GW 18: Manchester City vs. Leicester

Manchester City vs. Leicester

While this match may have been disregarded as a one-team affair in recent seasons, a lot has changed in the Premier League over the past few months, which has altered the complexion of this fixture entirely. Although Liverpool remain the runaway leaders at the summit of the Premier League, Manchester City and Leicester sit in 3rd and 2nd respectively, proving the quality of this upcoming game. Also, despite the 10 point gap between Liverpool in 1st and Leicester in 2nd, both of these teams will remain hopeful of mounting a title challenge, making this game crucial for their separate ambitions. Like mentioned, this game is set to be a much more evenly matched contest than it has been in the past, as Leicester have made massive strides under Brendan Rodgers. While Leicester have lost 3 of their last 4 in this fixture, they did manage to beat City at the King Power Stadium last season, in a surprising 2-1 victory. Despite their relatively poor run against the Cityzens, Leicester will be confident coming into this match, as they know how much they have improved over a short period of time.

Manchester City

City have started their season in opposite style to Leicester, and they will have been disappointed with how they have played and the results that they have gained. Although sitting in 3rd is not a complete disaster, they have become accustomed to Premier League dominance under Guardiola, something that they have not delivered this term. They are currently 14 points off Liverpool, and with the Reds in superb form, it’s not likely that City will catch them any time soon. However, Pep’s men are in decent form after thumping Arsenal last weekend. They managed to crush the Gunners in a 3-0 victory, getting back to their winning ways yet again. They have shown levels of inconsistency though lately, having won just 3 of their last 6 matches, and they need to look to build on this most recent result.

Much of why City were able to win this game was down to Arsenal’s poor tactical set up. They played right into City’s hands, as they weren’t compact enough in midfield, while much of their attacking play was possession-based, rather than on the counter-attack. Leicester, however, should be able to pose a bigger problem for this City team. Leicester not only have form on their side, but they also have a more tactically intelligent and versatile manager at the helm, who should be able to spot City’s weaknesses. With the incredibly high line that City tend to employ, they are obviously vulnerable to counter-attacking scenarios. This has been a feature of many of their poor performances this season, most notably against Manchester United and Liverpool, and Leicester could catch them out if they’re not careful. They did look more secure against Arsenal though, keeping their first clean sheet in 7 matches.

Perhaps the main reason for this was their switch to a double-pivot, with two defensive midfielders instead of one. They played with more of a 4-2-3-1 formation in this last game, which not only improved their defensive unit, but also allowed Rodri to thrive. Rodri’s start to life in the Premier League will warrant mixed emotions, as while he has looked great individually, he hasn’t managed to fill the role of Fernandinho successfully. When playing as the sole defensive midfielder, Rodri and the rest of the City defence were easily caught out by chances on the break, as they lacked defensive cover to support them. With Gundogan alongside him though, he looked a much more confident player. While he still operated as the deepest midfielder, he was able to take more risks with his passing, and he wasn’t punished as thoroughly when caught out of position.

This new system also seemingly benefitted Kevin De Bruyne, who played in a much different role. With two players dropped deeper, De Bruyne operated with the freedom of the field, picking up far more advanced and dangerous positions. This new role led to 2 goals and 1 assist for the Belgian, who has been flying at the moment. In the Premier League this season, he has more assists than any other player with 10, while he has supplemented this with a superb 6 goals from midfield. De Bruyne’s creative abilities are immense as he is averaging 4 key passes per 90, making it clear to why this new system suited him. While Leicester’s midfield is clearly much stronger than than that of Arsenal’s, if De Bruyne is given this freedom again he’ll be able to find space in between Leicester’s lines. Overall, this 4-2-3-1 formation not only supplements City’s defensive unit with an extra man in midfield, but it also allows their star man Kevin De Bruyne to get on the ball more often, and in better, more threatening positions.

Leicester

While City are having to make big tactical changes in order to improve their results, high-flying Leicester just need to carry on in the same manner. After coming in midway through last season, Rodgers has had a monumental impact on this Leicester side, taking them from 9th last season to 2nd now. In just 17 matches, Leicester have already gained 39 points, which was 75% of their total from the 2018/19 campaign. Before drawing with Norwich last week, Leicester had gone on a run of 8 Premier League wins in a row, proving a consistency that no one expected from them. They have, however, been quite lucky to achieve what they have done, which is proven by their underlying numbers. At the moment, they rank 5th in the league for expected goals, and 4th for expected goals against.

In both of these categories, they place worse than Manchester City, proving that they’re fortunate to find themselves in 2nd. What they are good at though, is limiting their opponents to low quality chances. The average shot that Leicester concede has a weight of about 0.1 expected goals. When comparing this to City’s 0.13, it’s clear to see that Leicester don’t typically concede shots from dangerous areas. Much of this can be credited to the midfielders and full-backs, who rarely allow teams to challenge their central defenders. Particularly in midfield, Leicester have been thriving this campaign, as Rodgers has been able to find a perfect balance for his midfield trio. Although De Bruyne will obviously be able to pose a threat in this match, he won’t be able to drive through the midfield in the same way that he did against Arsenal.

Much of this is down to the superb defensive ability of Wilfried Ndidi, as he has been the reason for Leicester’s solid defensive numbers this campaign. With Ndidi at the base of midfield, he not only provides a defensive shield for the players behind him, but also allows Leicester’s attacking players to play with more freedom. Ndidi is currently averaging an incredible 7.4 tackles and interceptions per match, the best in the Premier League at the moment. This proves that he is one of the outstanding defensive players in the division, which will come in handy against a rampant attacking outfit. With Ndidi at the base of midfield, the aforementioned Kevin De Bruyne will find it much more challenging to operate in that central attacking area. Ndidi’s defensive abilities will also allow Leicester to play more progressively than most other teams are able to against the reigning Premier League champions.

In Brendan Rodgers’ typical system, Ndidi plays as part of a trio that includes James Maddison and Youri Tielemans, both of whom are more attacking midfielders. Ndidi helps to provide the balance in this midfield through his superb defensive contributions, which helps these other players to thrive in their preferred roles. In this upcoming match, James Maddison could be crucial to Leicester’s prospects. With the way that Manchester City have played this season, they have been exposed by attacking midfielders or strikers, who are able to find dangerous attacking positions on the counter-attack. This is exactly what Maddison thrives on. Although City’s switch to a 4-2-3-1 might supplement their defensive midfield area, they won’t be able to nullify the young Englishman entirely. Maddison is currently averaging 2.7 key passes per match, and his partnership with Vardy could prove to be lethal in this game.

Injuries

City’s failure to meet expectations this season has correlated strongly with the injury crisis that they are currently enduring, as they have been struggling to deal with the absences of a number of key players. Of course the biggest problems so far have come in defence for them, and particularly in the absence of Aymeric Laporte. Without his athleticism at the back, Manchester City have become more vulnerable to counter-attacks this season, as the aging Fernandinho and Otamendi have not been able to fill that hole. Stones has also had various stints out of action, and that is set to be the case yet again. After missing the match against Arsenal, it’s not likely that he returns before the new year, leaving Pep Guardiola with limited central defensive options against a clinical attacking side. David Silva is also a doubt still, however; he might not be the right player to use even if he were available. Finally, Sergio Aguero and Leroy Sane are both still suffering from long term injuries, which could have a substantial impact on City’s attacking play.

In Leicester’s case, they have been far more fortunate this season in this regard. In fact, since the start of the new season, they have had a total of 6 players who have started in every match for them, with a further 2 having only missed 1 game. This illustrates the level of consistency that Rodgers has been able to keep with his squad this season, and is perhaps one of the main reasons that they have been able to pass City thus far. At the moment, they don’t have a single first team player out through injury or suspension, even during this busy period in the Premier League. While other clubs are losing players at a rapid rate, Leicester remain one of the fittest teams in the league, which can perhaps be credited to their fitness team and their training routines. Another thing to consider when coming into this match, is the lack of European games that Leicester have to play compared to Manchester City, which will obviously give them a fitness advantage.

Summary & Prediction

Coming into this game, it’s surprisingly Leicester who seem to have the upper hand, something that no one would have expected before the start of the new campaign. Although City have the better underlying numbers, Leicester have found themselves 4 points in front of their upcoming opponents. Also, the tactical arrangement of this match seems to favour Leicester, given their tendency to perform well on the break. City have struggled against strong counter-attacking sides this campaign, notably in matches against Wolves, Liverpool and Manchester United; all of which they lost. Now, when coming up against another side like this, who happen to have an elite, on-form striker at their disposal, there are reasons for Pep Guardiola to be worried. They did, however, look more assured in their last match, and the change of system that they employed could come in handy here.

City will also have home advantage in this match, which could prove to be useful. Although City’s home record hasn’t been overly flattering this season, they won their home game against Leicester last year, while they lost the away fixture. This season though, they have collected just 16 points in 8 matches when at home, compared to 19 points in 9 matches on their travels. The Etihad has not been the fortress that City have needed it to be over recent weeks, and although Leicester are substantially weaker on the road, the Foxes will want to take their opportunity in a crucial away game. Personally, I believe these teams are incredibly well matched at the moment. While Leicester have been experiencing much stronger form, City’s underlying numbers tell a different story. Also, Leicester have struggled against the bigger sides this year. For these reasons, I’m predicting a 1-1 draw, with both teams falling further away from the already distant Liverpool side who sit at the top.