GW 3: Wolves vs. Burnley

The final game of matchweek three in the 2019/20 Premier League season is between Wolves and Burnley and this tie is set to be very interesting, as it’s between two sides who are perceived as very difficult to play against. Neither team has had their ideal start to the new season; however, they have both seen decent results against tough opposition and they will be looking to progress further as the season goes on. These sides are definitely expected to be well clear of the relegation zone this campaign, and while Wolves will be pushing to get into the Europa League yet again, Burnley will probably be aiming for a mid-table finish, considering they ended up in 17th last year in what was quite a poor season. When these sides went head to head in 2018/19, they won one a piece, with each side coming out on top when at home. These fixtures included a 2-0 win to Burnley at Turf Moor, and a 1-0 win for Wolves when at Molineux, and although Wolves finished 8 places ahead of Burnley last season, this matchup was always tight. Wolves’ failure to beat the Claret’s on their most recent visit to Turf Moor could definitely be credited to Burnley’s resilient defensive structure which has seemingly become even stronger this year.

Last season, Wolves always seemed to perform better against the elite sides and in fact, they gained more points off the top six teams in the Premier League than the bottom six, and this year, they have started the campaign by playing two of the league's best and have looked confident in both games. They started their season with a match against Leicester which ended in a disappointing 0-0 draw after they had a goal disallowed by VAR. Their second game was played against a Manchester United side who had just beaten Chelsea 4-0 the previous week, and they managed a somewhat impressive 1-1 draw. In both games they were dominated in terms of possession, which is expected at this stage given Wolves’s conservative strategy, but while they managed more expected goals than Leicester in their first match, they were beaten in this metric against United which is a minor concern. This game will be much different for them though and they’ll have to adjust their gameplan in order to deal with Burnley’s tactical and effective strategies. You feel that with three strong centre-backs they should be equipped to deal with the long balls that Burnley play from the back; however, where they need to improve is during the progression. To deal with this factor they could drop Ruben Neves into an even deeper position than he has been playing lately, while Moutinho could also come deep to collect the ball and progress it with his superb passing and vision.

Moutinho could be the key for Wolves in this game if they want to unlock the Burnley defence and create chances for their strikers. Burnley tend to play a lot of long balls from their defenders up to their strikers, and this can often take their midfield out of the equation. This means that the midfielders tend to stay relatively deep in order to cover for the wingers who burst forward to win the second ball. This is where Moutinho comes in handy, because if he drops slightly deeper than usual, and possibly more centrally as well, he should have a large amount of space in front of Burnley’s two central midfielders where he can then create from and look to play it up to Wolves’ attackers. Moutinho is definitely the man to play in this role as last season he was making 2.5 key passes per 90 with 0.8 of these coming from long distance which will most likely improve further if he was to play in this role. Ruben Neves will also be important at the base of midfield because he can do a similar job to Moutinho but with more defensive work and from a slightly deeper area. When Burnley play long balls forward, Neves should drop deep so that when the centre-backs win the ball, he can collect it in order to give Wolves the option to counter attack immediately. Neves, like Moutinho, is a high quality passer, and because of this, he has the option to play a long ball from deep once he gains possession of the ball. This is clearly a route that Wolves took very often last campaign with Neves completing 6.1 long balls per game, with nearly a 60% success rate which is quite high considering the distance of the passes he was completing. When Wolves manage to get into Burnley’s half and control the possession, Neves will also be important as he has the ability to control the game with calm passing or go for a more dangerous ball that could cut through a deep-lying defensive unit.

Burnley have started their campaign strongly, with a 3-0 win against Southampton on the opening weekend before they unfortunately lost 2-1 to Arsenal in what was a decent showing from them. When they played Arsenal they actually won on expected goals with a 1.39 to 1.16 scoreline suggesting that a draw would have been a fair result given the chances created. This is very impressive for Burnley as it shows that Sean Dyche is successfully bringing attacking force into a lineup that has always been solid at the back. They also managed more shots than the Gunners with 18 compared to their opponent’s 15 and now that they seemingly have an established front line, their attacking play has been much more effective. You feel that Sean Dyche is fairly set in his ways on the type of football that he wants to play and the strategy that he employs, but one thing that he’ll definitely want to do in this particular game, is keep his wingers high, and maybe slightly more central than they have been in previous games. This will allow the wingers to get in behind Wolves’ wing-backs when Burnley push forward and create controversy among the Wolves backline. The wing-backs will have to decide whether to drop deeper to cover the wingers in which case Wolves will lose the strong attacking output that they provide, or they will stay in their usual positions, further up the field which will allow the Burnley wingers to put a lot of pressure on the centre-backs and potentially create a 4 on 3 or 4 on 4 situation in their favour. It could also force Dendoncker into a deeper position as he might have to add supplement to the Wolves midfield, and this will again take some of the sting out of Wolves’ counter attacks.

On the left side of midfield, Dwight McNeil could play a vital role for Burnley in this match as he has been their main source of creativity and energy when his side are in advanced areas. One thing to notice when looking at Burnley’s past couple of games, is the fact that McNeil has typically played closer to the strikers than Gudmundsson on the right hand side, and this should be perfect for the way that Burnley want to play, as it will force Wolves into indecision while McNeil can also search for the second ball, off the two strikers. Last season McNeil was making a solid 1.7 dribbles per 90 in the Premier League which has risen to an extremely impressive 3.1 in the early parts of this season, and his progression down the left wing often leads to dangerous chances within the penalty area. If McNeil can successfully get in behind the Wolves right wing-back, he should be the main threat for Burnley and he could help his side make the most of their long ball scenarios. A player who will most likely be playing these long balls out from the back is Ben Mee, who has always been consistent at the back for Sean Dyche’s men, and looks set for another successful season at the heart of defence. Last year, Mee was completing 4.7 long balls per game in the Premier League which was more than any other outfield player in the Burnley squad, proving that he was often tasked with launching the balls into the strikers to start attacks. He was also very involved defensively with 2.7 tackles and interceptions per match as well as 1.3 blocks which was very important to the defensive style that Dyche employed. In this upcoming game, he is matched up against two high quality strikers, and the experience that he brings to this Burnley side will be vital to their gameplan.

At the moment, Wolves aren’t suffering from any injuries to members of their first team; however, they played a Europa League qualification match on Thursday which could affect their squad’s fitness. Wolves have barely had any breaks over the last few weeks due to the grueling qualification campaign that the Europa League demands, and in their last game, against a solid Torino side, they were forced to use quite a few of their regular starters. While they did manage to rest a number of key players, stars such as Jimenez, Jota, Moutinho, Dendoncker, Boly and Coady all started and this could have an impact on the squad that Nuno Espirito Santo chooses for the match on Sunday. Burnley are also relatively free of injuries; however, Brady, Defour and Drinkwater could all miss the game due to various reasons. Brady is currently suffering from a rib injury while Defour has a calf problem and they are both expected to be out for a few weeks at least. Drinkwater, on the other hand, could miss due to his lack of match fitness and his relatively recent arrival at Burnley. He is yet to feature, as a starter or on the bench for Sean Dyche’s squad, and although he should be able to return to action soon, it might be a few weeks before we see him play a competitive match in a Burnley shirt.

If Wolves are going to keep their unbeaten run going in this match they’ll have to change a lot in terms of their system to counteract Burnley’s style of play while they can’t afford to take their upcoming opponents lightly. Saying this, they are the home side, and you would expect them to have an advantage because of this, as they seem to perform much stronger when in front of their own crowd. This game will likely be decided by how well Wolves’ centre backs can deal with the intelligent long balls that Burnley play, and perhaps even more importantly, how they progress the ball from deep positions so that they can slice through Burnley’s disciplined backline. Both sides are often noted as being very defensive and cautious in their approach to a game, and it will be interesting to see if either team changes this in order to be the more dominant side but perhaps lose some of their favoured tactics in the process. If one side were to do this you’d expect it to be Wolves, as they always seem quite confident when in possession, and although this could harm them in certain areas, they should still be able to win all three points. I predict a 2-1 Wolves victory and although Burnley will be dangerous, I feel that they will just miss out yet again.