GW 18: Tottenham vs. Chelsea

Tottenham vs. Chelsea

While the London Derbies come thick and fast across the entirety of the Premier League campaign, the matches between Tottenham and Chelsea have stood out over the past few seasons, providing us with great entertainment. Both of these sides have rose substantially over the last couple of decades, not only challenging the top teams in the Premier League, but also against Europe’s elite in the Champions League. Neither of these clubs have been having a vintage season though, and while Chelsea do currently sit in a Champions League place, Spurs have found themselves languishing in 5th. This is set to be a crucial match in the race for Champions League football, as the sides are currently split by just 3 points, meaning Spurs would move ahead of their rivals if they were to win here. A fixture of this importance is something that these sides have become accustomed to when facing each other. At the end of the 2018/19 campaign, just 1 point separated the sides, while in 17/18 this gap was slightly wider at 7 points. This equivalence between the sides has also been demonstrated through their results, with each side winning 2 of the last 4 matches between them.

Tottenham

Despite Tottenham’s rocky start to the campaign, they have closed the gap between them and Chelsea as the season has gone on, and they will be looking to surpass their rivals in this match. This season will have been one of intrigue for Spurs fans up to this point. After collecting just 14 points from their opening 13 Premier League matches, long-term manager Pochetinho was sacked, being replaced by Jose Mourinho. In the 5 succeeding matches, they have collected 12 points, with 4 wins during this period. Mourinho has clearly had a big effect on the club, as he has brought a much needed positive atmosphere to the Tottenham Stadium. The one worry for this Spurs side heading into this match, will be their disappointing 2-1 loss to Manchester United a couple of weeks ago, which could indicate a weakness against the bigger clubs.

Saying this, Chelsea are a much different side to the Manchester United team that they faced on matchweek 15. In terms of tactics, United and Chelsea employ two entirely different styles of play. First and foremost, United tend to play with a heavily counter-attacking based system when playing against the bigger sides, while Chelsea have taken on a possession-based approach under Lampard. In Spurs’ match against United, they kept 54% possession, the most that they have kept in any of their Premier League matches under Mourinho. This correlated in their only loss during this period, meaning Chelsea’s tendency to keep hold of the ball could actually advantage Spurs. With the way that Mourinho has drilled this Spurs team, they have become a lethal counter-attacking side, who can go from back to front in a matter of seconds. With the pace that they have in the wide areas, as well as the strong creative spine that Mourinho has at his disposal, Spurs look well set up to do damage to this weakened Chelsea outfit.

While this style of play has been typical for a Jose Mourinho side, it’s Heung-Min Son who has allowed him to implement it successfully. Along with Lucas Moura on the right, Son brings pace and dribbling ability to the side, providing a source of progression. The reason that Son has been more crucial than Moura though, is his link up play with those in the center as well as his creative ability. In the Premier League this season, Son has scored 5 and assisted 7, with 2 goals and 4 assists coming in his 5 matches under Mourinho. However, what’s been even more important to this new look Spurs side is the energy and drive that Son brings. Son has been averaging an incredible 3.1 dribbles per 90 in the Premier League this campaign, the highest in the Spurs squad. In Chelsea’s system, the full-backs are allowed to roam forwards when in possession, and Son could look to get in behind them on the break, potentially posing a problem for Chelsea’s shaky central defensive pairing.

Another Spurs player who is bound to cause problems for this Chelsea backline is Dele Alli. Like Son, Alli has been superb since the arrival of Mourinho, thriving in his new role in the side. He has started every game under Mourinho’s management, having previously played just 373 Premier League minutes this season, and he has clearly become a favourite of the new manager. His role now is different to that in which he played under Pochettino, as Mourinho is clearly getting the best out of him. He is now being employed as a second striker almost, hovering around Harry Kane, but with the freedom to act as a more mobile attacker. Despite Chelsea’s strong midfield presence, you feel that Alli will still manage to stay effective. If he stays in line with Harry Kane, he can limit his contact with players like Jorginho and Kovacic while essentially creating a front two. We’ve seen this already in a couple of previous games, it could be successful yet again here if he manages to get on the ball frequently enough.

Chelsea

Chelsea this season have been a side of intrigue and surprise in many ways. With low expectations coming into this campaign, they have actually had an impressive season up to this point, remaining in a Champions League spot despite a difficult summer. The inexperienced Frank Lampard has brought a positive feel back to Stamford Bridge, as he has not only managed to bed in a number of youth prospects, but has also been getting solid results in the process. Lately though, things have turned against the Blues, as some worrying signs are starting to set in. Their recent run of results has been horrific, and the gap between them and Spurs is closing rapidly. They have now lost 4 of their last 5 Premier League matches, including losses in each of their last 2 games. In the same period in which Spurs have gained 12 points, Chelsea have gained just 3, and at the moment they are heading in only one direction.

While they have been unlucky to lose a couple of these matches, they are still clearly experiencing a drop in form. Much of this has spurred from their overarching defensive issues, which have been apparent since the start of the season but haven’t caused many problems until now. They are currently on a run of 5 Premier League games without a clean sheet, while they have kept just 3 clean sheets in the competition this season. By expected goals, they have the 6th best defensive record in the division; not good enough for a team who want to challenge for the top 4. Defensively, they have been unusually similar to Manchester City this campaign. Like City, they tend to dominate possession, pushing their midfielders and full-backs high up the pitch. And like City, they are extremely vulnerable to counter-attacking sides, as they are without a strong central defensive pairing. Chelsea are incredibly good at limiting their opponents chances, allowing just 9.3 shots per game, however; the average shot they concede has a weight of 0.13 expected goals.

This is one of the highest in the division along with teams like Manchester City, indicating why they have such a poor defensive record. Individually though, some of Chelsea’s players have been performing admirably this campaign; particularly in the case of Cesar Azpilicueta. Despite reaching the age of 30, Azpilicueta has remained a rock in this Chelsea defence, playing in multiple positions for them this season. Even at his age, he is still putting up impressive defensive numbers. With 4 tackles and interceptions per match, he is currently exceeding his tally of 3.7 from the 2017/18 season, while he is equal with what he managed last year. All of this is coming from within a Chelsea side who are more possession-based than ever, making this even more impressive. Considering that Azpilicueta started his career as a centre-back, he is a much more defensively-sound full-back than most. This could prove to be crucial in this game, and if he manages to augment the central defensive areas he could look to nullify the attacking threat of either Son or Moura.

As the deepest lying midfield player, Jorginho will also play an important defensive role. Under Lampard, Jorginho has become a much more defensively capable player, having really grown into a role at the heart of the Chelsea midfield. Like Azpilicueta, his defensive actions have been improved this year, as he is averaging 5 tackles and interceptions and per 90 this season, compared to 4.1 in the previous campaign. However, the aforementioned Dele Alli will undoubtedly give him problems. With the way that Alli plays, it is almost impossible to mark him, as he has the freedom to roam around the pitch. The approach that Jorginho and Lampard take to deal with this will be interesting, as it’s a question of whether or not Lampard wants Jorginho to man-mark the Englishman. Jorginho will also be crucial in defending the counter, and with the new-found defensive abilities that he has shown, he could be required to drop deeper in order to deal with Spurs’ attacking threat.

Injuries

At the moment, neither team is struggling too extensively through injuries, aside from a couple of minor problems for each side. Spurs are set to be missing just four players for this upcoming match, a number that looks positive when compared to recent seasons. In goal, Lloris is still struggling with an arm injury, with the return date yet to be verified. However, his understudy Gazzaniga has performed admirably over the last few games, and there hasn’t been a notable dropoff. Similar things can be said about the injuries to Ben Davies and Eric Lamela, who will both be missing until February, but have players who can fill their positions. The last injury issue that they are facing is to Tanguy Ndombele. Ndombele has started life in Tottenham well, and is clearly one of their most talented midfielders. However, even before his injury occurred, he was not Mourinho’s first choice option, as he has seemingly preferred a midfield pairing of Winks and Dier.

In Chelsea’s case, they seem to have finally moved past the injury crisis that has been hampering them for most of the season. With a number of key players returning to full fitness recently, long term absentee Ruben Loftus-Cheek is one of the few players who is out of action, and he is expected to return anytime soon. The only other first team injury that Chelsea are currently facing is to centre-back Fikayo Tomori. Although this wouldn’t be thought of as a massive injury, especially with Rudiger back in action, Chelsea have been having defensive issues lately. In the 3 matches that Tomori has missed, his side have conceded an alarming 5 goals. While Chelsea do have a number of capable players in Tomori’s position, the stats suggest that they might miss the youngster in this game. Despite Chelsea’s short injury list, they haven’t been performing well enough on the field, and they need to start making the most of their injury-free squad.

Summary & Prediction

With these sides so evenly matched at the moment, this London Derby is set to be one of the most entertaining in recent years, as we approach the midway point of the season. Neither side has looked completely assured over recent weeks, and while Spurs have shown the much stronger form, they are still in the formative weeks of Jose Mourinho’s reign. Although they have won 4 of their last 5, they have not yet been tested by a side of Chelsea’s ability. Chelsea currently sit within a Champions League spot, however; that could change after this match. Having played 17 matches each, the sides are separated by just 3 points coming into this game, illustrating the importance of the fixture. With Liverpool, Leicester and Manchester City all looking nailed on to finish in the Champions League positions, this match could have lasting implications on the race for a place among Europe’s elite.

With Spurs at home in this match, along with the form that they have displayed over recent weeks, they come into this match as favourites. Despite a slightly disappointing season for Tottenham thus far, their home form has been impressive. They have lost just 1 of the 8 home Premier League matches that they have played this season, as they have the 3rd best home record in the division, only bettered by Liverpool and Leicester. They are unbeaten in each of their last 6 Premier League home matches, including 2 wins under Mourinho. Chelsea though, have been solid on their travels lately. Despite having played a game more at home, Chelsea have gained more points when on the road, with 15 from a possible 24. They are easily one of the best away sides in the division, and they’ll test the Tottenham Stadium to the fullest. Interestingly, there have been 3 or more goals scored in each of Chelsea’s last 8 Premier League away games, and given the form of these sides, goals should be an expectation. For this reason, my final prediction is a 2-2 draw.