GW 23: Liverpool vs. Manchester United

Liverpool vs. Manchester United

The biggest rivalry in England? Although it hasn’t been the most highly esteemed fixture over the last few years, the history between the sides would certainly suggest so. The atmosphere surrounding the game is always brilliant, showing what it means to the fans. And across the last three or four seasons, the results are certainly indicative of a typical English rivalry. In the last 5 meetings between them, their have been 3 draws, with each team winning 1. This is despite the Premier League dominance that Liverpool have shown over this period. Since the 17/18 campaign, Liverpool have gained 52 more points than the Manchester outfit, yet the results tell a different story. Although the quality of this United side is far from what it used to be, when they meet Liverpool, their league form seems to melt away. In October, this was certainly the case, as the teams played out a rigid 1-1 draw. Although this doesn’t sound like anything too spectacular, this is the only league game that Liverpool have failed to win this season. Incredible when you consider that we’re 22 gameweeks into the campaign.

Liverpool

At the moment, England and the rest of the world are witnessing history, as this Liverpool side are arguably one of the greatest of all time. Having finished with 97 points last year, this was already an outstanding achievement, but they failed to win their elusive first Premier League title. This season, however, they look to be on the right track. They currently sit well clear at the top of the table, with an incredible 14 point lead over Manchester City in 2nd. They are also 27 points of their upcoming opponents, indicating the gulf in quality between the Reds and the Red Devils. Along with this, they are doing this with a game in hand over the other sides in the division. They are yet to lose this season, and in fact are yet to lose since January 3rd of 2019 when they lost to Manchester City. This means they have gone unbeaten for more than an entire calendar year, something that only three teams in history have managed. 

The only blip on their record this season came in their earlier match against Manchester United. When looking into that game, it’s clear to see why they struggled. United were set up in an incredibly conservative manner by Solskjaer, as they looked to play on the break. And when they scored in the 36th minute by means of a quick counter-attack, they were able to sit back and defend for the majority of the match. Their goal was one of just 7 shots that they took over the course of the 90 minutes, while they were able to keep Liverpool to just 10 as well. If Solskjaer employs a three at the back formation as he did previously, then Liverpool will need to find a new way to break down this deep block. However, they should be in a strong creative position if United go with the 4-2-3-1 that has become the norm for them over the last couple of months.

In either scenario, Roberto Firmino will be crucial to how Liverpool go about their creative work. The Brazilian is having one of his best ever seasons at the club, playing a crucial role in Klopp’s attacking system as always. It’s well documented that he varies from most typical strikers, playing as a reserved attacker at the center of Liverpool’s 4-3-3. And in this match, he has the perfect skill set to unhinge this United defence. Against what will most likely be an incredibly compact United backline, Firmino is the player within Liverpool's attack who will be able to create space. By dropping deep, he allows Salah and Mane the chance to make runs off of him and into the central areas. In this game, he can also help Liverpool to create an overload in midifield. In any case, you would expect Solskjaer to employ a two man midfield as he has done all season. This gives Liverpool the chance to create a four on two situation in the middle of the park, which should give them control over possession and tempo in the match.

Over the past few matches, Liverpool have also controlled the game through their defensive performances. While many people were critical of their defensive stability at the beginning of the season, the Reds have bounced back brilliantly now with Joe Gomez partnering Van Dijk at center-back. Until recently, Klopp preferred both Lovren and Matip over the young Englishman, however; a defensive injury crisis has forced Gomez into action. Quite frankly, he’s been loving it. Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 6 matches, with Joe Gomez having played every minute over this period. Prior to this spell, Liverpool had kept just 2 clean sheets in the league. Expected goals shows that Liverpool have been by far and away the best defensive team during this period, having conceded 2 less expected goals than the next best side. And in this match, someone with Gomez’s abilities will be crucial to Liverpool’s chances. The youngster is an incredibly pacey player, which is perfect when going up against a counter-attacking side. 

Manchester United

United have had an interesting year up to this point. While they have clearly been below expectations in a number of areas, they sit in 5th, and are in the running for Champions League football. However, it has been a very on again off again season for Solskjaer and his men, as they can’t seem to put a string of games together. They are yet to win 3 Premier League matches in a row this season, which for a club of Manchester United’s stature is surprising to say the least. Recently though, things have been improving for the Red Devils as they’ve won 5 of their last 8 league matches. This includes 3 in their last 4, with a loss to Arsenal the only fault during this run. While they might only have beaten Norwich, Burnley and Newcastle, it’s good to see that they are finally finding success against the league’s smaller clubs. Much of their failure this year has come from their inability to dispatch of some of the league’s minnows. 

Their best performances, however, have come when playing against the elite sides. Due to their lack of a creative midfielder, they tend to thrive when playing on the counter-attack, and not when going up against a deep-block. With players like Rashford, Martial and James in their attack, they have the ability to hit teams with extreme pace on the break. This was demonstrated in their back to back wins against Manchester City and Spurs earlier this year, along with their draw against Liverpool. And these games will be the base on which they build their plan for this fixture. While Liverpool outclass them in almost every area of the pitch, United have a chance at this game if they remain defensively solid. While playing on the break hasn’t always worked for United in the past, it’s the only real option for them here, against a dominant side.

Obviously, this brings to attention the importance of Marcus Rashford in this upcoming fixture. The Englishman is having his best season in a United shirt to date, having scored 14 and assisted 4 despite spending most of his time on the wing. His recent form has been great as well, as he has scored 4 in his last 4 in the league. He also managed to grab a goal against Manchester City in the League Cup a couple weeks back, despite a poor performance from United as a whole. While Liverpool’s backline has proven to be adept at dealing with pacey players recently, Rashford has put on some solid performances against the Reds in the past. In his last 4 matches against them, he’s scored an impressive 3 goals, including 1 in the reverse fixture this season. When playing on the left in this game, he can look to challenge the inexperienced Joe Gomez and Trent Alexander-Arnold, who both play on the right, clearly Liverpool’s weaker defensive side. 

In recent games, Manchester United have also been able to use their full-backs to great effect when attacking. Although Wan-Bissaka has still struggled to make an attacking impact on the right, Brandon Williams has made a step up over recent matches. He’s only 19 but he is slowly working his way into the first team at United, and performed admirably in their last match against Norwich. If he were to play here though, he would be facing a much different task. While Williams has shown his impressive attacking attributes, it’s yet to be seen if he can put up consistent defensive performances. Against Norwich he managed to make a superb 8 tackles and interceptions, which was a match high. However, the difference here is that he’ll be going up against Mohamed Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold. In his 5 starts, Williams has never gone up against a traditional big 6 side, and this upcoming game will be a  test of his defensive abilities. 

Injuries

While you wouldn’t think it, Liverpool are going through a minor injury crisis at the moment. They were hit hard by their busy winter schedule in which they played 9 games in various competitions over the month of December. Now, while some players are recovering, they are left with a relatively bare squad. In defence, both Lovren and Matip have each been out for a while now, and are both doubts for this match. In defensive midfield, Fabinho is on the recovery path, and it’s possible that he returns from his ankle injury in this match. Other midfield issues include a hamstring problem for James Milner and a groin injury that Naby Keita picked up a few weeks back. This has left Liverpool with limited options in both defence and midfield for a number of weeks now, but they have fought through this period admirably. The aforementioned Joe Gomez has come into the side brilliantly while Jordan Henderson has been superb after being dropped into defensive midfield during Fabinho’s absence.

Injury issues have been a huge problem for Manchester United as well this year, and they come into this match with a number of crucial absences. Periphery players Rojo, Tuanzebe and Bailly are all currently out injured and are unlikely to return. In bigger news, Luke Shaw is a doubt yet again due to a hamstring problem, and it’s unknown if he’ll be available or not for this crucial fixture. With Ashley Young expected to join Inter Milan on a permanent transfer shortly, this leaves United with limited full-back options. The most worrying problems come in midfield though, where both Scott McTominay and Paul Pogba are set for a few more weeks on the sidelines. While Pogba has been out for most of the season due to various injuries, McTominay has just recently picked up a knee problem and United fans are concerned, as the defensive midfielder could be out until March. Finally, Marcus Rashford is also a doubt for this game as he picked up a back problem against Wolves, and his absence would obviously hamper Solskjaer’s gameplan massively. 

Summary & Prediction

Despite the massive gap in quality between the two teams, the nature of this fixture is always going to bring about an interesting match. Although Liverpool come into the match as clear favorites, United have performed well as the “underdogs” in prior meetings with the Reds. Their style of play this season has been geared towards counter-attacking, and like mentioned earlier, they have found quite a bit of success against the bigger sides in the division. Liverpool are no ordinary team, however, as Jurgen Klopp’s Reds have been on a record breaking campaign. No team has accumulated more points in their first 21 matches than this Reds side, who are currently on 61 having dropped just 2 points all season. And in a big game like this, Liverpool will be aided by the support of their home fans. 

Although they weren’t able to beat United last time out, you feel that with Anfield behind them, they are almost unstoppable. The Reds have won each of their last 18 Premier League home matches, while they’ve gone undefeated at home for 53 games in the Premier League. This equates to nearly 3 years without a home defeat. This season they’ve been absolutely imperious when at their home ground, having won 11 out of 11 with a goal difference of plus 20. This will certainly worry a United side who have struggled on the road this campaign. The Red Devils currently have the 10th best away record in the league, not good enough for a club of their stature. In 11 games, they have won just 3, a record more suited to a mid-table side. For this reason, Liverpool look incredibly likely to win in this match. While the derby atmosphere has got United through this fixture on numerous occasions in the past, this Liverpool side look as though they could beat anyone; especially when at home. My final prediction is 2-1 to the Reds, as they continue their unbeaten start to the Premier League season.