such as Haller and Anderson in the West Ham squad, Chelsea’s defensive stability will be tested to the maximum.

This leaves a crucial role for Jorginho, who has been surprisingly rejuvenated by Frank Lampard. The Italian has cemented his place as the defensive midfielder in this side, and has been a standout performer for the Blues this season. The main reason for his sudden upturn in form has been his newfound defensive abilities, which have allowed him to become less of a defensive liability when played in a deep role. He is currently making a superb 4.6 tackles and interceptions per 90, which is great considering the amount of possession Chelsea tend to have. Also, with a more press resistant midfield surrounding him, he now has more space to dictate play from the base of midfield, which has always been his specialty. He is averaging an incredible 78 passes per match in the Premier League, with an 88% pass accuracy. These defensive and offensive abilities will be crucial to Chelsea’s defensive performance in this game, as Jorginho will be able to stop attacks through his defensive actions, but also help his side control the game through possession.

One of the main reasons for Jorginho’s upturn in form in this system, is the midfield support that he has around him. Another player in this Chelsea midfield who has taken a massive step up is Mateo Kovacic. Kovacic has become almost a necessity in this Chelsea side, as he provides a crucial source of progression while he helps his side keep hold of the ball. Kovacic is the perfect example of a press resistant midfielder, as his dribbling and passing abilities have allowed Chelsea to dominate difficult games this season. Kovacic is averaging an immense 3.5 dribbles per 90 from the heart of midfield, in addition to 1 key pass. This highlights his progressive role within this Chelsea side. Surprisingly, Kovacic is actually averaging more passes per 90 than Jorginho in the Premier League this season, and his increasingly important role in the center of the park has led to further success for Chelsea.

West Ham

Like mentioned earlier, West Ham have endured a season of discontent up to this point. While they started off positively, having gained 11 points from their first 6 matches, things have steadily gone downhill from there. They are now in terrible form, without a win in their last 7 Premier League games, having gained just 2 points since their last win. Sadly for them, it’s not like they’ve been getting unlucky either. In attack, they haven’t been terrible, and they have the 14th best offensive record according to expected goals. Defensively, however, they have been atrocious, conceding 23 when expected goals predicts that this should be closer to 26. This makes them the 2nd worst defensive side according to expected goals against, only better than Norwich, and this will obviously be a massive concern for Manuel Pellegrini.

Given this poor defensive record, you would expect the Hammers to struggle against Chelsea. This defensive weakness was clear in West Ham’s last match against Spurs, a much weaker attacking side. What was worrying in particular, was the lack of cover in the defensive midfield area, as players like Son and Alli were able to continuously drift behind the midfield line unmarked. This lead to West Ham giving up 3 goals, in an all round poor defensive display. With this extended run of disappointing defensive performances, you feel that now may be the time for Pellegrini to switch tactics. He needs to add more cover to the midfield, so that Declan Rice can drop deeper in order to shield the backline more effectively. While both Fornals or Lanzini could drop back to create a 4-3-3, perhaps even Felipe Anderson could be considered for this role given his strong defensive output.

Anderson has started the season decently, but hasn’t exactly been the star player that his side need him to be. While he usually plays on the left side of midfield, he hasn’t been overly efficient, and you feel that his talents could be better used in more of a defensive role. He is actually averaging a very impressive 4.3 tackles and interceptions per 90. This shows that playing him in midfield could actually be to the defensive benefit of this West Ham side, as he won’t act as a defensive liability in the center of the park. From this role, or any role really, Felipe Anderson will also always provide a creative threat. This season he is averaging 1.6 key passes per 90, along with 2.9 dribbles. He is also averaging 0.21 expected assists per 90, which is actually a slight improvement on his 0.20 from the previous campaign. Although his creative output might drop if moved into a deeper role, you would still expect him to be heavily involved in West Ham’s attacking play, no matter what position he takes up.

If a shift to a 4-3-3 is made, or even if they stick with a 4-2-3-1, Declan Rice will be crucial as always at the base of midfield. Despite West Ham’s early defensive frailties, Rice has started the season competently yet again, but he lacks sufficient cover around him. You feel that a switch to a 4-3-3 would definitely help his cause, as it would allow him to sit deeper than usual, with more progression based players around him. Also, this could benefit the whole of the West Ham side, as Rice would be in a better position to nullify the central players that Chelsea have at their disposal. One thing to notice when looking at this Chelsea side is the role of their left-winger. This is because they often employ quite a central presence on the left side of attack, whether it be Pulisic or Mount, and both of these players tend to drop into deeper, more central areas to pick the ball up. If Rice is used as a sole defensive midfielder, he could look to counter this threat from the left wing, and help to stop one of Chelsea’s main forms of progression and creativity.

Injuries

Despite their strong start, Chelsea have actually struggled with injuries this season, but Lampard has proven his tactical versatility in order to get them out of some difficult situations. While they are still experiencing a number of injury issues, things seem to be getting slightly better for the Blues. The big problem for them at the moment is the absence of Antonio Rudiger. This has been an ongoing issue since the beginning of the campaign, as Rudiger has clocked up just 45 Premier League minutes due to two separate injuries. Like mentioned earlier, Chelsea have been relatively weak at the back this campaign, and it’s fair to say that Rudiger’s absence has been a big contributing factor to this. Further up the field, Barkley and Loftus-Cheek will be continuing their long term absences, while Hudson-Odoi has recently picked up a hamstring injury that caused him to miss Chelsea’s last match.

West Ham have also been going through a rough period in terms of injuries, with a number of key players expected to miss out on this game. While West Ham are not struggling with a large quantity of injury problems, the players that will be unavailable are crucial to the starting 11. Lanzini has just recently picked up a shoulder injury with his return date unknown, which will limit West Ham’s creative prowess. More worryingly though, are the absences at the back. Centre-back Issa Diop is set to miss this game through a yellow card suspension, while goalkeeper Fabianski is yet to return from his hip injury that could keep him out until January. It’s Fabianski’s injury that has had, and will have, the biggest effect on this West Ham squad. With Fabianski in goal for the first 7 matches of the season, West Ham kept 3 clean sheets, but they haven’t managed to keep a single clean sheet since then. Second-string goalkeeper Roberto has been a massive liability between the goalposts for the Hammers, and has been largely responsible for their awful defensive form of late.

Summary

Both of these sides have been far better in attack than in defence this season, meaning this fixture is well set up to be an entertaining London derby. One team, however, have employed their gameplan far better than the other, which can not only be seen in the league table but also when viewing the individual performances of the respective clubs. With Chelsea’s recent league form, they are the obvious favorites in this match, and they will be further aided by the fact that they are at home. Chelsea have, however, actually been better when away from home this season. They have picked up 11 points at home compared to 15 points when away, and although they have played a game more on the road, they still have a slightly better points per game ratio when travelling. Saying this, Chelsea’s recent home form has picked up quite a bit, as they have won each of their last 3 home matches. West Ham are without a win in any of their last 4 away matches, so you feel that playing at home will give Chelsea some sort of advantage. In general, Chelsea look miles ahead of this West Ham side at the moment, and although surprises are often sprung upon us in football, it’s hard to look past the Blues. West Ham have conceded 3 or more goals in each of their last 3 Premier League games, and you would expect Chelsea’s superb attacking unit to have a field day. Because of this, I’m predicting a 2-0 Chelsea win, as the recent form of these sides points very clearly towards a Chelsea victory.