GW 23: Norwich vs. Bournemouth

Norwich vs. Bournemouth

As we move into January, relegation becomes a much more threatening prospect to the teams near the bottom of the table. And with just 16 matches left to play, both Norwich and Bournemouth find themselves in critically dangerous positions. While most of the attention is often focused on teams further up the table, it’s always interesting to look towards those relegation spots and analyze what’s gone wrong. This upcoming match can only be defined as a relegation “6 pointer” as these sides currently sit in 20th and 19th respectively. For Norwich this may of been more of an expectation, given their relative lack of financing in the summer. But for Bournemouth, alarm bells will be ringing as they are in danger of dropping out of the Premier League for the first time in 5 seasons. They are, however, just 2 points away from safety, making this winnable match incredibly crucial. When these sides met last, Bournemouth weren’t able to capitalize on their opportunity despite being the home side. In the reverse fixture between them, the match surprisingly ended in a 0-0 draw, with neither team bringing home the three points. Looking back at this, that match has been vital to each of their respective seasons, and has potentially led them into these worrying situations.

Norwich

Norwich in particular have been struggling this season, as they’ve found it difficult to adapt to the pace of the Premier League. Despite winning the Championship last campaign, they currently sit rock-bottom, 8 points away from the sanctity of 17th place. Their recent form has been horrific having gone without a win in 9 Premier League matches. In many ways, Norwich are reminiscent of Fulham’s side last season who got relegated. Farke has taken a progressive approach to his first season as a Premier League manager, but this has left his side with more defensive deficiencies than attacking advantages. This was demonstrated to full effect in their last match, in which they lost 4-0 to Manchester United. Although the Red Devils only took 13 shots in the match, these chances amounted to a total of 3.13 expected goals, indicating why Norwich were so badly beaten in the match.

And this is a trend that we’ve seen for the majority of the season. According to expected goals, Norwich have the second worst defensive record in the division, with only Aston Villa falling behind them in this category. Also, they’ve conceded more goals than any other side in the division, having let in 45 in just 22 matches. Then, when looking at Norwich’s attacking numbers, you can see that the Canaries are struggling at both ends of the field. Although they started the season strongly in that regard, their power as a creative force has dried up as of late. When looking at their first 13 matches of the season, they averaged 1.11 expected goals per match. But since their last win in the division, they have been averaging just 0.92 expected goals per match, a huge dropoff. While much of this can be attributed to Pukki’s anticipated decline, Farke is also at fault for numerous changes to his starting eleven. Despite employing a possession-based gameplan, Farke has increasingly begun to play less possession-based players. The likes of Leitner, Trybull and Stiepermann have all seen limited minutes recently which has potentially hurt Norwich’s attacking system.

One player, however, who continues to perform amidst this period of distress is Emiliano Buendia. The Argentine has broken into the Premier League superbly, as he has not only been one of the best players in the league this season, but also one of the best in Europe. While this may sound rather extreme for a player in a side of Noriwch’s caliber, his numbers are continuously comparable to some of the best attacking players around. When looking at players who have played over 500 minutes, Buendia averages the most dribbles per 90 as well as the most key passes in the Norwich squad. Slightly more surprisingly, he is also an incredible defensive force, with the second best tackle numbers among his fellow teammates. In the Premier League as a whole, he ranks 2nd for key passes per match, with only Kevin De Bruyne making more per appearance. Against a Bournemouth side who have been characterized by their weak midfield this season, Buendia will obviously pose a massive creative threat as he has done for the entirety of the campaign.

Norwich can also look to create through their full-backs, and in particular Max Aarons. Aarons is another player, like Buendia, who has been fairly impressive this campaign, and probably deserves a move to a bigger side. The young right-back has shown a number of deficiencies in his game recently, but he is perfect for a match like this. While his defensive abilities leave much to be desired, his forward play has been a defining feature of the limited success that Norwich have had this year. He is averaging 1.4 dribbles per match as well as 0.8 key passes; not bad for a defensive player. Also, he is an extremely confident player when on the ball despite his young age, which has allowed him to act as one of Norwich’s chief progressors. Aarons could definitely look to boss the right flank in this match. In Bournemouth’s 4-2-4 formation, they often leave themselves heavily exposed on the wings. Aarons will be going head-to-head with Ryan Fraser in this game, who averages just 0.7 tackles and interceptions per match.

Bournemouth

Bournemouth as a whole this year have fallen well below their usual standards. Premier League football has become an expectation for the fans, as they’ve witnessed a consistent run of mid-table finishes over the last few years. In each of their last 3 seasons, they’ve finished the campaign with a gap of at least 10 points between them and the relegation zone. This season though, numerous problems have emerged which have landed the Cherries firmly inside the relegation places. While they’ve always had defensive problems under Eddie Howe, it’s their attacking struggles this season that have let them down. In each of their last four Premier League campaigns they have conceded over 60 goals, averaging 66 conceded per season. In the past, however, this has been overridden by their impressive attacking displays. In 2018/19 they ranked as the 7th best attacking side in the division according to expected goals, while the year before that they ranked 13th. 

However; 22 games into this campaign and they rank 17th, having scored just 20 times. The Cherries have now failed to score in 6 of their last 8 Premier League matches, as Eddie Howe’s system is slowly capitulating. Numerous attacking injuries have left Howe with little pace in the squad, with Brooks and King both out of action at the moment. While Harry Wilson has performed admirably, he hasn’t managed to succeed Brooks from a creative standpoint. Also, Fraser’s creative output has declined as expected. The Scot had a superb 18/19 campaign, but it was never realistic for him to put up the same numbers again. Last season he contributed to 21 goals in the league, but that has been reduced to just 4 so far this campaign. However, with the defensive weaknesses that Norwich have shown this season, Bournemouth need to get back to their goal scoring ways. In this particular match, they could look to do this through counter-attacking, as this is something that has worked quite well for many teams against the Canaries this season.

In this regard, Fraser could look to get off the mark in this match. Despite his poor start to the season, he has the opportunity to make an impact in this game, against a poor defensive side. Both Max Aarons and Jamal Lewis for Norwich play in advanced full-back roles, in which they consistently look to break forwards from their defensive positions. Especially in Howe’s 4-2-4 formation, the wingers will have a big effect on how Bournemouth take advantage of this. With the pace that Fraser has at his disposal, he’ll be the most obvious threat in this match. With a number of players out injured, Fraser is one of the only pacey players left in their attack. In this sense, it should be the Scot who has the most influence on the Cherries’ counter-attacking play. Along with this, Fraser has continued to put up decent creative numbers, averaging 1.8 key passes per 90 in the Premier League. While this certainly isn’t brilliant, he remains one of the most creative players in the squad.

Despite this, Fraser’s tally of 3 assists is far from impressive. Although Fraser has seen a dropoff in his performances, he hasn’t been helped by the players around him. While Callum Wilson was on fire last season, scoring 14 and assisting 9 in the league, he has been incredibly disappointing this year. While he was never expected to maintain his rate of contribution from the 18/19 campaign, he has scored just 5 goals in the Premier League this season while he hasn’t managed a single assist. His shot numbers have dropped from 2.3 to 1.5 per 90 this campaign. For a starting striker in a Premier League side, this is inadequate. Even when compared to his struggling Bournemouth teammates, this ranks 4th in the squad. And when looking at Pukki for Norwich, the Fin is averaging 2.6 per 90. At the moment, playing against Norwich is a striker’s dream, as much of their defence is built out of Championship level players. Wilson’s dropoff is a huge worry though, and Howe will be praying that it doesn’t continue to affect them over the back half of the season.

Injuries

One thing that has certainly affected both of these sides to a great extent this season are the severe injury crises that they are each going through. For Norwich, their problems were there from the beginning of the season and haven’t let up since. Although they’ve had a few players return recently, their squad is incredibly bare especially having not spent much during the summer transfer window. The main problems continue to be in defence for Farke’s men. Klose, Godfrey and Hanley are all doubts coming into this game, leaving Norwich with just one designated central defender. This could mean bringing Amadou from midfield to defence as they’ve had to do on numerous occasions this campaign. It could also force Farke to name Grant Hanley in the squad, despite the minor injury that he’s sustained. They are also facing problems up front as both Pukki and Drmic are currently suffering from hamstring problems. Although they could return for this match, Farke has limited options in attack at the moment.

Bournemouth are going through similar injury woes, and are perhaps in an even worse situation. The injuries to both Brooks and King have already been mentioned, and neither of these key attackers are set to return before the start of February. Rotation options Danjuma and Stanislas will also be missing the next few weeks or so which leaves Bournemouth with limited personnel in the wide areas. However, like Norwich, Bournemouth’s biggest problems come in defence. Mepham at center-back and Stacey, Kelly and Daniels at full-back are all anticipated to miss this match. Although this is actually much better than it has been over previous weeks, it certainly leaves some holes in their defence. The absence of Chris Mepham has been particularly costly, as the young center-back has been a regular starter when fit. The final but perhaps most worrying problem for the Cherries is the hamstring issue that Aaron Ramsdale has picked up. The goalkeeper has started in 21 of Bournemouth’s 22 matches this campaign, but was forced to miss their last match. His understudy Mark Travers had an atrocious day at the office, conceding three against relegation candidates Watford.

Summary & Prediction

In many ways the injury issues that these sides are facing are indicative of the teams themselves. Although these injuries have hampered them greatly over the course of the season, neither of these sides were well equipped in the first place. For Norwich, the harsh reality of the Premier League has hit them fast and hard, while they’ve faced the consequences of trying to play with a possession-based system. For Bournemouth, their defensive problems seem to have finally caught up with them now that their attack has been misfiring. These sides are most similar in that they have been relying on their attacking presence over the last few years, and have never been massively concerned about their defensive security. And this season they’ve each been equally as bad in attack as they have been at the back. Bournemouth currently have the worst attacking record in the Premier League having scored just 20 goals so far, while Norwich rank 16th in this regard.

While the 0-0 draw between them shocked many back in October, it makes perfect sense when looking at this. Now though, with Norwich at home, the Canaries need to narrow the gap between them and their upcoming opponents. While Norwich have collected the least points in the division, their home form has been marginally better than their away form. They have gained 9 points when at home this season compared to 5 when away, with 2 of their 3 wins coming at Carrow Road. And personally, I believe this will be enough to get them over the line. Although their form has been awful this season, they look to have a number of advantages over this Bournemouth team. There are massive gaps in Farke’s squad at the moment, but Bournemouth don’t look stable enough to capitalize on these flaws. With the likes of Buendia, Cantwell, Pukki and Aarons at Farke’s disposal, Norwich seem to have the better individual talent which could be enough to earn them a win here. My final prediction is 2-1 to the Premier League basement boys.