GW 34: Manchester United vs. West Ham

The Premier League is back with us again this weekend and one of the stand out games that we have in store for us is Manchester United against West Ham. Although these teams are quite distant in the table, with United in 6th and West Ham in 11th with a total of 19 points between the two sides West Ham still have a tremendous amount of individual talent in their squad and are definitely capable of causing an upset in this match. They’ve managed some good results against United in the past as well, winning 1 and drawing 2 of the last 6 between them and although this isn’t a brilliant record it shows that the match does not have a forgone conclusion and that the Hammers can compete against the bigger sides. The last match between the sides was actually the one West Ham win which came back in September as United weren’t at the top of their game, losing 3-1. In this match. In this match, United were firmly dominated in the middle of the park only managing 51% possession and although this is slightly more than West Ham managed they weren’t creating chances when they had the ball, while West Ham were more productive, with 7 more deep passes than United. West Ham also came out on top according to expected goals, although narrowly, with a predicted scoreline of 1.30 to 0.87 in the Hammers’ favour.

United have improved massively from this point though and although they are still in 6th place at the moment they are only 3 points off Tottenham in 3rd and as the race for Champions League football intensifies, it’s difficult to predict whether or not United will reach Europe’s elite competition come the end of the season. At one point not that long ago, United had climbed up to 4th place but a bit of a dip in recent weeks has seen them drop places again as they’ve lost 2 of their last 3 Premier League matches in what has been an overall disappointing period for the club. These two losses have been against difficult opposition though with the first coming a couple weeks ago against Arsenal while their last match was a 2-1 defeat to Wolves. Against Wolves, there were arguments to be made that United were in fact the better side as they managed 51% of the possession while also taking 18 shots to Wolves’ 9 and managing 4 on target to Wolves’ meager 2. Saying this, in a way United played straight into Wolves’ hands by playing high up the field as this allowed Wolves to break while they were able to rely on their consistent clinical ability. United will be facing a similar challenge in their next match and although the Hammers are not as adept at sitting in or at counter-attacking, United will definitely have to change their game plan in order to improve their results. In the last match they played with a five at the back which didn’t allow them the domination that they would have wished for and in their upcoming match you would expect them to switch back to a four at the back while also bulking up their attack slightly in order to keep the pressure on.

United might look to go with either a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 in this match and in both of these formations Anthony Martial could prove to be crucial coming off the left hand side. As they struggled to find attacking routes in their last match Martial will likely be brought back into the side despite the midweek Champions League fixture, and his pace and ability to drive should prove to be important as he can capitalize on West Ham’s lack of width. Although he will always naturally come more centrally due to the fact that he is right-footed, he will have the opportunity to drag the full-backs into wide positions before exploiting the newly created space while he could also look to be more of a creative threat, helping his side in the build up play instead of going for goal himself. Paul Pogba will also be crucial in this match as he can help his side to keep possession while also providing a threat from deeper when he bursts forwards. West Ham do have quite a strong midfield and United will probably try to look for wide options throughout the match but if they do have to go through the middle Paul Pogba has the creative power to break through the line and he could cause the defence some problems. He has been making 1.6 key passes and 1.7 dribbles per match this season and under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer he’s been even more progressive while playing in a much more advanced role, showing that he does have the ability to be United’s key creative threat.

West Ham have had a season with many ups and downs and although they’ve done decently to achieve their position in the league table, they will have been disappointed that they couldn’t reach loftier heights by this stage. Currently sitting in 11th, they are 5 points off 7th place Leicester who are currently labeled as “the best of the rest” and while they would have wanted to finish inside the top 10 it is still very plausible at this stage given the small gaps between teams in the middle of the table. Their form in recent weeks has been average at best with 3 wins and 3 losses from their last 6 and with none of these wins coming in consecutive games it is clear that their consistency needs to improve. Although consistency is very important against the smaller sides it is not as necessary when playing teams at the top of the table as they would need a top performance anyways in order to beat one of these clubs. However, they did lose against a big side last time out as they suffered a 2-0 defeat at the hands of a slightly rejuvenated Chelsea side. In all honesty they did thoroughly deserve to lose this match as they only managed 9 shots to Chelsea’s 16 with 2 of their’s coming on target compared to 7 from Chelsea and along with this, expected goals had the match at 2.15 to 0.48 as West Ham failed to create a sufficient amount of chances. Considering they struggled for creativity, they could look to revert back to a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1 in their upcoming fixture in order to bulk up the midfield, playing more players behind the main attacker.

Felipe Anderson has been one of the Hammers’ stand out players this season as would be expected, and he’ll need to step up his game for this one as he hasn't been performing at his top level recently. He has scored 8 and assisted 4 in the Premier League this season but this has massively decreased in his past few matches as he hasn’t scored in his last 13 Premier League matches while he’s also only managed 1 assist in his last 7. This is definitely one of the main reasons that West Ham’s form has decreased lately as Felipe Anderson is the main source of creativity for them and in such a big game it’s the perfect time for him to regain his form. If he is to be rejuvenated, Marko Arnautovic will also have to get back into form as the Austrian has struggled since returning from injury. He hasn’t played very frequently in recent weeks but he still has an undoubted amount of quality and in these big games he is one of the few players in the West Ham squad who could turn the game on it’s head, as he did in the reverse fixture earlier in the season. He has averaged a direct goal contribution every 166 minutes this season which, although it isn’t superb, shows that he is still a force when going forwards and considering he has missed large patches in between, it has been hard for him to get his form together as he did last campaign. United’s defence has still been quite poor under Solskjaer and if Arnautovic does play in this match, his physical and creative presence could cause the backline some serious problems.

Manchester United come into this match with some massive injury problems that will definitely damage their chances in the match. Darmian, Valencia and Sanchez will all have to sit out for this match while Bailly and Herrera both have smaller problems that could force them to miss and both Young and Shaw are currently both enduring suspensions. This leaves United with very few options at the back while they are particularly weakened at full-back with Young, Shaw and Valencia missing, leaving them with only Diogo Dalot as a designated wide defender. This means that United could be forced into using a back three or they could potentially use one of their centre-backs in a full-back position and both of these options could leave them seriously exposed at the back. West Ham are also suffering from a number of issues, however, most of these are long term problems meaning they should be adept in dealing with these absences by now. Reid, Sanchez, Wilshere, Yarmolenko and Carroll have all been out injured for extended periods of time now and the main worry for them will be the potential absence of Samir Nasri. Although Nasri hasn’t been great since signing for the Hammers, he has a high creative potential and you feel he could be important in taking some of the burden off Felipe Anderson’s shoulders and if he were to miss it would limit West Ham’s attacking options as Nasri is quite a versatile player.

Neither team is in good form coming into this match and although a few weeks ago United would have been strong favourites to win, their chances seem to have thoroughly decreased after going through this poor spell of form. Along with this, they had a midweek Champions League fixture against Barcelona which will have taken it’s toll on the players and it might limit Ole Gunnar Solskjaer further in terms of team selection. As mentioned earlier, United are also facing a lot of injuries at the moment and with all of these factors going against them, it’s not unlikely that they could lose or draw in the match. This is also expected to be a high scoring fixture as 3 or more goals have come in 8 of United’s last 9 home matches while both sides have disappointing defensive records with United the 8th best defensive side while West Ham are 14th, showing that attack is the strength of both sides involved. Because United are at home in this match, where they’re unbeaten in their last 13 matches in the Premier League, I’m going to predict a narrow victory for them. 2-1.