GW 25: Leicester vs. Chelsea

Leicester vs. Chelsea

After a week and a half long break from league football for most Premier League clubs, action from England’s top flight is set to resume this weekend. And as for most gameweeks, there are a number of tantalizing fixtures. Manchester United will face Wolves on Saturday, while Spurs play Manchester City a day later, however; the biggest attraction will likely be the match between Leicester and Chelsea. With both of these teams vigorously involved in the race for Champions League football, this game will not only have an affect on the respective sides but the clubs around them as well. Despite poor form, both of these sides remain in the top four for now. Leicester currently sit in 3rd, with 48 points, while Chelsea are in 4th, 8 points behind their upcoming opponents. In this match, Chelsea will have the chance to limit this gap to 5, but will be more focused on pulling away from the chasing pack. Manchester United, Tottenham and Wolves are all on 34 points at the moment, just 6 points off of the elusive Champions League spots.

Leicester

When looking at the league table, it’s quite incredible to see what Leicester have achieved. Despite not being a great deal better than many of the traditional “top 6”, Leicester have established a 14 point gap between themselves and 5th place. Although they’ve been in decline lately, this should be enough to see out a Champions League finish. Recent games, however, have been testing for Brendan Rodgers’ men. They’ve now lost 4 of their last 7 Premier League matches despite having lost just 2 games prior to this run. The most concerning of these defeats will be the losses to Burnley and Southampton which have come over the last three gameweeks. While Leicester might not be expected to beat the Liverpools and the Manchester Citys of the Premier League, they need to stay consistent against the smaller clubs. In the first half of the season, they won every one of their games against teams outside of the top ten. 

This dropoff, though, was incredibly predictable in truth. While Leicester started the season magnificently, finding themselves in 2nd for a long stretch of time, it was clear that they were overperforming. Expected goals illustrates this perfectly. While Leicester have the 3rd best goal tally in the Premier League, expected goals estimates that they should be 5th in this regard. And by this metric, Leicester have exceeded their expected goals by 12; quite comfortably the most in the division. With this in mind, it makes sense that Leicester have struggled recently. It could also point to failure in this upcoming match. According to expected goals, Chelsea are better than Leicester both offensively and defensively. Despite Leicester’s position in the table, Chelsea have built a more sustainable side under Lampard that creates chances more consistently. Leicester though, have a strong defensive base, and if they look to hit Chelsea on the counter, they could find a way through.

Much of Leicester’s success this season has come from the overperformance of Jamie Vardy. Although he’s past his peak, the Englishman is having quite possibly his greatest ever season. While his numbers have cooled down recently, he remains the league’s top scorer on 17 goals. After going off injured midway through his last match against West Ham, reports are that he’ll be able to feature here. This will obviously be a massive boost to the Foxes’ chances. In a match in which Leicester wouldn’t be expected to create many chances, Vardy’s clinical ability will be crucial. Only Manchester City concede less shots in the league than Chelsea, who rarely allow their opponents through on goal. This season, Vardy is averaging just 2.4 shots per match in the Premier League, but his goal tally proves that he can thrive off a limited amount of chances. 

While Vardy’s been the key to Leicester’s attacking overperformance, Ndidi has been behind Leicester’s solid defensive displays. Despite the praise that players like Maddison and Vardy have been given over the course of the campaign, Ndidi is clearly the linchpin in this side. From the base of midfield, he is averaging 7.1 tackles and interceptions per 90 this season, having really established himself as one of the standout defensive midfielders in Europe. And in the Premier League, no one betters these defensive numbers. A notable sign of his impact has emerged over the last few weeks. Ndidi missed Leicester’s games against both Southampton and Burnley due to injury; two games that his side went on to lose. Leicester have only conceded 2 or more goals on 5 occasions in the league this year, and two of these came during Ndidi’s short absence from the squad. Without his massive defensive output in the team, the midfield becomes unbalanced with players like Tielemans and Maddison unable to take on his defensive duties. 

Chelsea

In many ways, Chelsea have had a season similar to Leicester’s. They have massively exceeded their expectations this year, after facing a difficult summer. However, unlike Leicester they have been underperforming relative to their performances this season. Like mentioned earlier, they sit behind Leicester, but this is quite undeserved. By expected goals, Chelsea rank as the 2nd best attacking side in the league, and the 4th best defensive outfit. Despite the numerous flaws that this young Chelsea side have shown recently, they are clearly the 3rd best team in England by some way. They rank 2nd for both shots and shots conceded per match, and are actually quite unlucky to sit in 4th at the moment. After a brilliant start to the season, they’ve begun to fall off slightly. They have only won 3 of their last 9 Premier League games, losing to Everton, Bournemouth, Southampton and Newcastle in the process. They are also without a win in each of their last two, and will be particularly disappointed about their draw with ten men Arsenal last gameweek. 

The positive for Lampard though, is that his side’s underlying numbers remain strong. Despite drawing 2-2 with Arsenal, they were incredibly dominant in the match. They took 19 shots while Arsenal managed just 2, both of which the Gunners managed to score. Expected goals had this particular game at 3.27 to 0.57 in Chelsea’s favour, as the Blues failed to capitalize on a number of good chances. While the media made much of the “spirit” that Arteta’s Arsenal showed in the match, it was clear that Chelsea were the dominant side against their city rivals. This has been a trend this season, with Chelsea consistently dropping points despite dominating games. In 4 of the 8 games that they’ve lost this year, expected goals has had them down as the better side. Much of this comes down to the youthful nature of the squad. While Abraham has exceeded his expected goals this year, many of the players around him have underperformed. Mount, Pulisic, Batshuayi and Barkley are just some of the many who have underperformed on their expected tally.

And with Abraham’s output decreasing, Chelsea have found themselves in a difficult situation. His 13 goals is only bettered by five players in the league, however; in his last 9 appearances he’s only scored twice. Interestingly, this hasn’t merely been a case of poor finishing. Over this run of 9 games, his expected goals per 90 have dropped from 0.69 to 0.51. While 0.69 expected goals per 90 is elite at this level, 0.51 is far more standard. By comparison, Mohamed Salah is averaging 0.66 per 90 at Liverpool. Abraham’s shot numbers have also experienced a worrying drop. In the same 9 game spell, Abraham’s shots have fallen from 3.63 per match to 3.04. This, however, potentially indicates a greater creative problem within the Chelsea squad. Although Abraham can obviously be blamed for his movement, much of his decline has come from the predictability of Chelsea’s attacking gameplan. At this point in the season, other sides have become aware of Chelsea’s possession-based system, and have become more conservative when going up against the Blues. 

However, Lampard may just have found his creative spark, in the form of Callum Hudson-Odoi. The young winger has now started in each of Chelsea’s last three games, having previously managed just 400 league minutes. Although Chelsea haven’t necessarily been at their best in these past few games, this certainly isn’t the fault of Hudson-Odoi. For such a young player, his creative numbers have been extremely impressive. Against Arsenal, he topped the squad for expected assists, with 0.49 on the night. And this has been a trend for the entirety of the campaign. When looking at players who have played more than 500 league minutes, Hudson-Odoi has more expected assists per 90 than any of his teammates. He’s now scored 1 and assisted 1 in Chelsea’s last 3 matches, and is quietly becoming one of the key players in this Chelsea setup. When playing in a heavily possession-based system, you need to have players with natural creative abilities, and Hudson-Odoi has certainly demonstrated that. 

Injuries

From an injury perspective, Leicester have been just as lucky as they have been with their results. None of their major players have experienced any long-term injuries this campaign, while their squad remains fully fit at the moment. Only Amartey and Mendy are currently sidelined, but neither have played crucial roles this campaign. Amartey is yet to play a minute in the Premier League, while Mendy has been limited to a bit-part role given the prominence of Ndidi. However, despite a fortunate injury situation, Rodgers’ men have struggled with the intensity of the Premier League campaign. Rodgers has rarely rotated his side this season, and recently some of his players have begun to show signs of fatigue. Players like Ndidi, Tielemans and Vardy have all been forced to miss matches over the past few weeks due to a lack of fitness. This has largely affected the quality of their performances, and has been one of the main reasons for their dropoff in form. 

For Chelsea, they’ve been hampered by injury problems for the entire season. Before the season had even started, Kante and Rudiger were already sidelined, and they’ve struggled with injuries since. Although their problems have eased up slightly, they could be without a number of key players for this crucial fixture. The big news of course, is the potential absence of Tammy Abraham. Having picked up an ankle injury recently, he is now a doubt for this fixture, but is still in contention to start. Although he hasn’t been in superb form, it’s difficult to see where Chelsea’s goals come from without their number nine. Christian Pulisic is another attacker who is facing injury adversity. The American winger has now missed each of Chelsea’s last three Premier League games. Unlike Tammy Abraham, he shouldn’t be available for this fixture, and it’s estimated that he’ll be out of action until mid-February.

Summary & Prediction

With just 14 matches left to play, all eyes will be on the Premier League this weekend in what will be a crucial fixture in the race for Champions League football. In what has really been a surprising turn of events, both Chelsea and Leicester are in prime positions to obtain top four spots despite their relatively low expectations. They have each markedly improved from the season prior, but this upcoming game could alter their respective campaigns. Especially in Chelsea’s case, a loss could have long term implications. Like mentioned earlier, they are just 6 points ahead of the chasing pack, and if their poor run of form continues they could fall down the table quickly. In a difficult away game against one of the best sides in the division, Chelsea certainly will have a lot on their minds. However, I believe they’ve shown far more quality in the league this season, which has been shown by their impressive underlying numbers. I predict a 1-2 Chelsea win.