GW 22: Tottenham vs. Liverpool

Tottenham vs. Liverpool

During a difficult time in the season, as we enter the new year and leave the festive fixtures behind us, Tottenham seem to be struggling under Jose Mourinho while Liverpool are continuing on their imperious run of form. The Reds of course, come into this match on top of the Premier League table, and are loving life in every possible way. They currently have an incredible 13 point lead over 2nd place Leicester, and an even more impressive 28 point lead over their upcoming opponents. While this is perhaps more indicative of Liverpool’s recent Premier League dominance, it also provides an insight into how Spurs are performing this campaign. The Lilywhites currently sit in 6th, having won just 8 of their 21 Premier League games to start the season. They have, however, seen an improvement since the last time they faced the Reds. When these teams met up earlier in the season, Liverpool came out of the match with a relatively comfortable 2-1 win. Despite going down in the early stages of the match, the Reds dominated for the majority of the fixture, eventually racking up 21 shots to Spurs’ 11. While Tottenham have moved up the table since then, they have struggled to create a dominant team under Jose Mourinho, and are still largely inferior to this superb Liverpool side.

Tottenham

After Mourinho’s first few matches in charge, things looked promising for Spurs as they managed to obtain a few valuable wins. Recently though, things have been going south, as they have won just 1 of their last 4 Premier League matches. Their last match against Southampton will have been particularly disappointing, as they lost 1-0 to a side who have been near the relegation zone this season. They were outshot 12 to 11 in the match and expected goals shows that they were deservedly on the wrong end of the scoreline. Although it looked as though Mourinho would turn Tottenham’s fortunes around, a countless number of problems have emerged in recent weeks. They lack width on both defence and attack, the midfield hasn’t been defensively solid, the midfielders are for the most part not press-resistant, the side is struggling to play out from the back, and the center-backs lack the pace to deal with the league’s top strikers. 

Particularly in defence, this Tottenham side have been well below-par for the entirety of Jose’s managerial spell at the club. Since Mourinho’s first Premier League game in charge of Spurs, his side have conceded a total of 13 goals in 9 matches. Although expected goals shows that they have been rather unlucky, there is still reason for concern given they are also stuttering in attack. Since the day of Jose’s appointment, his Spurs side have ranked 7th by expected goals in the league. While this isn’t terrible, it equates to just 13.26 expected goals over the 9 matches that they’ve played during his tenure. This isn’t good enough for a side aiming for Champions League football. It’s also not what you want to see when coming up against this Liverpool side. Over this same period, Liverpool have easily been the best defensive side in the division. In the 8 matches they’ve played in, they have conceded just 5.94 expected goals, 3.06 better than the next best side. 

The return of Son will provide them with a massive boost though. The Korean has now missed each of his side’s last 3 Premier League matches after receiving a suspension for violent conduct. And his absence has certainly been felt. In the three games that he has missed, Spurs have scored just 3 goals despite facing Brighton, Norwich and Southampton. In Son’s 6 starts under Mourinho in all competitions, he has scored 2 goals and assisted a further 5, proving how valuable he is to this side. Particularly from a creative standpoint, he has been the engine within Jose Mourinho’s attack. Without his pace and power on the wing, Spurs have been forced to take on a more possession-based approach, which has never really suited a Mourinho side. Under Mourinho, Spurs have played their best football when on the counter, and Son allows them to do this effectively. Against a Liverpool side who love to keep hold of the ball, Spurs could create their best chances on the break, and Son will undoubtedly play a crucial role in this on his return.

Although Son’s suspension has obviously harmed the team, young Ryan Sessegnon has been able to shine through in his absence. With the injuries and suspensions around the squad, the wingback made his first Premier League start just a couple weeks ago. The youngster can play anywhere along the left flank, but over the last few matches he has primarily been used as a full-back. This does, however, expose his defensive flaws. While he is a solid all-round player, his defensive game is definitely his weakest area. He thrives when his side is in possession, and when he’s able to run at the opposing defenders. For this reason, Jose Mourinho could look to employ a three at the back formation; not something that he has experimented with thoroughly during his time at Spurs. This would not only allow for more defensive security for the aging Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen, but it would also add more width to the side, both offensively and defensively.

Liverpool

While Jose Mourinho and Spurs have been struggling to find solutions to their ongoing problems, Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp are absolutely flying. Like mentioned earlier, the Reds have an outstanding 13 point lead over their nearest rivals as they remain unbeaten after 20 matches in the league. And this is merely an extension on an incredible run of form in which they have gone undefeated in their last 37 Premier League games. No matter what challenge this Liverpool side have to face, they seem to have the answer. When playing against possession-based teams, they counter using the pace of their wingers and the passing ability of their midfielders and full-backs. When they’re forced to be the dominant side, they use the wide areas to great effect, with their full-backs playing a crucial creative role. We’ve seen Jurgen Klopp employ everything from a long-ball gameplan to a high-pressing style of play this year, and the versatility that he has shown as a manager has been vital to his side’s success.

Although this Liverpool side have faced some minor issues along the way, Klopp has identified and fixed these problems quickly. Early in the season, Liverpool were accused of being defensively poor, however; they have now kept a clean sheet in each of their last 5 Premier League matches as they appear more omnipotent than ever. In as many ways as Spurs are struggling, Liverpool are succeeding. And as they come into this game against the Lilywhites, they will undoubtedly be the more comfortable and confident team. This confidence is something that comes with being the current champions of both Europe and the world, as well as with the superb form that they’ve shown in the league. In reality, they’ve earned the right to be confident. Liverpool have racked up an impressive 13.14 expected goals over their last 5 Premier League matches, the best attacking record over this period. And like mentioned earlier, they are by far and away the best defensive side in the division.

While you’d like to think that Spurs might be able to challenge their run of Premier League dominance, Liverpool don’t look like they’re going to be unsettled. Players like Trent Alexander-Arnold are perfect examples of their season so far. The young right-back has already begun revolutionizing his position at the tender age of 21. He has provided 8 assists in the league this campaign, which is only bettered by De Bruyne in the Premier League. His wide array of passing has consistently allowed Liverpool to unhinge their opponents, and you’d expect the same here in this upcoming match. The Englishman is 3rd for key passes in the league this year with an impressive 3 per 90 despite his defensive position. Especially if Tottenham fail to switch to a three at the back, Alexander-Arnold should be able to cause havoc on the right side of the field through the wide threat that he possesses. Spurs have often been undone in the wide areas this season, and against the strongest crosser of the ball in the league, they could be facing some major problems.

Their four at the back formation could also leave them vulnerable to Liverpool’s wingers, and in particular Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian loves playing against Spurs. In the 6 matches that he’s played against the Lilywhites for Liverpool, he’s scored 5 and assisted 1, averaging a goal contribution every match. Having already scored in the reverse fixture between the sides earlier in the season, you’d expect him to add to his tally here, especially when considering Spurs’ recent defensive woes. The winger has been in great form as well. In his last 6 league and Champions League matches, Salah has scored 5 and assisted 1, as he seems to be back at his best following some minor injuries earlier in the season. No matter how Spurs line up, Salah will cause problems for them. Against a flat four at the back, Salah will be able to occupy his opposing full-back and open up the wide areas for Alexander-Arnold. And against a three at the back, we’ve seen Salah consistently torment teams by making runs in between the center-back and wingback.

Injuries

If you thought Jose had enough on his hands coming into this game, his problems have been further extended due to the severe injury crisis that this Spurs side are going through. Tottenham could be missing as many as eight senior players coming into this match, with a few serious issues emerging in recent weeks. Hugo Lloris is of course still suffering from a long-term arm injury with an unknown return date. At full-back, Spurs are particularly weakened. Three of Tottenham’s four first team full-backs are currently out injured, with Aurier the only remaining player in that position. For this reason, Mourinho could opt for a three at the back in this game, which might actually prove to be more successful. They’re struggling in midifield too though, as both Moussa Sissoko and Tanguy Ndombele are absent at the moment. While it’s possible that Ndombele makes an appearance here, Sissoko’s injury is much more serious and he could be on the sidelines until April. Finally, perhaps the biggest blow to this Tottenham squad is the absence of Harry Kane, whose hamstring injury could keep him out until April as well.

While this makes it seem like Spurs will have a huge disadvantage in this upcoming match, Liverpool’s situation is not dissimilar. The Reds have fallen victim to their busy winter period, and have lost a few key players over the last few weeks. Their injuries at center-back are well documented and perhaps most serious, as they are missing both Matip and Lovren. The other major injury facing the squad is Fabinho’s ankle problem that has kept him out for more than a month. There are more problems in midfield, however, as Milner, Keita and Shaqiri could all miss this match through more minor issues. Oxlade-Chamberlain is also coming off a recent injury, and although he played a few minutes last time out, his contributions could be limited here. Although Spurs are clearly suffering from more intense issues, Liverpool are going through a minor injury crisis themselves. While both teams find themselves in difficult situations, the major difference is in how the respective managers have dealt and will deal with these problems.

Summary & Prediction

This season it’s been Klopp’s intelligence that has given his side the edge. Both sides are in possession of an extraordinary amount of individual talent, but Klopp has managed both the on field and off field issues better. First Pochetinho and now Mourinho have each struggled with their own issues this season, which has seen Tottenham fall from a Champions League contender to a place in 6th. It’s worth noting their improvement since Jose has come in though. Although they currently look in distress, Spurs have managed to climb five places since the appointment of their new manager, and have improved both offensively and defensively according to expected goals. While it could take some time to create a more coherent squad, perhaps Mourinho should be given the time he needs to develop a new era at Spurs. 

Despite the many flaws that they have shown over the past few weeks, this Spurs side remain solid when at home. In 10 home Premier League matches this season, the Lilywhites have won an impressive 6, while collecting 20 points over this period. This strong form at the Tottenham Stadium has allowed them to remain competitive recently, and could be the base on which they build towards their future goals. Liverpool will certainly be a test to this home form, however, as the Reds have won 8 out of their 9 Premier League away games. With the problems that Tottenham are facing at the moment, it looks highly unlikely that they’ll be able to trouble this dominant Liverpool team. Despite Spurs being the home side, Liverpool are the clear favourites, as they would be against any team in the division. For this reason, I can only see a comfortable Liverpool win forthcoming. My final prediction is 0-2 to the Reds.