GW 22: Everton vs. Brighton

Everton vs. Brighton

After a break from league action due to the 3rd round of the FA Cup, the Premier League is set to return this weekend along with the usual drama that comes with it. While most of the focus will likely be on the game between Tottenham and Liverpool, Everton and Brighton are facing on the same day in what should be an interesting mid-table clash. Although this wouldn’t typically be thought of as a must-watch match, both of these sides have been intriguing recently. Currently, the sides sit in 11th and 14th respectively, however; they look set to improve over the second half of the season. This is largely due to the quality of manager that each of these clubs have at the helm. Graham Potter has already given a massive boost to this Brighton side who were nearly relegated last year, while Carlo Ancellotti has started his managerial career at Everton strongly. Also, both of these teams have already made big improvements since there match against each other earlier in the campaign. In October they played out a thrilling 3-2 game at the AMEX in which Brighton came out on top as the deserved winners. However, with big changes being made over the subsequent three months, you’d be right to expect an entirely different match.

Everton

After an incredibly poor start to the season, Everton look better equipped coming into this game havings seemingly settled the ship. And they certainly aren’t going to concede as many goals as they did last time against Brighton, now with Carlo Ancelotti in charge. While Everton’s ex-manager Marco Silva was more of a progressive thinker, Ancelloti has based his career on system and organization. And so far, he’s managed to implement his system rather successfully at Everton. In the three Premier League games that he has managed for the Toffees, his side have come out on top in two of them. They did, however, suffer a defeat in their last match in which they faced Manchester City. They were rather uninspiring in this game as they failed to make a real impact until the last 30 minutes of the match. Ancelotti set his side up in typically conservative fashion, while he struggled to find the balance between attack and defence throughout the game. 

Although he managed strong results in his other two matches, these problems have been evident in each of his three games in charge. And surprisingly, his side haven’t been as defensively solid as one might expect. Although they have conceded just 3 goals during his tenure, expected goals shows that this should be 3.98. It’s actually in attack where they’ve been most impressive. In Ancelotti’s three games in charge, his side have racked up 4.75 expected goals. This averages out to about 1.6 expected goals per match, a big improvement on their season average of 1.4. Much of this has been down to Everton’s switch to a two up front formation. This is something that interim manager Duncan Ferguson favoured during his short time in charge but something that Marco Silva never clocked onto. At the moment, Ancelotti has been employing it to great effect in his 4-4-2/3-5-2 formation.

One man who has taken to life quickly under the new boss is Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who is absolutely flying at the moment. The Englishman is in great form having scored 3 goals in Ancelotti’s first 3 games with the club. This is, however, merely an extension on what has been a superb run of games for the striker. Over the month of December he scored a total of 5 goals in the Premier League, which is 62.5% of his overall total of 8. Also, he has now played the full 90 minutes in each of Everton’s last 6 Premier League matches, indicating the trust that both Duncan Ferguson and Carlo Ancelotti have shown in him. While Calvert-Lewin doesn’t necessarily have the best on the ball skills, he complements the other attackers in the squad with his physical presence and superb workrate. In this upcoming game, Calvert-Lewin will continue to be the threat that he has been over his last few matches, as he is crucial to Everton’s crossing-based system.

In terms of the game at hand though, it could be Richarlison who shines through. Due to Brighton’s possession-based approach, Richarlison is the more likely player to make an impact. The speed and power that he possesses will mean that he’ll be more threatening on the break to this Brighton side. And this is something that the Seagulls have struggled with this season. Brighton have averaged 53.9% possession in the league this campaign, meaning they are often prone to counter-attacking scenarios. While they have improved this recently by adding more solidity to the midfield, they have still shown a tendency to be disorganized at the back. Richarlison is the perfect player to take advantage of this, as he offers drive and determination from an attacking area. The Brazilian has averaged a respectable 1.7 dribbles per match this campaign, the 2nd highest in the Everton squad. Along with this, he too comes into this match on a strong run of form having popped up with a goal and an assist during Ancelotti’s short reign as manager.

Brighton

While Everton’s form and new-found stability might worry Brighton, the Seagulls will still be feeling confident coming into this game; knowing the promising signs that they’ve shown recently. Although they sit in 14th, and just 4 points off the relegation zone, the club’s hierarchy will be quite pleased with their season thus far. Graham Potter has implemented his system successfully in his first season as a Premier League manager, and has got his side playing some incredibly interesting football. Offensively, Brighton have been impressive this season and by expected goals their attack ranks 9th in the league. Another interesting aspect of their play is the amount of possession they tend to keep. Like mentioned earlier, they have the 5th highest possession statistics in the league, which has become a hallmark of this Potter side. Although this has often led to poor defensive performances, Potter is gradually starting to figure out a way to limit their defensive weaknesses while still getting the best out of their attack.

This has largely been down to their switch to a 4-1-2-1-2 formation. By adding an extra midfielder to the squad, Potter has increased his side’s defensive security while making it harder for teams to play through them on the counter-attack. Over their last 3 league games, they have averaged just 1.03 expected goals against; a massive improvement on their season average of 1.59. While this has had a slight impact on their attacking performances, they are starting to look like a much more composed side which will serve them well in the long run. This formation will also suit them well in this match. In Everton’s current formation, they are heavily focused on defending the wide areas, especially when they drop into a 4-4-2. Brighton’s formation, however, allows for an overload in the central channel, especially in the midfield. You would think that this would allow Brighton to dominate the game, as they could create a four on two situation in the middle of the park.

In this sense, auxiliary winger Aaron Mooy could be crucial to Brighton’s gameplan. Over the last few games, Mooy has been employed as a central-midfielder/winger. Playing on the right side of Brighton’s midfield diamond, he is in control of the width on the right side of the field. At times over the past few matches, we’ve seen him drifting into a right-wing position, in order to balance out the width that Trossard brings on the left. Defensively though, he slips back into a central area which has allowed Brighton to find more defensive solidity. Mooy is an incredibly versatile player, which is the reason that Potter has been able to set his team up in this flexible shape. While the Australian is not particularly great at any one thing, he is consistently solid across the pitch. This season he’s averaging 1.1 shots per game, 1.3 key passes and 1.7 dribbles. 

Another flexible player who has been brought into this Brighton midfield is Steven Alzate. The young Colombian has broken into the team this season under Graham Potter and has performed admirably in a number of games. Alzate, like Mooy, has been used in a number of positions this season, including on the left-wing. This has helped him drop into this new role in midfield, as he needs to have the versatility and awareness to drift wide at times. Saying this, he has operated in a much more central role than Mooy on the right, partnering Propper as a more defensive midfielder. In his last match against Chelsea in which he played in this role, he was actually quite defensively astute. He made 5 tackles and interceptions in the match, proving his defensive abilities. Alzate is another player in this Brighton team who has helped them take on a more defensively consistent gameplan, and with his impressive performances recently you would expect him to start again here.

Injuries

Although neither of these sides can blame their shortcomings on injuries this season, they each come into this match with a few worrying problems. Everton in particular have been struggling over the last couple of months, and have been rather unfortunate on the injury front. They have notably been missing both Andre Gomes and Jean-Phillipe Gbamin for large parts of the season, which has greatly limited them in midfield. It’s Gbamin’s absence that has potentially hurt the most, as without a solid defensive-midfield player they have lacked cover in front of their backline. After being brought in this summer, Gbamin was meant to fill the gap left by the imperious Idrissa Gueye after his move to PSG, but having played just 135 minutes this season, it hasn’t worked out for him so far. Everton also come into this match without Iwobi. The winger has now missed each of Everton’s last 3 games through a hamstring problem, and isn’t expected to return for this fixture.

Brighton come into this game in slightly better shape, with Dan Burn the only major absence for them. This could, however, prove to be rather costly, as the center-back come left-back has been in wonderful form this season. He has operated in multiple positions across the backline for Potter this campaign, and has clearly become a favourite of the manager. Astonishingly, he had played the full 90 minutes in each of Brighton’s first 20 league matches of the season before picking up a shoulder injury against Chelsea, proving his importance to the squad. He looks set for the sidelines for at least a month now, with his return estimated for late February. Brighton’s only other problems include minor injuries to both Solly March and Glenn Murray who have both been bit-part players this campaign. Also, Brighton  fielded a slightly weaker squad than Everton in last weekend’s FA Cup fixtures, which could give them a fitness advantage here.

Summary & Prediction

This season will have been relatively disappointing for both Everton and Brighton up to this point, however; both managers will be confident that they can push their teams up the table. Although they haven’t managed to achieve a top half position as we enter the new year, there have been a number of promising signs for both of these clubs, particularly over their last few matches. The improvement that Everton have shown under Carlo Ancelotti will inspire hope among the Everton fans, while Graham Potter continues to impress at Brighton. But with these side just 5 and 4 points off of the relegation zone respectively, this becomes a crucial fixture. Although you wouldn’t anticipate either of these sides to be facing the drop come the end of the season, their failure to build a gap between themselves and the bottom three will be worrying. 

Particularly for Everton, this should be a crucial match in their season, as their fans expect a top half finish from them. While Brighton will be content with a mid-table position, Everton need to start pushing on from their spot in 11th. And at home in this match they have a great chance to do so. The Toffees have actually been incredible when at home this season, having won 17 points at Goodison Park. This is more than double their amount away from home, proving that they really do thrive on their home soil. As for Brighton, their away stats are grim, as they have gained just 8 points from 10 matches when away this season. For this reason, Everton look the favourites to win this match. With the way that they have been playing lately, and with a more tactical manager at the helm of the club, you feel they can undo their mistakes from the last time they faced the Seagulls. My final prediction is a 2-1 Everton win, continuing the steady start to Ancelotti’s reign.