GW 13: Brighton vs. Leicester

Brighton vs. Leicester

With the Premier League set to return to our screens after the latest set of international games, we have another gameweek full of elite fixtures to enjoy. Although it isn’t likely to steal the headlines, Brighton vs. Leicester could turn out to be an interesting game on Saturday. Both of these teams have made substantial improvements from last season, while they both have exciting, progressive managers. While this improvement is far more apparent in Leicester’s case, with the Foxes currently in 2nd place, Brighton have moved from 17th to 11th since last season, and Potter looks to be working well with his current squad. 

These sides have only ever played each other 4 times in the Premier League, and the results have swayed heavily in Leicester’s favour. Leicester have never been beaten in this fixture, while they have won 3 of the 4 matches between the sides. However, although Leicester are looking great this year, these sides are closer than ever when looking at the underlying numbers, and Brighton will be looking to improve their fortunes in this match. Also, like Leicester, Brighton are incorporating youth into their squad frequently, and with a good feel around the club, they might be able to gain a positive result in this match.

Brighton

While results have just recently started to improve for Brighton, Potter’s philosophy has always been clear, and the performances have started to look more promising now that his side have been able to understand and implement his system. They’ve now won 3 of their last 5 Premier League matches, having gained 9 of their total of 15 points from this period. They have often struggled against the bigger sides though, due to their poor defensive record. This was highlighted in their last match, as they lost 3-1 to Manchester United. It can also be seen when looking at expected goals as they have the 5th worse defence in the league according to this metric. On the other hand, they have a fluid attacking system, having scored 15 so far this year. Expected goals estimates that this should be even higher, and they actually rank 6th in the league in terms of expected goals for. 

Coming into this match, they will need to be weary of Leicester’s clinical attacking unit. With the amount of high-quality chances that they concede, especially against the bigger clubs, Brighton’s defensive output will need to be improved. Over their last few games, Brighton have been employing a 4-2-2-2 formation that leaves them with little defensive cover. When using this formation, Brighton lack width, and therefore the full-backs are often forced into advanced positions which can leave them exposed. Along with this, the attacking midfield players don’t tend to offer much defensive support, which can leave them short-handed at the back. While they’ll want to continue with their attacking style of play and possession based football, they need a more defensive system to base their play around. This could involve switching back to the three at the back formation that they started the season with, in order to allow their full-backs to step forward with less risk. This also puts less pressure on the attacking players to carry out their defensive duties.

A switch to a three at the back would, however, require more output from Brighton’s attacking players. Luckily for Potter, Brighton have a number of players who have been exceeding expectations in forward areas. Leandro Trossard has been at the forefront of this, as after signing for Brighton in the summer, he has looked superb when on the field. However, his career in England has been hampered by injuries so far. In the limited minutes that he has played, he has been averaging an immense 0.86 expected goals and assists per 90, putting him amongst the elite attackers in the league. Although there are rumours that he has picked up a minor groin injury, he should be able to recover throughout the international break. His individual skill and quality will undoubtedly be a threat to Leicester in this match, as it should be against many sides this season. Also, if a more defensive system is used, he will have more freedom to attack, with less defensive responsibilities burdening is outcome.

Another new player in the Brighton frontline who has been impressive is Neal Maupay. Maupay arrived from Brentford in the summer, and like Trossard, is proving his worth. While Maupay might not be as exciting as Trossard, he is an incredibly efficient striker. He has been the main reason for Brighton’s impressive underlying stats, as he alone has managed 5.56 expected goals, the 7th most in the entire division. Unluckily for Brighton, only Marcus Rashford has underperformed on his expected goals more than Maupay when looking at the top 10. This is because Maupay has only scored 4 goals this campaign. However, while he might not be the strongest finisher, his positioning and ability to find high-quality chances mean his goal scoring tally should improve. He is averaging a superb 3.8 shots per 90 in the Premier League, proving his usefulness as a striker in this Potter side. With players such as Trossard and Gross behind him, he could prove to be a danger to a defence even of Leicester’s quality.

Leicester

Leicester are defying all odds this season, and at the moment they sit in 2nd, behind only Liverpool. They have had their best ever start to a Premier League season with 26 points so far, even surpassing their famous 15/16 campaign in which they won the title. This Leicester side look more complete than ever, and their consistent run of recent results shows this. After losing to Liverpool on gameweek 8, they have won in each of their subsequent 4 matches, including victories over Arsenal and Burnley, as well as a 9-0 thrashing of Southampton. Their underlying numbers tell a different story though. While they have scored the second most goals in the division with 29, expected goals has this at 15.66. This ranks 14th in the league, and they are currently overperforming on expected goals more so than anyone else in Europe’s top 5 leagues.

While the results that they have gained will be incredibly encouraging, Brendan Rodgers will be aware of this slight issue with chance creation. What will be promising though, is the incredible defensive performances that Leicester have been putting up. By expected goals, Leicester have the 4th best defence in the league, and when coming up against a team like Brighton, this becomes even more crucial. Although most teams would have to pay far more attention to Brighton’s dangerous frontline, Leicester have more freedom in a fixture like this due to the individual quality of the players in their defensive unit. This strong defensive base has allowed Leicester to win games despite not creating many opportunities. In this match, this becomes even more important, and they’ll need to continue with this superb form.

Perhaps the most important player to Leicester’s defensive solidity is Wilfiried Ndidi. However, he is not part of the backline and rather sits in front of the defence, playing as a defensive midfielder. Ndidi has been one of the outstanding defensive midfielders in Europe this year, and his defensive contribution to Leicester is crucial. He is currently averaging 8.8 tackles and interceptions in the Premier League, and this immense defensive output balances Leicester’s midfield and allows for players like Maddison and Tielemans to perform more attacking roles. In this match, midfield is an area in which Leicester can take advantage of Brighton, as their opponents lack a proper defensive presence in the middle of the park. If Ndidi is able to control things at the base of Leicester’s midfield, Maddison and Tielemans will have more freedom to roam forwards and cause problems on the break. In Brighton’s last game, this was clearly seen, as Pereira was able to continuously run through the middle for Manchester United. Leicester midfielders, particularly James Maddison, could look to replicate this.

Another defensive player who has stepped up for Leicester this season is Çağlar Söyüncü. After the loss of Harry Maguire, Söyüncü has stepped into this squad brilliantly, and the side has actually seen a defensive improvement with him at the back. Although he is just 23, he already looks like an experienced defender, and is clearly capable of a starting role in one of England’s best sides. At centre-back, he is making 3.8 tackles and interceptions per 90, which is fairly decent for a player playing in a possession heavy side. However, the main advantage of having Söyüncü at the back is his ability on the ball. In the Premier League is averaging a superb 70 passes per game, with an 87.8% pass accuracy. Also, he has made more passes in his own half than any other player in the league this season, proving his composure and confidence on the ball. This helps Leicester to keep possession and build up play, and against a side like Brighton, keeping the majority of the ball will heavily advantage Leicester.

Injuries

Leicester also have a massive advantage in terms of injuries at the moment, with Brighton struggling in this regard. Brighton have had problems with injuries all season, and although some of these issues have died down over the past couple of weeks, Potter is still missing a few key players. Duffy has returned from injury and has played in the last few games, but now, Webster has gone out with an ankle problem. Along with this, both Bernardo and Izquierdo are still suffering from long term problems, meaning they won’t be featuring in this match. Perhaps even more worryingly, both Trossard and Conolly have picked up minor groin issues before this international break, and while they are likely to return quickly, it’s possible that they miss out here. Finally, Lewis Dunk is suspended having picked up 5 yellow cards this season. This is possibly the most detrimental of all the injuries, as Brighton now have limited options at center-backs, while Dunk has been enjoying a good season. 

For Leicester on the other hand, their squad fitness has been flawless throughout the season so far. This has been what has allowed them to thrive amongst the top sides in the division, as Rodgers has consistently been able to use his preferred starting eleven. With teams like Arsenal, Spurs and Manchester United often facing injury struggles, Leicester have been able to surpass these sides by gaining stable and reliable results. Also, they aren’t in the Europa League are Champions League like many of these sides are, meaning they have more time to rest and regenerate in between matches. For this upcoming game, there is only one player in their senior squad who could miss out. This is Jonny Evans who has recently obtained an illness. However, given the week long international break, he should be able to recover in time from this minor issue. This leaves Leicester with a full squad coming into this game, providing that none of their players obtain injuries while on international duty.

Summary

This is just one of the many advantages that Leicester seem to have when looking towards this match. When analyzing this fixture briefly, Leicester look the far better team in many regards; however, the underlying numbers point to a much stronger Brighton side than one may think. Potter’s work this season has largely gone under the radar, as Brighton have gone from relegation candidates last year to top ten contenders during this current campaign. Surprisingly, Brighton have the 7th highest average possession stats in the division, which really encapsulates the style that they have started to play. While they lack quality in certain areas, and are particularly naive in defence, they look like the sort of team who could at least challenge a side like Leicester. Also, Brighton are playing at home which will be a massive advantage for them. When playing at the Amex, Brighton have lost just once this season, while they have won each of their last 3 in front of their home fans. Furthermore, Leicester haven’t been a convincing away side, with both of their league losses this year coming when playing away. Saying this, Leicester are still strong favorites to win. Although their underlying numbers are poor, they continue to prove themselves as an incredibly clinical side in attacking areas. Brighton have a leaky backline, and a relatively passive midfield, and with injuries to key defensive personnel it doesn’t look like they’ll be able to obtain a result. For this reason, I’m predicting a 2-1 Leicester win, but don’t count Brighton out of this match.