GW 13: Manchester City vs. Chelsea

Manchester City vs. Chelsea

The Premier League continues to provide excitement, and after a crucial gameweek 12, we head into the next gameweek with an entirely different complexion surrounding the league table. This is, of course, coming after a season defining result between Liverpool and Manchester City, and with Liverpool now 8 points clear at the top of the table, they seem to have one hand on the Premier League trophy. Because of this, even more emphasis will be placed on Manchester City’s upcoming clash with Chelsea. Both of these sides are among the best in the Premier League, with Chelsea actually surpassing City after the latest round of fixtures. 

The Blues, under Frank Lampard, have seemingly been rejuvenated, and while you wouldn’t expect them to challenge for the title, they seem to be top 4 quality at a minimum. This makes this match crucial for Guardiola and his men. The defending champions are now 9 points off the summit of the Premier League table, a position that we’re not used to seeing them in, and they can’t afford to drop any further if they want to mount a serious title challenge. Chelsea have given Manchester City some problems in the past as well, having beat them 2-0 in the Premier League last year. This did, however, come alongside a 6-0 Manchester City thrashing later in the year, and the Cityzens will be looking to accomplish a similar result here in order to gain back some momentum.

Manchester City

While Manchester City’s results have regressed significantly at the start of this year, their underlying numbers have stayed strong, suggesting that they have been unlucky to face this drop in form. They currently sit in 4th place with 3 losses already from their first 12 games. By contrast, Liverpool are yet to lose this season, while Chelsea have lost just twice. A different story can be seen though when looking deeper into their performances. City have underperformed compared to their expected goals, having scored 35 when this is predicted at 37.58. Along with this, they have a far better expected goals score than any of their rivals, indicating that their attack is still operating at the highest level. Things have been slightly more worrying defensively though, and this has been seen in each of the three losses that they have suffered this campaign.

In their upcoming game, this poor defensive form will definitely pose a problem, as Chelsea are the second best attacking side in the league according to expected goals. Guardiola attempted to play with a slightly more defensive system against Liverpool, employing two defence-minded midfielders, yet his side failed to keep a clean sheet once more. They ultimately conceded 3 in this game, while Liverpool were consistently able to cut through City on the break. Manchester City have typically been weaker in central areas when defending this season, but in this match, Liverpool were able to expose them in the wide areas, through their full-backs. Under Lampard, Chelsea have built a well-rounded attacking unit, and the Blues could look to both cut through the middle and expose the wide areas. Also, Chelsea are like Liverpool in that they typically dominate the ball in league play, but when coming up against City you expect them to be dangerous on the break.

This could push City towards a slight change in tactics in order to add more bodies to the defence. One thing that Guardiola could look to do, is bring Fernandinho back into his preferred midfield role. This way, he can provide more defensive cover, while his tactical intelligence is clearly more useful when he is played in midfield. A switch to a back three is also an interesting prospect. A back three could provide more defensive cover for the attacking players, while the center backs would be able to step out with less risk. Fernandinho is usually quite an aggressive defensive player, which often means he gets caught out, but with two other center backs behind him, he can afford to step out of the defensive line. This system would also allow the full-backs to get into more advanced areas of the pitch, and although they might have to sacrifice their wingers for an extra defender, the wing-backs could look to provide the wide threat.

Another advantage to the three at the back, is the potential for playing with two up front in a 3-1-4-2. Guardiola has been flirting with this idea for some time now, and while Jesus and Aguero have had interludes together; very rarely have they been started in the same match. Chelsea have looked weak in central defensive areas this season, and City could look to take advantage of this by overloading in that area. Although Tomori and Zouma have had strong moments, they are error prone and in Tomori’s case inexperienced, and they would undoubtedly have trouble when up against two world-class frontmen. While a 3-1-4-2 is relatively untested by Guardiola, their recent run of results warrants reason for a change. This system allows for stronger defensive cover, while it also gives City the opportunity to press through the center against a mistake ridden backline.

Chelsea

 While defensively Chelsea might not be the best, Frank Lampard has turned his young squad into an incredibly well-balanced side, who have proven themselves through their impressive results. Despite a discouraging summer, Chelsea have proven their doubters wrong, and have brought a positive feeling back to Stamford Bridge. They have not only played exciting football, but they have also shown their form in their recent run of results. Chelsea have now won each of their last 6 Premier League matches, with the longest current winning streak in the division. On expected goals, Manchester City are clearly a better side than Chelsea; however, Chelsea have far exceeded Leicester in this area and are deservant of their spot in 3rd place. 

The positivity around the club is something that hasn’t been seen for a long time, and it’s easy to see why fans are excited, due to the attacking playing style as well as the amount of minutes that youth players are getting. This is, however, slightly worrying for this match, as the lack of experience and caution within the side could leave them open against City. One thing to worry about is their attacking formation. Over the past few games, they have largely used a 4-2-4 formation, especially as they have faced a number of weaker sides. You wouldn’t expect this to work against a more high quality team though. In this system, Mount has been playing as a second striker almost, and Lampard should consider replacing him with a more box-to-box midfield option. 

Kovacic could be the perfect player to play in this role, and while he has been playing in a slightly deeper position up to this point, he is a well-rounded player who could adapt his game. If Mount is moved to the wing, or removed from the starting eleven entirely, Lampard will need a player who can progress his side while also dropping in to do defensive work. Kovacic has been immense this season, and like many of the Chelsea players, has found his role in this current setup. Playing in a two alongside Jorginho, he is averaging 3.6 tackles and interceptions per 90, as well as a superb 81 passes. Along with this, he has been key to his sides progression, averaging 3.3 dribbles per 90. Although Lampard might want to continue with the system that has brought him success over the last few matches, Kovacic’s well-rounded nature gives him the ability to change the tactics if a more defensive playing style is desired.

A potential switch of formation also opens up the possibility of bringing Kante back into the side. Although Kante played the full 90 in Chelsea’s last match, his injuries at the beginning of the year have meant that he has missed out on a lot of playing time. Against a team like Manchester City, Kante’s defensive abilities and individual quality will obviously make him an important player. With the quality that City have in midfield, it’s important that Chelsea employ a midfielder with a defensive presence. Jorginho and Kovacic have both been solid on the defensive end, but neither can match the Frenchman's 5.3 tackles and interceptions per 90. Along with this, both Kovacic and Kante are specialists at driving a team forwards from midfield, and on the break, it would be useful to have both of them in the squad. 

Injuries

One of the main reasons behind City’s recent lack of form is their poor injury run at the start of this season, which is set to continue in this match and beyond. Although they have always been touted as one of the deepest squads in the world, their depth has been tested in a number of areas following the loss of some key players. Laporte, Zinchenko and Sane have all been suffering from long term injuries, and Ederson has been added to this list recently, with the muscle injury he picked up against Atalanta. He too is set to be absent from this match, which will obviously cause huge problems for City, as Claudio Bravo is incredibly error-prone in goal. To add insult to injury, Bernardo Silva is also set to miss out on this game, as he faces a one match ban for a controversial social media post. While a number of players have returned for City in recent weeks, this constant period of poor fitness is greatly affecting the Cityzens and their challenge for the title. 

This is meant that Chelsea have had the opportunity to sneak into 3rd place, 1 point ahead of City. However, they too have had their injury problems this season and they could be missing some big players in this game. Rudiger is obviously still out, and has been for large parts of the season while Barkley and Pulisic have also picked up issues recently. While Barkley is not set to return for this match, it’s quite likely that Pulisic could recover in time, especially given the week long international break between gameweeks. This is definitely something to consider when looking at the current injury lists, as it’s quite possible that players from both teams have time to recover before their next club game. Also, there is the possibility that more players injure themselves when playing for their national teams, and this is something to keep an eye on over the coming days. While Chelsea have the slight edge over their upcoming opponents at this stage, this could well change by November 23rd.

Summary

Chelsea, however, are also far bettering City in terms of their recent form. Over the past few seasons, City have always been heavy favorites in this fixture, but now, Chelsea will be looking to give them a run for their money under Lampard. Although this will clearly be one of their toughest tasks of this season, they are currently playing without fear, while they have performed well against teams such as Liverpool and Ajax already this season. They do, however, have to travel to the Etihad for this match. This looks like far less of a problem than one might expect though. This is because Chelsea have the second best away record in the league this season, having gained 15 points from a possible 18 on the road. Along with this, they haven’t lost a Premier League away game since matchweek 1 of this Premier League season. City also look far from invincible at home. This is the first time in a while that this has been the case, as they have won just 4 of their opening 6 home fixtures, really indicating their recent fall from grace. While Chelsea are by no means favorites to win this game, the feeling around the club is much stronger at the moment, while they are the side in form coming into this crucial fixture. Saying this, City will have a chance to regenerate during the international break, and you feel that they’ll be able to gain their momentum when coming back into league play. For this reason, I’m predicting a narrow 2-1 City win, getting them back on track to challenge Liverpool.