GW 12: Leicester vs. Arsenal

Leicester vs. Arsenal

The drama and excitement is really starting to build around this Premier League season, and after 11 matchweeks, the table still includes many surprises. One team who have shocked many this campaign is Leicester, and in the upcoming gameweek they face another big side in Arsenal. Both of these teams are right around the top of the table with Leicester incredibly in 3rd, while Arsenal have dropped to 5th after some poor recent form. While the top two in the Premier League is fairly settled, the Champions League and Europa League spots are very much up for grabs, and these two teams will be among those fighting to finish in that sort of area. Saying that, Leicester are actually in touching distance of the top two, as at the moment they sit just 2 points behind Manchester City. Leicester’s improvement has been apparent under Brendan Rodgers, and this can be seen when looking back at Leicester’s last matches against Arsenal. When the sides faced for the first time last season, Arsenal managed a 3-1 home win, but in the reverse fixture, after Rodgers has been appointed, Leicester achieved a great 3-0 victory. This last match came towards the end of last season, and it’s been a continuous upwards spiral for the Foxes since then.

Leicester

Now, having been under Rodgers’ stewardship for a healthy period of time, the squad has gelled even further, while the organization and industry has improved massively. While Rodgers has been known as an attacking coach at his previous jobs, at Leicester he has adopted a more defensive gameplan, and so far his side are executing it to perfection. They have lost just 2 games this campaign, while they have collected 23 points out of a possible 33. This has largely been down to their solid defence, and although they are overperforming in some areas, they have still been incredibly impressive. Expected goals shows that they have been lucky though, particularly in attack. While they have scored an outstanding 27 goals, expected goals indicates this should be just 14.29, the 13th best in the division.

Many people have seen Leicester as a strong attacking side this year; however, this is largely due to the thrashings that they have given to Southampton and Newcastle. In both these games, they were fortunate to have scored as many as they did, and this has been a trend across most of their matches. This indicates that they are a clinical side, but perhaps they need to start creating more chances. While Arsenal are by no means a strong defensive side, Leicester can’t afford to rely on these low value chances forever. Given the quality of Leicester’s midfield, this really shouldn’t be a problem for the Foxes, and maybe with some slight manipulation, they can look to get even more creativity out of their central players. Against Arsenal, their midfield should be able to thrive, as the Gunners are often exposed in this area.

This will provide a crucial role for James Maddison, who is having another great season as an attacking midfielder. With the way Arsenal are playing at the moment, they are incredibly passive in midfield, making it easy to drive through the center of the park with relative freedom. This was seen when Arsenal played Wolves last week, as Diogo Jota was continuously able to saunter through the heart of Arsenal’s squad. Maddison could look to play a similar role in this game, finding the pocket of space in behind Guendouzi or Ceballos. Although he may not be accustomed to playing in this role, as he prefers a slightly deeper playmaking job, his creative ability could prove to be more impactful if he’s able to get beyond the midfield line and cause problems for the defence.

While there’s an argument that this could be detrimental to Leicester’s overall system, Maddison can afford to step up slightly due to the quality that surrounds him in Leicester’s midfield. Defensively, Wilfried Ndidi has been immense this season, and at the base of midfield, you feel he can provide cover for Maddison. Ndidi is currently leading Europe’s top 5 leagues for both tackles and interceptions, and he has established himself as one of the best defensive midfielders in the world. With 8.5 defensive actions per game, he provides consistent defensive support for the team, and although praise has been heaped on both Soyuncu and Evans this season, Ndidi has been doing the bulk of the defensive work. This defensive shield will be crucial in this game, as Arsenal typically play with a very central formation. Arsenal lack out and out wide players, and if Ndidi can keep the central areas locked down, Arsenal might struggle to find a route to goal.

Arsenal

While Arsenal are much higher in the table than some of their top 6 rivals, they have looked far from convincing this year, with multiple areas of unsettlement. They currently sit in 5th, 6 points behind Leicester, and while the individual quality at Arsenal is superior to that of Leicester’s, the team coherence seems off. Arsenal’s manager is also an inferior area, and Emery’s tactical naivety has been one of Arsenal’s biggest weaknesses this year. However, Arsenal’s results have actually been quite strong when compared to their performances, as they have lost just 2 games. While they have drawn 5, their underlying statistics show that this could be much worse, as they are currently overperforming on both expected goals and expected goals against. This shows that they are incredibly fortunate to be in the position that they’re in.

This will be incredibly worrying for Arsenal, as if they continue with their poor form they could face a drop even further down the table. Also, their luck is clearly starting to run out, as they are now winless in each of their last 3 games, and, although they have played decent teams during this run, none compare to Leicester in terms of quality. Against Leicester, they need to increase their attacking returns having managed just 3.52 expected goals over their last 3 matches. While it seems unlikely that they will be able to add much width to their system due to limited personnel, they should look to include a more diverse set of attacking talent. Nicolas Pepe has started the season in decent form, but with him on the wing, he often comes inside and crowds the central areas.

This could provide reason to start Ozil yet again. The German playmaker has recently made it back into Emery’s plans, and he has actually started in each of the Gunners’ last two games. Ozil plays as an attacking midfielder, and therefore doesn’t provide much width to the squad either; however, he adds more depth to Arsenal’s attack with his ability to drop deep and collect the ball. His inclusion in the squad also allows for Emery to use a two up front, meaning Aubameyang can play in his preferred position alongside Lacazette. Additionally, Ozil offers some much needed creativity in this Arsenal squad. In their last game against Wolves, Ozil made an impressive 3 key passes, and while he wasn’t at his best, it was easy to see the creative impact that he brought to the side. 

From a deeper position, Mateo Guendouzi could also prove to be a creative force. The young Frenchman has been a revelation so far this campaign; arguably Arsenal’s best player thus far. His presence in the center of the park has kept Arsenal’s midfield together, and he is having to cover for multiple incompetences in other areas of the squad. He is currently making 3.3 tackles and interceptions per 90, which is solid for the role that he is playing. What’s more, he is also completing 1.5 dribbles as well as 0.8 key passes, and from midfield he is doing everything for his side. When playing against such a balanced midfield, Guendouzi will be needed to do both defensive and offensive tasks, which he seems perfectly capable of at the moment. If Emery selects a more sensible defensive midfielder behind Guendouzi, you feel that the youngster will be able to thrive even further.

Injuries

One reason for Leicester’s brilliant form at the beginning of the season has been their flawless injury record within the senior squad. At current, not a single player in their first team is lacking fitness, which has been a trend for the majority of the campaign, allowing them to use their strongest players in the big games. They also have an advantage over Arsenal in that they don’t have to play a midweek cup game. While Arsenal have a Europa League game on Wednesday, just three days before this upcoming Premier League fixture, Leicester have the full week to recover.

Although Arsenal will undoubtedly feature a weaker squad midweek, this could still affect the match fitness of all players involved. With such a short recovery time, they will obviously be at a big disadvantage when playing the Foxes. 12 of Leicester’s 27 Premier League goals have come in the last 30 minutes of matches, perhaps indicating that they are a strong side late on in games, and this will be especially worrying for Arsenal if their players start to lose energy near the end of the match. Also, Arsenal have not been good at keeping leads so far this campaign, and they could struggle come the latter stages of this game. Luckily for them, there are no major injuries facing the squad at the moment, and all players should be available for selection over the coming week.

Summary

Although both of these sides are currently overperforming, Leicester at least look like a well-balanced squad who are ready to compete for their place in the top 4. Arsenal on the other hand, are far from their best, and are lucky that teams like Tottenham and Manchester United are performing so poorly. At the moment, everything is in Leicester’s favour. They are on the better form, having gained 9 points in their last 3 Premier League games, compared to Arsenal’s 1. They don’t have to play a midweek fixture. They have a more coherent squad and a far better atmosphere around the club. And finally, they are at home for this match. With the game being played at the King Power, Leicester have a huge advantage. This is because they are unbeaten there this season, with 4 wins and 1 draw, having gained the same amount of home points as Manchester City despite playing a game less. Along with this, each of their last 4 home matches have been wins, showing their spectacular home form. Furthermore, Arsenal have been dreadful when playing away from home this season. The Gunners have the 13th best home record in the Premier League, having gained just 5 points from 5 games on the road. While they have had difficult away fixtures during this time, Liverpool is the only team that they have faced who have been better than Leicester. For all of these reasons, it’s hard to predict an Arsenal win, and I believe that Leicester will come out on top; 2-1.