GW 12: Liverpool vs. Manchester City

Liverpool vs. Manchester City

This weekend, on gameweek 12 of the 2019/20 Premier League season, the whole world will be watching on as Liverpool play Manchester City in a season defining fixture. At the moment, this is perhaps the greatest game in club football, between two of the best sides the Premier League has ever seen. Liverpool currently sit 6 points ahead of the defending champions, at the summit of the Premier League table, as the Reds have upped their game even further to surpass the quality of the Cityzens. This head start, however, is no guarantee of what is to come for the rest of the season, and if City were to obtain a result here, the complexion of the title race would be altered entirely. This is exactly what happened last year, when Liverpool had a substantial 7 point lead near Christmas time. Then, when these teams played in January, Manchester City won 2-1 to turn their fortunes around, eventually coming back to lift their second successive Premier League title. At Anfield earlier in the year, however, the game ended in a 0-0 draw. Given the improvement of this Liverpool side since last season, they will definitely want to push for a better result in this match; so that they can keep their lead over their title rivals.

Liverpool

Liverpool have started this season tremendously, which is shown by their lead at the top of the table. They have won an astounding 10 of their 11 games, and are yet to be beaten this season. Like any team who are top of a league, luck has played some part in them getting there. While they have scored 25 goals in league play, expected goals indicates that this should be closer to 23. Along with this, they are overperforming on expected goals against, having conceded 9 when this tally was predicted at 10.26. This shows that Liverpool might actually have regressed since last season in a number of ways, yet their ability to continuously obtain impressive results will be seen as a massive positive.

Manchester City have far exceeded Liverpool this season in terms of expected goals, which will obviously be a worry for Klopp, and when facing one of the best sides in the world, Liverpool’s tactics will need to face some reconstruction. Given the slight defensive issues that Liverpool have been having recently, Klopp will look to set up a more conservative side. This may include dropping the full-backs into deeper positions, while if they do go forward, the center midfield players will have to take on more defensive positions. Although Klopp won’t want to alter his stunning attacking system, he will be aware of City’s pace on the counter attack, and will want to limit their opportunities of getting in behind the full-backs like other teams have this year. Along with this, Liverpool will have to be ready to give up much more possession than they are used to. This might suit them though, as it gives them a chance to rely on their fantastic attackers on the break.

In a game of such quality, Firmino will obviously have a crucial role, as both an attacking force as well as a defensive organizer. Firmino has matured in every aspect of his game this year, and will be required to showcase his best form in this match. As an offensive player, he could be instrumental in Liverpool’s potential counter-attacking style of play. When he drops deep into an attacking midfield role, he can look to become the link between Liverpool’s midfield and attack. City have operated with an incredibly attacking midfield line this year, meaning they often struggle for defensive support in that area, and Firmino can drop into that space in order to instigate attacks. Firmino is also the spearhead of Liverpool’s dramatic pressing style. Although they have reduced their pressing considerably in league play, it is a necessary skill when facing an elite side, and Firmino is one of the best pressing forwards in the world.

Another defensive presence in the Liverpool squad who has encapsulated Liverpool’s style of play this season is Fabinho. The Brazilian at the base of midfield is getting better with every game he plays, having become a regular fixture in the Reds’ midfield. While in the 17/18 season, Liverpool were characterized by their high pressing and fast counter-attacking, they have transitioned to a more balanced side, who aim to keep possession and break teams down. This step up has been largely down to Fabinho. This is because his defensive presence allows for the full-backs to move into advanced areas, which is a key component in Klopp’s attacking gameplan. Liverpool will obviously have to push forwards at some points, meaning the full-backs will be dragged up the pitch, and Fabinho could be crucial in stopping Manchester City’s extraordinary counter-attacks.

Manchester City

Manchester City have not looked their usual selves when coming into this campaign, and although they are still putting up the numbers of champions, their results have regressed significantly. Like mentioned earlier, they currently sit in 2nd place, 6 points off Liverpool, which for them is unacceptable. However, unlike Liverpool, they have actually been underperforming compared to their expected goals. Their attack has been incredible yet again this year, and while they have scored 34 goals (the most in the division), expected goals predicts that this should be 36.10. City’s chance creation is obviously unrivalled in the league, as it has been during the entirety of the Guardiola era, but it’s their defensive solidity that has slipped this year. They have the 4th best defensive record in the league, having conceded 10 goals, but expected goals says that this should be closer to 12, highlighting some of their defensive frailties.

While this is by no means a poor defensive record, it is unusual to see a Manchester City side ranking anything but 1st. Much of this defensive weakness has come from their susceptibility to conceding counter-attacking goals. This means that they will need to rearrange both their offensive and defensive shape when coming up against Liverpool. City typically load the box with as many as five attackers at a time, all of whom take turns checking towards the ball to help keep possession. In this match though, Pep will need to enforce a stricter policy with his midfield players, ensuring that he has cover defensively in a more balanced system. With Liverpool’s lighting paced counter-attacks, City will definitely want a couple of players filling the midfield area when Liverpool gain back possession.

Due to the injuries in the squad though, this becomes a relatively difficult task for Guardiola. With Fernandinho likely operating in a central defensive role, this leaves Gundogan as the only designated central midfield player in the squad. Gundogan will very likely play as the most defensive midfielder, and Guardiola could look to bring Bernardo Silva into the position just in front of him. Bernardo Silva has played various positions over the last couple of seasons, and while he might be preferred on the wing, he offers a surprising amount of defensive work when employed in the center. This season in the Premier League, Silva is making 3 tackles and interceptions per 90. This is incredibly impressive when considering both the possession that City typically have, as well as the fact that Silva has largely played on the wing, and in more advanced areas. While it’s not the perfect solution, Silva could be used in a double pivot with Gundogan, playing slightly in advance of the German midfielder in order to limit Liverpool’s threat on the counter and provide an extra body in the center of the field.

This could give De Bruyne a freer role as an attacking midfielder. De Bruyne is clearly one of the best creative passers in the world, and after a season plagued with injuries he seems to be back at his best. In 9 starts, the Belgian has racked up a superb 9 assists as well as 2 goals, proving to be one of the most dangerous players in the City side. He averages an immense 4 key passes per 90, and in this game his creative ability will be necessary in the City attack. If Pep does choose to play with a more defensive midfield lineup, more pressure will be placed on De Bruyne to lay on chances for the forwards. It does, however, mean that he can focus on his offensive duties rather than defensive tasks. De Bruyne will also be crucial on the counter-attack as he can look to play his teammates through with his range of passing. With the form he’s in, you feel that De Bruyne could unlock any defence he plays against, including this solid Liverpool backline.

Injuries

Liverpool are currently undergoing some minor injury issues, as they are slightly worse off than they were at the start of the season. They have had a flawless fitness record up to this point but recently, Matip has found himself on the sidelines. The central defender has obtained a knee injury that could see him miss up to a month and a half, and given the form that he was in, this is a big loss for the Reds. Matip has been instrumental in Liverpool’s strong start to the season, as he has become one of the most reliable and consistent defenders in the league. Although Liverpool have decent replacements in the likes of Joe Gomez and Dejan Lovren, Matip’s defensive security will definitely be missed against such a dangerous side.

Luckily for Liverpool, Manchester City have been enduring far worse injury issues this year. In defence, Laporte is still missing due to a long term injury, while Zinchenko has been out for the past few weeks with a knee problem that will continue till December. Rodri, who has also been forced to play in defence at times, will also miss this game through a hamstring problem, limiting City’s options in midfield. David Silva is also doubtful for this game, and his muscle injury will most likely see him miss out. When you add Sane to this list, who has been out since the start of the season, you can see that Manchester City are going through a minor injury crisis. This has clearly weakened them in the early stages of this campaign, and when facing their biggest challenge of the season, this could cost them dearly.

Summary

Perhaps the most anticipated match in all of football at the moment, it’s easy to see why, as this fixture could essentially decide the outcome of the title race, just 12 gameweeks in. If Liverpool were to win, they would extend their advantage over City to 9 points, and with more confidence you would bet on them to bring the title home. If City were to win though, the dynamic would be completely different, as they will have narrowed the gap to just 3 points and with the momentum from a result like that, you would expect them to complete the comeback. However, this match is to be played at Anfield, which will obviously have a huge impact on the proceedings. Liverpool are remarkably undefeated in each of their last 43 home matches; the 2nd longest run in Premier League history. Along with this, Liverpool have won each of their 5 home matches this season, having scored almost 3 goals a game during this period. Anfield is perhaps the strongest fortress in world football at the moment, but if any team were to break through it would be Pep Guardiola’s City. Saying this, City have won only 1 Premier League game at Anfield in their history, and given some of their recent woes it will be difficult to get a result here. With their poor injury record, as well as their apparent defensive issues, it seems like Liverpool might just edge it. For that reason, I’m predicting a 2-1 Liverpool win, a result that could see them go on to win their first ever Premier League title.