GW 17: Arsenal vs. Manchester City

Arsenal vs. Manchester City

This Premier League season has been one of disappointment for many sides, and the league table will be shocking to most, even at this stage of the campaign. Many of the historically elite sides still find themselves in poor positions, despite the halfway point rapidly approaching. Two of these clubs are Arsenal and Manchester City, who are set to face on matchweek 17. Currently, Manchester City sit in 3rd, while Arsenal are in 9th, having both experienced extraordinary downfalls from seasons prior. What's worse, neither of these teams have seen an improvement over the last few weeks, and their recent form suggests that they are actually on the decline. This makes this match more important than ever, as both sides need a strong result in order to turn things around and get their seasons back on track. In previous years, Manchester City have been dominant in this fixture, having won every Premier League game between them over the last two seasons. Now though, as they have fallen from the summit of the table, their Premier League omnipotence has seemingly come to an end, and this could reflect on their result this Sunday.

Arsenal

This has been one of Arsenal’s worst starts to a Premier League campaign in recent history, and at the moment, European football looks a huge ask for the Gunners. Their recent form has been horrendous, which has seen them drop away from the top 6 and into mid table mediocrity. Before their win in their last match, they had gone without a win in their previous 7 Premier League games. Within this period they sacked manager Unai Emery, but results haven’t seen a sharp improvement under interim boss Freddie Ljungberg. In the 3 Premier League matches that Arsenal have played under their new coach, they have gained just 4 points, having lost to Brighton and drawn with 19th place Norwich. While they managed to win in their last match against West Ham, the signs of a stable team are still nowhere to be seen, and Arsenal could well have appointed a new manager by the time they face Manchester City.

Ljungberg has though, brought back a more positive style of play to this Arsenal side, and his tactics might actually be suited to this upcoming game. With City in poor defensive form, Arsenal will feel that they have a chance in this game, especially with the attackers that they have at their disposal. In each of Ljungberg’s 3 matches in charge, he has used a 4-2-3-1 formation, while his side have played with attacking intent. Especially on the counter, his team have looked dangerous, as the pace and power of the frontline has led to a large amount of goalscoring chances from counter-attacking scenarios. Interestingly, Ljungberg’s system is similar to that of Manchester United’s. This obviously worked well for United against City, as they won 2-1 in quite a convincing performance, in which they were the deserved winners. While Ljungberg will obviously be weary of the massive defensive problems that his side have shown, he might be confident in scoring a couple on the break, and he could see his side pick up some vital points. 

As always, Aubameyang will be crucial to this Arsenal side, especially in this particular system. Aubameyang has scored 11 Premier League goals this season despite having a disjointed side around him, as he has continuously carried this Arsenal side through rough patches of form. Under Ljungberg, Aubameyang has finally been given a consistent role has the central striker, and it’s fair to say that he has excelled. With 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 3 games, Aubameyang is thriving in this counter-attacking set up. The attacking unit has had more freedom as a whole now that Emery is gone, and Aubameyang has looked better as he has more creative players behind him. In this match, Ljungberg shouldn’t shy away from the recent system that he has been employing, despite facing a more difficult side, as Aubameyang and the other attacking players could be the beneficiaries of a more fast-paced, counter-attacking style of play.

Obviously, this will cause some defensive problems against such a free-scoring Manchester City side; however, Arsenal’s best bet might be in making this match chaotic for both teams. While players like Ozil and Pepe don’t provide a huge amount of defensive cover, it’s worth including them for the sake of the attacking play. Pepe in particular has found his form recently, despite a rough start to the campaign. He is another player who is crucial to this counter-attacking system, as his pace and trickery is unrivalled in the Arsenal squad. He has proven himself as one of the best dribblers in the league this season, averaging an incredible 4.2 successful dribbles per 90. In this game, he can look to play a similar role to how Daniel James played against City, providing his team with a quick form of progression before laying it off to the more lethal finishers in the side.

Manchester City

This season, City have been well off their usual standards, and their position in the table will have shocked them. Over the past couple of Premier League seasons, Manchester City have experienced dominance over the rest of the league, having gained 199 points over the 2 previous campaigns. However, last season has proven to be a prelude to this current campaign, as while Liverpool tested the Cityzens in 2018/19, they have now overtaken Guardiola’s men. Although you should never count this City team out of a title race, they have now fallen 14 points behind the league leaders as well as 6 points behind Leicester City. Actually, no team has ever made up a 14 point gap in order to win the title in the history of the Premier League, and at the moment, things are looking dull for the men in sky blue.

Much of this has been down to their poor defensive displays up to this point. While they have remained the best attacking side in the league, with 13 more expected goals than the next best team, their defensive quality has experienced a massive downfall. They currently sit 4th by expected goals against, behind Manchester United, Liverpool and Leicester. Many will attribute this to the loss of a number of key players at the back; however, it also relates to the incredibly attacking system that Guardiola employs. Although this has always been the case, they are more vulnerable than ever with Rodri stepping in at defensive midfield, while teams are finally starting to realize how to counter their formation and gameplan. Particularly against a team like Arsenal, City now have to be weary of being hit on the break, as Arsenal will obviously be set up to do this.

However, Pep has not changed system all season, even after humiliating defeats, and despite their horrendous defensive form, you wouldn’t expect him to give in. This could cost his side yet again, but it will benefit particular members of the City squad. For example, Kevin De Bruyne has always thrived in this 4-3-3 formation, in which he has licence to roam forwards and into the wide areas as well. He has been the star man for City this season, and their creative powerhouse from central midfield. He is currently leading the league for assists with 9, while he has also scored 4 goals in what has been a renaissance of a season after he was injured for the majority of last campaign. Arsenal have been characterized by their poor midfield this season, with little to no defensive grit having been shown in that area, making this game perfect for De Bruyne. Along with his 4.4 key passes per 90, he has also been averaging 1.6 dribbles, and he could cause real damage by driving through the midfield.

Another player who will be crucial in this match, and who is a crucial part in this system, is Kyle Walker. Walker doesn’t always get the recognition he deserves, as he has been an integral part of Manchester City’s title winning side over the last couple of seasons. While he might be just past his prime, he is experiencing a decent season at the age of 29. At the moment, he is one of the few players with pace in the City backline, which is obviously crucial for a side who play so positively. This was shown in their last match against United, as Walker made 5 tackles and interceptions, only bettered by United right-back Aaron Wan-Bissaka in the match. In this game he was matched up against the excellent Marcus Rashford, but he handled him well, and was able to do so due to his physical attributes. It could end up being a similar story in this game, whether it be Aubameyang or Martinelli who plays on the left for Arsenal, and Walker’s pace at the back will be needed in order to increase City’s defensive security. 

Injuries

Both of these sides have struggled heavily with injuries this campaign, which is one of the main reasons that they have failed to achieve their respective goals. In Arsenal’s case, their ongoing injury crisis hasn’t let up over recent weeks, and they come into this game with a number of players expected to miss out. Defensively, Tierney is now out again after obtaining a shoulder injury in their match against West Ham, while Holding is out with a knee problem and Bellerin could also miss due to a hamstring injury. They also have a couple of problems in midfield, as both Xhaka and Ceballos are expected to miss this game, which will obviously have implications on how they control the match. Another thing to consider is the Europa League match that Arsenal played on Thursday, and how that could affect them. 

While Manchester City also played midweek, their game was on Wednesday compared to Thursday, meaning they’ve had an extra day to rest and prepare coming into this match. They are, however, no better than Arsenal in terms of injury issues. This is the first season during Guardiola’s reign as City boss in which they have really faced any major fitness concerns, and it has clearly had an affect on his side. The injuries keep piling up for the Cityzens, as along with long term absentees Laporte and Sane, a number of others have found themselves on the medical bed in recent weeks. This includes star striker Sergio Aguero who has now missed their last 3 Premier League games with a groin injury. Stones is also out of action now, for the second time this season, leaving City with limited options at the back. Finally, David Silva is a doubt for this game after obtaining a knock, but luckily it doesn’t seem like a long-term problem. While these players obviously have capable understudies to back them up, even a slight drop off in quality can be costly in such a demanding system.

Summary & Prediction

After positive summers for both of these teams, they haven't managed to live up to the billing at the start of this campaign, and have paid for this by dropping in the table. Not only has their quality dropped, but other teams outside of the historical top 6 have made big strides this year, overtaking teams who have found themselves near the summit of the table in years gone by. While teams like Tottenham and Manchester United have looked stronger in recent weeks, Arsenal and City have shown limited signs of improvement, and you feel that they each need a big game in order to turn their fortunes around. Quite frankly, neither team can afford to drop any more points, as their respective ambitions look well out of reach after just 16 matchweeks. As mentioned earlier, City are an enormous 14 points off of the top of the table, while Arsenal are 7 points off a much stronger Chelsea side who sit in 4th.

Although Arsenal do look like the far inferior side in this match, they will have their home supporters behind them. They have performed slightly better when at home this season, with 13 of their 22 points coming from matches at the Emirates. This equates to just about 60%, proving that this could act as an advantage for them. In all honesty, this match lacks some of the thrill and excitement that it has attracted over the past few seasons, due to it’s relative unimportance to the title race, and proceedings around the top of the table. With the losses that City have endured over recent weeks, along with the uninspiring defensive performances that they have mustered, this game could really go either way. Personally, I do believe that Arsenal will get something out of this match, and on the counter, they could prove to be quite threatening to City’s weakened backline. My final prediction is 2-2.