GW 15: Manchester United vs. Tottenham

Manchester United vs. Tottenham

As we move into December, the Premier League schedule is more packed than ever, and the first midweek set of fixtures of the season is bound to bring drama. Although the Merseyside derby is scheduled for Wednesday, the main attraction this gameweek could be between Manchester United and Spurs. These sides have both been struggling for form in the opening parts of this campaign, and they have found themselves much further down the table than they would have liked. Manchester United are currently languishing in 9th, while Spurs have actually improved recently and have found themselves in 5th. However, both teams are still quite some ways away from the top 4 finish that they would have been hoping for, and significant progress is needed if either team is to challenge that area. Over the past few seasons, this fixture has often been crucial to the sides involved, and while the clubs might not be performing at the same level, it is still a must-win game. While Manchester United have been the bigger club historically, Spurs have been a stronger proposition in recent years and this seems to be the case yet again. Over the last 5 Premier League meetings between the sides, Spurs have come out on top 3 times, and as their gaining a bit of momentum now, they’ll be looking to gain another positive result against the Red Devils.

Manchester United

United have seemingly been on a downward spiral ever since the departure of Sir Alex Ferguson, and this could end up being their worst season yet if they continue on the same trajectory. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer started is Manchester United managerial career well in the back-half of last season, but he has failed to deliver continuous success, and the positivity that United fans felt at the beginning of the campaign is long gone by now. Despite bedding in a healthy amount of youth talent, as well as improving United’s underlying statistics, they have failed to gain the results that are needed for a club of their stature. When looking at expected goals though, you can see that United have been somewhat unlucky. According to this metric, United have the 4th best attack in the league and actually the 2nd best defence, indicating that the chances that they are creating and conceding warrant a higher place in the table.

It’s in defence though where United will have to be most careful in this match. Under new manager Jose Mourinho, Spurs have proven to be a potent attacking outfit as he has rejuvenated some key players. Also, expected goals could be slightly misleading in United’s case, as they tend to limit opposition chances; however, the chances that they do concede come from dangerous scoring positions. Along with this, they have only played 3 of the historical “top 6” so far this season, which will have skewed the numbers in their favour. In a couple of their recent games, particularly against Sheffield United, Manchester United were easily exposed on the break, through one or two quick passes. This is exactly how this new-look Spurs team like to play, and considering Tottenham’s recent attacking displays, it’s probable that United will continue their 9 game run without a clean sheet in the Premier League.

One thing to notice in particular about Tottenham and their attack, is the role that Dele Alli has been given, and the presence that he has had in the squad. Under Mourinho, Alli has been afforded more freedom than ever before, as he has been playing as almost a second striker, just off Harry Kane, and this position makes it awkward for a defensive player to mark him. For United, you feel they need to reconfigure their shape in order to nullify his attacking presence. Considering Alli’s average position, between the backline and the midfielders, it might be necessary to add extra defensive cover just in front of the back four. With McTominay injured, the player most suited to this role in the United squad is probably Fred. Fred has found his place within this United squad yet again, and he is contributing heavily in defence, averaging 4.6 tackles and interceptions per 90. While his preferred role is not as a defensive midfielder, he could be dropped deeper in this match in order to limit Dele Alli’s attacking presence.

United’s backline will also have to cope with extra attacking pressure, as Spurs typically overload the central attacking areas. Players like Son and Moura love to drift centrally from the wide areas, which usually makes it more difficult for central defenders. This means that Harry Maguire will have to step up as a leader in the backline. Maguire has had a decent start his time at United after being signed for 80 million pounds in the summer, and has been one of the main reasons behind their solid defensive statistics. In a relatively young United backline, Maguire will have to take control in this game against an intricate Spurs attacking unit. Maguire also has a strong aerial presence, which should be useful in this match. In Spurs’ last game, they twice scored from long balls over the top, but with Maguire at the back, United will be less prone to this than other teams.

Tottenham

Tottenham have had one of their worst starts to a campaign in recent years, as they have fallen well below the standards that they have set for themselves over the past few seasons. They still find themselves in 5th though, and they have seemingly been rejuvenated after the arrival of Jose Mourinho as manager. In the space of two gameweeks, Spurs have jumped from 14th to 5th in the table. While this is perhaps more indicative of the low quality of teams outside of the top 4, it also highlights how quickly things can change in the Premier League, especially at this point in the season. Tottenham have now won each of their last 2 Premier League matches having previously been on a run of 5 games without a victory. This is exactly why Mourinho has been hired, and at the moment, he seems to be delivering the success that the club hierarchy is expecting.

While it’s yet to be seen if this is simply the new manager boost in effect, it’s quite possible that Mourinho will be able to make a big impact on this club. Under Mourinho, Spurs have employed a 4-2-3-1 formation in each of their 3 matches. In reality, the system that they have been using is very similar to the one that Pochetinho employed, with a few small twists when analyzing individual players. Despite a relative lack of change in tactics, there have been big improvements in terms of results. They have won both of their Premier League games with Mourinho at the helm, and their underlying numbers have been impressive. In these two games, they have accumulated an expected goals tally of 5.14, averaging 2.57 a match. When comparing this to the 1.16 that they were averaging before Mourinho, you can see what he has brought to their attack. While his side don’t typically average huge amounts of possession, they are incredibly effective when they get on the ball, and particularly on the counter-attack.

Like mentioned earlier, this has created a crucial role for Dele Alli, and one that the Englishmen has been thriving in. In his last 2 Premier League matches, Alli has scored 2 and got 1 assist, as he actually grabbed a brace in his last game against Bournemouth. One of the few noticeable changes that Mourinho has made so far is the repositioning of Alli, which has allowed him to step up as the key man. Alli has essentially been playing as a striker over his past couple of games, and when looking at his average position, you can see that he plays almost level with Harry Kane. He does have slightly more freedom than Kane though, and it’s his movement that has allowed players like Kane and Son to thrive recently. In Mourinho’s first game, against West Ham, Alli could be seen frequently making runs towards the ball in order to pick it up and lay it off for his teammates. Against Bournemouth though, he was more successful with runs in behind, which led to him scoring twice.

Another player who has benefitted hugely from Spurs’ new attacking style is Son. While Son’s role has not changed to a large extent, he is profiting from the movement around him, and particularly the role that Alli has played. With a more mobile force at attacking midfield, Son has had more freedom to come into central areas as he prefers to do. Also, his skillset is much more suited to a counter-attacking style of play than a possession-based system. With the pace and power that he brings on the break, he has already scored 1 goal and got 3 assists in the Premier League under Mourinho. Creatively, his numbers have improved massively over this two game period, as he has racked up 2.37 expected assists while averaging 3.5 key passes per match. At the moment, Jose Mourinho’s direct attacking style has encouraged a massive improvement amongst his attacking players, and they will be looking to put a relatively strong United backline to the test in their first big game under their new manager.

Injuries

Manchester United have been struggling with injuries for the whole season, which is one of the main reasons that they find themselves in such a poor position. They will continue to struggle in this game, and although their situation is getting better, their expected to be missing a few key players. The main problems facing them are in midfield, where they should be missing both Scott McTominay and Paul Pogba. Both of these players are currently suffering from ankle injuries that have kept them out for 2 and 7 Premier League games respectively. They are now, however, firmly on their way to recovery, and although it’s unlikely, they could return for this match. If either were to miss, it would harm them greatly. Without Pogba, they have struggled on the creative end of things, and their level of chance creation has dropped massively. In McTominay’s case, there has been a massive downgrade defensively, as United have conceded 5 goals in the 2 matches that he has been absent for.

Spurs are struggling less so; however, they will be missing a couple of players. Lloris is still out with an arm injury, but Gazzaniga has been in decent form, and they haven’t looked too much worse without their number one. Davies and Lamela are the only other players that will be absent for this game. Neither of these players have been too important this season, and you feel that Spurs will be able to cope with their absences. Saying this, Davies did play well in Spurs’ win over West Ham, and the other options at the club are a clear downgrade on the Welshmen. Mourinho doesn’t seem to be very fond of Rose either, as he chose Vertonghen over him at left-back in their last match, despite Vertinghen’s usual position being at the heart of the defence. Another thing to consider is the Champions League and the toll that that could have taken on the Spurs squad. While United do play in the Europa League, they can afford to rest more players in this competition, and this rotation could serve them well in this match.

Summary & Prediction

Neither of these typically top sides have been performing at the level that they would have been hoping for this season. Both of these teams are currently closer to last place than they are to frontrunners Liverpool, indicating the gulf in quality between the top 4 and the rest of the league. Jose Mourinho, formerly of Manchester United, now brings his new and improved Spurs side to Old Trafford, and while their recent form has looked strong, they face a tough task ahead of them. Despite United currently placing 9th in the table, they have seemed well-organized on Solskjaer and although they lack some passion and determination, they are well set up to face the bigger sides in the league. So far, United have played against three of the teams in the historical top 6, and they are yet to lose in these matches. This proves that they are a stronger side against teams who keep possession, and is perhaps indicative of their strengths on the counter. 

United will also be at home for this match, which could prove to be a big advantage. They have gained 12 from a possible 21 points when at home this season, which looks good when compared to the 6 that they have obtained when playing away. The Red Devils are also unbeaten in each of their last 5 home Premier League matches. Still, when looking at form, Spurs are strong favourites to win this match, especially with the recent attacking displays that they have been showing. Although United do like to play against the big teams, Spurs’ style of play is closer to a middling side, as they have preferred to counter-attack under Mourinho. For this reason, I’m predicting a 2-1 Spurs win, with Jose Mourinho returning to Old Trafford with a bang.