GW 14: Liverpool vs. Brighton

Liverpool vs. Brighton

With the Premier League continuously increasing in intensity as the season goes on, Liverpool vs. Brighton could prove to be a crucial fixture in regards to the title race. With the busy Christmas period rapidly approaching, Liverpool need to keep their unbeaten streak going if they are to stay clear of Manchester City and the other title contenders. Liverpool currently have an 8 point lead at the summit of the table, but they’ll know full well that their lead is far from secure. In their upcoming game, the prospect of an upset is possible, as they face a Brighton side who have looked confident this season. The Seagulls are sat in 12th at the moment, but it’s fair to say that they deserve slightly more than what they’ve gained in terms of results. Graham Potter has turned Brighton into an entertaining outfit, who have employed a positive style of football; something that many teams in the bottom half of the table shy away from. Brighton have definitely seen a massive improvement from their prior Premier League campaigns, in which they have finished in 15th, and more recently 17th. This improvement can also be seen when looking at their prior matches against Liverpool. Over the last two seasons, Brighton have lost all 4 of the Premier League matches that they have played against the Reds, having scored 1 and conceded 11 in this time period. 

Liverpool

Liverpool will, however, be expecting a victory despite Brighton’s drastic improvement. This is because they have been in excellent form as of late, with a superb record in the Premier League. Like mentioned, they sit top of the division at the moment, having won 12 of the 13 that they have played. They are also unbeaten, meaning they have missed out on just 2 points at this stage. The reason for this near-perfect record is apparent, as Klopp has built a passionate, winning team, who continuously force the results that they need no matter the situation. This Liverpool side have often been labeled as lucky, and while this is not entirely true, it can be justified in a number of circumstances. According to expected points, Liverpool have actually had a worse season than Manchester City thus far, indicating that their lead at the top should be much more narrow. However, the clinical ability of their front three and the workrate of the players around them has been enough to get them out of some worrying situations.

In this upcoming game, Liverpool will have more to worry about in defensive areas. This is because Brighton are undoubtedly a stronger side when attacking than when defending, and they have the potential to put real pressure on this Liverpool backline. Liverpool have had further defensive struggles this year than they did last season; however, they have still managed to establish a relatively consistent set of defensive performances, having not conceded more than 1 goal in a match this season. In this game, Liverpool’s best form of defence could come through offence. With Brighton’s possession dominant system, the Seagulls count on having the ball in order to create high quality chances. If Liverpool were to take this away from them, Brighton could find it difficult to assert their attacking dominance, and Liverpool would be able to take control of the game.

From the base of midfield, Wijnaldum could be crucial in employing this gameplan. With Fabinho out through suspension, Wijnaldum will have to make the step up, as well as make the positional switch to a deeper position. From the heart of Klopp’s system, Wijnaldum will obviously have a huge impact on how they control the game, and how they use their possession. Wijnaldum averages 45 passes per 90, which will need to be improved if he is to play in this new role. Fabinho has typically been making closer to 65 in league play, indicating the authority that he delivers from the defensive midfield area. Wijnaldum’s defensive abilities will also need to be refined, as playing in that central area is a crucial defensive position. With the formation that Brighton employ, they tend to have strong presence in central attacking areas, and the loss of Fabinho could be costly. However, Wijnaldum has proven to be an incredibly flexible and adaptive player, and you feel that he’ll be able to succeed in this temporary role, helping Liverpool to dominate possession in the process.

In a more advanced position, Firmino will perform a similar role. While Wijnldum will act as the center of Liverpool’s defensive play, Firmino does the same in the attack, orchestrating the frontline and pulling the strings from his false nine position. In this game, he has the opportunity to provide even further threat. Brighton’s midfield has been an area of relative weakness for them this season, as they tend to play without a defensive midfield player. With Firmino playing in that area, between the backline and the midfield players, you feel that he could have a big impact on the game. He is adept at dropping deeper to pick up the ball in space, and in this match, he could look to augment the midfield when required. Adding that extra man to the tip of the Liverpool midfield, will further Liverpool’s ability to keep possession, and you would expect the Reds to dominate the midfield area in this game.

Brighton

Brighton have had an interesting season thus far, with Graham Potter showing his potential as a Premier League level manager. While they are flawed in a number of areas, the early signs of an exciting side are there, and particularly in attack, they have the ability to hurt teams. Despite a strong period of form a few weeks ago, they have failed to gain points in their last couple of matches when facing some of the stronger sides in the division. In their last two matches, they have lost to Manchester United and Leicester, proving their weaknesses against the bigger clubs. This inability to deal with teams near the top end of the table, is largely due to their poor defensive attributes, as Potter is yet to find a balanced formation or tactical setup that works against high quality attacking teams. This can be seen when looking into their matches against Manchester United and Leicester, as they conceded a worrying 7.16 expected goals across these games.

This will, undoubtedly, not get any easier when facing this Liverpool side. With Brighton’s current form, a lot will need to be changed coming into this match in order to improve their defensive prospects. While a switch to a three at the back in their last match was anticipated to have been successful, they yet again suffered defensively, particularly on the break. Although Liverpool will be less prominent on the counter-attack than Leicester, Brighton need to prepare for a consistent bombardment of chances from the Liverpool offence. The most crucial thing for them perhaps, would be to add an out-and-out defensive midfield player. This would limit the creative threat of Firmino, while also leaving them less open to counter-attacking opportunities. Adding this midfield presence would allow more freedom amongst the forward players as well as the other midfielders, enabling Brighton to control possession with less threat of a fast break from their opponents.

While you do feel that this change would be more important from a tactical standpoint rather than in terms of personnel, the player in that holding midfield role will have to be someone with a strong defensive presence. The player most likely to drop into this position is Dale Stephens. Stephens has been a mainstay in Brighton’s midfield so far, while he is contributing more defensively than any other Brighton midfielder. He is currently averaging 4.7 tackles and interceptions per game, the most in the Brighton squad, and his defensive contributions prove that he could play deeper. As mentioned though, this change is much more of a tactical experiment. While a number of Brighton players could theoretically play in this role, Stephens’ defensive skill set best matches the position, and if this change were to be made, Stephens feels like the most natural selection for this role.

Another benefit of this change would be the freedom afforded to the offensive players, and in particular, Pascal Gross. Gross has yet again become the creative hub for this Brighton side after a relatively poor 2018/19 campaign. With him back at his best, you want him playing in his natural role. In Brighton’s system this year, Gross has largely been used as a right-winger come attacking midfielder. While this has suited him, a change in formation could allow him to play as a central midfielder, which would allow him to be more of a constant threat. Gross has been rejuvenated under Potter, with the German playmaker averaging 3.2 key passes per 90. In this match, you would expect Gross’ output to drop along with Brighton’s possession; however, he will always act as a threat in this Brighton side, particularly if he manages to find central positions, just in front of the Liverpool backline.

Injuries

Liverpool’s current injury situation is manageable; however, Klopp will be worried about missing some key personnel. In central defence, it’s Matip’s injury that will be most problematic, as he is still yet to recover from his knee problems. This will obviously have an impact on Liverpool’s defence, as Matip had made that spot next to Van Dijk his own in the early weeks of the season. Further up the field, Keita has a minor illness that caused him to miss Liverpool’s midweek Champions League fixture, but he should be able to return for this match. The other major problem facing Klopp’s men is the aforementioned Fabinho suspension, with the Brazilian having picked up 5 yellow cards this campaign. Another thing to consider is the Champions League fixtures that Liverpool have had to play, and the toll that that could have taken on some of their players. Having played their intense midweek fixture against Napoli, Klopp could choose to rest some key personnel on Saturday.

Brighton have also been going through some injury problems this season, but now, the squad seems much more complete. With a number of crucial players returning recently, Brighton suddenly look a much more dangerous prospect than they have been in weeks gone by. Izquierdo will miss this match due to a knee injury, while both Bernardo and Conolly are doubts for the game. While Bernardo is obviously the best left-back at the club, the other players are fairly replaceable, and none of these injuries should have a major impact on the match at hand. To further this positive situation, Dunk has now returned from his 1 match suspension while Webster should be fully fit for this game. Also, Trossard is finally beyond his multiple injury woes, and unless something happens shortly, he might now be able to put a solid run of fixtures together. Overall, Brighton’s injury situation has far improved over the past couple of days, and they could actually have an injury advantage over the home side. 

Summary & Prediction

Liverpool do come into this match as strong favorites, as they do in almost any fixture these days. However, they can’t afford to underestimate this Brighton side, especially given the close calls that they’ve had recently against some of the weaker sides in the division. Something that will fall in favour of Liverpool though, is Brighton’s possession based strategy. While Liverpool will ultimately look to dominate the game, as is their preferred method, you feel that Klopp’s men could benefit from counter-attacking scenarios, especially if Brighton refuse to change systems. This was shown when Brighton faced Manchester United, as they were continuously opened up by quick breaks from midfield. 

With the game being played at Anfield, Liverpool have yet another advantage on their side. Liverpool’s home record over the past few years has been outstanding, and the Reds are actually undefeated in their last 44 Premier League home matches. This is the 2nd longest home run in Premier League history, and while they are still some ways off the record, this consistency shows their omnipotence when playing at Anfield. Although Brighton have shown promising signs this season, it would be a miracle for a team of their status to achieve a result at such a menacing stadium, especially with the poor form that they’re in. While they could end up being a top ten side if things go well, this match seems out of their reach. I’m predicting a 2-1 Liverpool win, as the Reds will be looking to continue with their impressive start to the 2019/20 Premier League campaign.