GW 13: Sheffield United vs. Manchester United

Sheffield United vs. Manchester United

With another international break come and gone, we can yet again look forwards to a captivating weekend of Premier League fixtures. One of the main attractions of gameweek 13 for any neutral, will undoubtedly be Sheffield United vs. Manchester United. Although this would have been considered a relatively dull affair at the beginning of the season, the quality that Sheffield United have shown has meant that they can now be competitive with teams of Manchester United’s quality. At the moment, Sheffield United actually sit ahead of Manchester United in the league table. Coming into this game, Sheffield have a 1 point lead over their upcoming opponents, while they also find themselves in 5th, compared to Manchester United who are in 7th. This is all down to Sheffield United boss Chris Wilder, who has proven himself as one of the most tactically intelligent managers in the Premier League this season. Given that Sheffield United were just recently promoted, this is an entirely different experience for them and they have only ever played 2 Premier League games against Manchester United in their history. These both ended in losses back in the 2006/07 season, but with their superb form of late, they actually come into this match as slight favorites.

Sheffield United

This has been a fantasy season for the Blades so far, as they have somehow managed to find themselves in a European spot, 12 games in. Chris Wilder has worked wonders with this team, bringing them from League 1 in the 2015/16 season to now, where they are one of the most difficult teams to beat in the top flight of English football. While they aren’t always exciting, they are incredibly organized defensively, and they tend to generate high-quality chances when going forwards. Wilder employs a strict 5-3-2 formation, that seems to cover all the space both offensively and defensively. This has meant that they have conceded just 9 goals this season, the 2nd best defensive record in the division.

This Sheffield side are experts at limiting their opponents attacking space, and when coming up against a team like Manchester United, this should come in handy. Manchester United have struggled offensively this season but their underlying numbers indicate that they are dangerous attacking unit. They do, however, gain most of their opportunities from strong counter-attacking play. This should fall into the hands Sheffield United, as their sturdy formation and tactics rarely allow for them to be punished on the break. Although their wing-backs and even centre-backs often stride forwards, Sheffield tend to have a minimum of four players back at all times. This is due to a strict positional system that allows for an adequate amount of cover in seemingly whatever situation. When watching this Sheffield side, it’s clear to see how well-drilled they are, as each and everyone of the players knows the system and their role within this Chris Wilder machine.

A player who is crucial to Sheffield’s defensive organization is Oliver Norwood. Having been with Sheffield United last season, he is now the captain of their current side, playing as the most defensive midfielder in a three. At the base of midfield, Norwood is an incredibly reliable player. His well-rounded abilities allow him to contribute on both the offensive and defensive ends, playing at the heart of his side. He is making a solid 4.3 tackles and interceptions per match proving his defensive prowess, but what’s more impressive is his superb ability on the ball. He dictates the play for the Blades, averaging 53 passes per match, while he is a creative force, making 1.6 key passes per game. This is incredible considering his deep-lying position, and it shows the attacking influence that he has from midfield.

Another midfield player who has been brilliant on the attacking end is John  Lundstram. While it seems as though he was brought in to provide more defensive cover when making the transition from the Championship to the Premier League, he has cemented his place as an energetic, box-to-box midfield player. He has scored 3 goals this season, the joint most at the club, while all of his attacking stats are positive. As well as taking 1.5 shots per game from midfield, he is also making a key pass per match while he is averaging 0.43 expected goals and assists per 90. Like Norwood though, he is a very well-rounded midfielder. Along with these impressive attacking stats, he is making a solid 3.3 tackles and interceptions per match, and like every Sheffield player, he is required to chip in defensively. However, perhaps Lundstram’s best ability is his extreme work-ethic, and against a relatively passive Manchester United midfield, he should be able to thrive both as a progressive force on the counter, as well as a solid defensive unit.

Manchester United

By contrast to Sheffield United, Manchester United have had an incredibly disappointing campaign so far. While they have actually looked like one of the most solid teams in the league from many standpoints, their performances have not warranted the results that they would have been hoping for. While Sheffield United have shown a defined style of play, it’s been the opposite for Manchester United as they seem to have a lack of identity and gamplan at the moment. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is yet to establish a dominant team in the Premier League as United currently sit in 7th, 9 points adrift of the top 4. This mediocrity is, however, not reflected in their underlying statistics. Expected goals actually show United’s season in a very different manner. By this metric, United are the 4th best attacking side in the league, proving that they do have a relatively strong creative frontline. What’s even more impressive though, is their incredible defensive record. According to expected goals, they are the best defensive side in the division, an incredible upturn from previous seasons, in which they were often characterized by their leaky backline. 

Despite these drastic improvements, they are still a long way away from where they want to be regarding the table, while they have also struggled against teams who allow them to keep hold of the ball. This shows that they have problems with breaking down deep lying defensive units, and especially teams with organized defensive systems. This, obviously, will play into the hands of Sheffield United. Without a deep-lying playmaker in the Manchester United squad, you feel it will be difficult for them to find a breakthrough unless a change in system is made. Although Sheffield’s formation tends to cover most of the attacking space on the field, Manchester United can look to create two on one situations in the wide areas against Sheffield’s wing-backs, or try to exploit the space just in front of their back three. 

A player who could be crucial for United in this match is Anthony Martial, as he could look to open up space with his movement. Having been previously employed as a winger, his new role as a mobile striker has allowed him to thrive with more freedom. Although injuries have hampered his season so far, he has still managed to rack up 3 goals and 3 assists in just 531 Premier League minutes. This equates to a direct goal contribution ever 88.5 minutes in league play, proving his effectiveness as the lone striker in this system. One advantage of having Martial at striker in this game, is his intelligence off the ball. He is adept at playing in multiple attacking roles, and in this match, he will need to act as more of a false nine, making runs back towards his own midfield. This way he can lose his marker, and potentially cause confusion amongst the Sheffield midfield and backline. One of the rare areas of space in this Sheffield system, is on either side of defensive midfielder Oliver Norwood, and if Martial pick the ball up in these positions, he could be an attacking threat.

Another dangerous attacking player in this United squad is Daniel James. To start the season, James was considered to be merely a rotation player, but he has developed into a crucial first team starter. While this is perhaps more indicative of United’s lack of attacking talent, the potential and energy is there to be seen in regards to James’ performances. Although James can be a wasteful attacking player, it’s his individual abilities that could make him a danger to this Sheffield backline. With 1.1 dribbles and 1 key pass per 90, you can see that he is putting up acceptable numbers in the league. However, it’s his pace and acceleration that will be useful in this match. While system can often account for dribbling ability and attacking quality on the ball, raw attributes such as pace and strength can be harmful to any backline or structure. You wouldn’t expect United to create much in this game through their passing play, but perhaps James could provide a spark through a more direct route.

Injuries

Coming off of the international break, Sheffield United are looking far stronger than Manchester United in regards to squad fitness. The Blades have managed to stay fit throughout the majority of this current Premier League campaign, and with only one minor injury on their books at the moment, they look set to continue with their strong injury record. The player who could potentially miss out is John Egan. However, while he has picked up a calf problem, this is no more than a minor concern, and there is a large possibility that he returns for this match. Perhaps even more worryingly though, is the absence of Dean Henderson for this game. While he is not injured, Sheffield’s primary goalkeeper is set to miss this match against his parent club. Given Henderson’s loan status from Manchester United, he is ineligible to play in this match. This will be a massive blow to Sheffield, as Henderson has been brilliant this season, and has been one of the main reasons for their defensive overperformance on expected goals.

This, however, pales in comparison to Manchester United’s injury woes. Defensively, United have a number of problems with Bailly, Dalot and Rojo all unavailable for this game, while both Tuanzebe and Shaw could miss out as well. The big problems though, come from midfield. Pogba, of course, is still out with a long term ankle injury that has seen him miss 5 Premier League games already. More recently though, is the news of Scott McTominay’s ankle problem which means he will miss this game as well. With Matic also a doubt, this leaves Solskjaer with very few midfield options, and definitely not his first choice lineup. Fred is now the only defensive midfield player available for this match, meaning someone like Pereira or Lingard will need to be dropped into a deeper position. This does not bode well for United’s success in this match, and you feel that Sheffield’s hard-working midfield trio will be able to dominate proceedings in the center of the park.

Summary

While Manchester United have shown elite underlying numbers, their squad, and manager, don’t feel elite at the moment. Although they are clearly better than this Sheffield United side, Sheffield come into this match almost expecting a win. This is, for a large part, down to their solid home record. While all three of their losses this season have actually come at home, two of these games have been against Leicester and Liverpool, while they came close in both of these matches. More recently, they have begun to excel at Bramall Lane, having won in each of their last two home games against Arsenal and Burnley. They have also only conceded 4 home goals this season, and each of their home wins have come with a clean sheet. All of this will sit very poorly with Manchester United, who are one of the worst away sides in the division. Manchester United have picked up just 5 points on their travels this season, with their only away win coming against bottom place Norwich. However, you would expect United to improve this over the course of the season and potentially even in this match. While Sheffield United are a solid home side who have been great to watch this season, they are far overperforming on their underlying numbers which is bound to catch up with them. For Manchester United, the opposite has occurred, and you would expect an upturn in form for them shortly. Because of this, although recent results may suggest otherwise, I’m not going to predict a Sheffield United win. My final prediction is a 1-1 draw, based on the recent underlying performances of the respective teams.