GW 31: Bournemouth vs. Newcaslte

This weekend we see a significant drop in Premier League fixtures due to the FA cup matches that will also be played, meaning only 5 games are on show for us from the English top flight. On Saturday, Newcastle travel to the Vitality to play Bournemouth, and with the teams in completely different periods of form this could be interesting. With Bournemouth in 12th and Newcastle in 13th, only 3 points separate the sides as Newcastle’s recent rise has brought them within touching distance of the mid table sides. With this increased form from Newcastle while Bournemouth are slumping, we could see Newcastle come out on top, however, in recent seasons this has been a tight fixture and in the 5 times these sides have met in the Premier League each team has won 2 while 1 match came out as a draw. The earlier game this season between them ended in a 2-1 Newcastle win and at this time in the season, Bournemouth were at the peak of their powers so this was quite a surprising result, however, when you look at the underlying numbers you can see that Newcastle did deserve the win, with them managing more shots as they managed a combined xG value of 2.58 to Bournemouth’s 1.92, which highlights that they were slightly better. Bournemouth have been astonishingly better when at home though so we could see a twist to the tale this time round.

Bournemouth have had an overall inconsistent season, however, they will have been very happy with what they have achieved so far as they’ve managed to stay far away from the relegation zone in 12th. They started the season superbly but lately things have started going downhill as they’ve only won 1 of their last 6 games, with 4 losses in this period. Their last match was a sign that they might be recovering though as they thoroughly dominated against Huddersfield away from home in in order to obtain a comfortable 2-0 victory. They only took 8 shots in the match, which was the same as Huddersfield, but they had 3 more come on target as their shots came from much better areas which is shown by the xG predicted score of 2.16 to 0.34 in their favour. With Wilson returning for their last match they had their complete front 4 back together and with them all fit for this upcoming game as well you would expect Howe to use a similar system, most likely going with a 4-4-2 yet again. The best way to overload Newcastle’s 3-4-3 formation by using the players that they have available could be by putting pressure on the wide areas, requiring the two full backs to push forwards and provide width while Brooks and Fraser cut in to put an extra burden on the three central defenders. This would mean choosing two relatively defensive central midfield players so that they can sit deeper and prevent the counter attack.

Since Wilson has now returned he should yet again be a key player for his side and could prove to make the difference as he has so many times this campaign. In only 1822 minutes he has managed 11 goals and 7 assists, averaging a direct goal contribution roughly every 107 minutes and what’s even more impressive is that he is only slightly exceeding his expected goals value by 0.43, showing that he has been getting into very promising positions despite only taking 2.1 shots per match. If Bournemouth do go with a front 2 with him and King, he’ll be crucial in Bournemouth’s overall gameplan of overloading Newcastle's back 5 and his clinical ability has won countless matches for the Cherries. With the return of Wilson, the threat of Fraser is also exponentially raised as his superb creative ability often relies on Wilson getting into great areas in front of goal. Through the absence of Wilson, Fraser slumped massively as his last assist before their most recent game came in Wilson’s second to last game before injury. What shows this even more is that this last assist was actually to Wilson and after he obtained an injury Fraser went on a run of 8 games without an assist before providing for Wilson yet again last week. Newcastle right-back DeAndre Yedlin loves to push forwards so Fraser could have a lot of space to deal in down the left hand side, meaning his creative abilities have the potential to flourish in this fixture.

Newcastle have a big job coming up for them in this match but with their recent upturn in form you can see them making this a very close contest. Newcastle have won 3 of their last 4 which has seen them rise dramatically through the table as they’re now 6 points off the relegation zone and only 3 off of Bournemouth who are a place in front of them. Their last match was a superb comeback in which they managed to win 3-2 against Everton even after being 2-1 down with 80 minutes on the clock. They pushed on in order to score two goals in quick succession in the 81st and 84th minute to secure the victory and expected goals shows that they were deservant of the scoreline they achieved, with the metric predicting a 2.38 to 1.15 result in Newcastle's favour. They took 12 more shots in the match as well as 4 more on target as Everton actually didn't manage a shot after the 70th minute showing that they were clearly trying to pack it in which in retrospect looks like a poor choice. Although they’ll have to deal with a much different prospect in this match, Newcastle might still need the same skills of breaking down a deep block as Bournemouth often look to counter after allowing the opposition some periods in possession which is shown by the fact that Bournemouth average just 46.7% of the ball in the league. Also, with Ake at the back for Bournemouth who is a very strong header of the ball, Newcastle might not find as much success with balls from the wide areas as they usually do, and instead they might try to work through the center with Almiron and maybe another more attacking midfield player.

Almiron has thoroughly enjoyed his introduction to the Premier League and after just 359 minutes he has already been heavily involved in some of Newcastle’s goals despite not claiming a goal or assist as of yet. He is typically an attacking midfielder and although he has been played on the wing a couple times so far, you would expect him to move back centrally for this match due to the aforementioned problem of potentially limited crossing ability for his side. With his creative ability through the center, he can work to play through balls to the striker or strikers in front of him which was definitely one of his strengths when playing in the MLS and he might even drop a bit deeper when Newcastle are playing with a lot of the ball in order to act as a distributor. On the other end of the field, Jamaal Lascelles could be important at the center of the back 3, as we all know that Bournemouth are a strong offensive side. His defensive numbers aren’t superb with him only making 2.3 tackles and interceptions per match, however, his leadership abilities are crucial to the side and he is a very organized defender while he also has some pace which could be important when defending counter attacks. He will most likely be directly up against Wilson for the majority of the match and as mentioned earlier Wilson is a clinical finisher so Lascelles will need to make sure that he doesn't get any chances whatsoever.

In terms of injuries, neither team is looking particularly good and Bournemouth have a number of worrying problems which could hinder their performance. Steve Cook, Francis, Smith, Lewis Cook and Stanislas are all out injured and with none of them looking likely to return for this match Bournemouth will have some big gaps to fill, particularly in defence. With Both Steve Cook and Francis on this list of injuries, centre back will be an area that Bournemouth could struggle in and although they recently signed Chris Mepham and he’s played in a few games already, he hasn’t looked superb and with him being so new to the Premier League he might not be as trustworthy as some of their more experienced players who they’ll be missing. Newcastle also have a few troublesome injuries with Clark and Longstaff being the most noteworthy while Schar is out suspended and Lascelles could possibly miss, however, this would be unlikely as it looks like he will return before game time. Schar in Longstaff were playing really well before their absences though and both of them provide strong defensive presences while they’ve also chipped in with a few goals meaning they’ll be greatly missed in this match.

Bournemouth come in with the slight advantage in terms of league positioning while Newcastle come in with the greater form and with both of these teams having roughly equal seasons up to this point either team seems to have an equal chance of winning this one. One thing that needs to be accounted for though is that this is being played at the Vitality, where Bournemouth have earned an astonishing 13 more points than when they’ve been away and when you combine this with Newcastle's poor away form, having failed to win in each of their last 6 you can see why Bournemouth might be considered favourites. This also looks like it could be a relatively high scoring match as both teams have been known for their strong attacks during certain points in the season while Bournemouth have actually conceded 54 goals which is 4 worst in the league, only ahead of Burnley, Cardiff and Fulham which is not a list of teams you really want to be associated with. Due to the number of factors coming into this game, I’m predicting a high scoring draw. 2-2.