GW 11: Everton vs. Tottenham

Everton vs. Tottenham

In a season packed full of surprises so far, a number of the best sides of previous years are starting to lose their pedigree. Two sides who have fallen massively at the beginning of this year are Everton and Tottenham, who are set to face on Sunday. While both of these teams are packed full of undoubted individual talent, they sit in 16th and 11th respectively, highlighting their terrible form. They have each won just 3 of their opening 10 matches, and when put together, they have just 22 points between them; 6 less than Liverpool who sit at the top of the league. This poor form does, however, make this match slightly more interesting and important for the sides involved, as they need to get back on track as quickly as possible if they want to be challenging the areas that they should be. When these teams faced each other last year, the games produced some exciting and dramatic results. While at Wembley (Spurs’ home at the time) the teams drew 2-2, but the game at Goodison Park was far more entertaining and unusual, with Tottenham winning 6-2. The common factor between these fixtures was goals. In fact, this fixture has seen a remarkable 24 goals scored in the last 6 matches, averaging out to 4 a game, and with both sides seemingly weak defensively, this could be the case yet again. 

Everton

Everton have regressed exponentially this season, as they sit just 2 points off the relegation zone in 16th. While they started the season quite well, with 7 points from their first 4 games, they have since won just 1 of their proceeding 6 matches, losing all of the other 5. These results show that there is a clear problem within this Everton side; however, luck hasn’t exactly been on their side at the beginning of this year. While their results may not show it, they have been a decent side in most areas, and they are undeserving of their poor place in the league table. According to expected goals, they have the 6th best attack in the league, as well as the 6th best defence, showing that they are massively underperforming when compared to this metric.

This will provide some much needed confidence for the Everton squad, as they actually sit ahead of Spurs on both expected goals and expected goals against. When faced head to head against Spurs though, it will be interesting to see whether Marco Silva can maneuver around Pochetinho’s tactical gameplan. While Spurs have been terrible this year, the individual quality of both the players and the manager at the club means that playing against them will be no easy task. For this reason, Everton will need to improve in multiple areas. Over their last couple of games, they have seen this improvement, and Silva has made a number of tactical adjustments which have made a clear impact on the side.

Perhaps the biggest of these has been Iwobi replacing Sigurdsson in attacking midfield. While Sigurdsson is a fan favorite for the Toffees, due to his ability to score goals, Iwobi has proven to be more effective. This is because he is a much more well-rounded player, and he offers more in the transition than Sigurdsson. When playing, Sigurdsson essentially acts as a second striker, who often gets involved in the end product, but is limited in his ability to build up the play. Iwobi, however, has provided a much needed source of progression this year. While Sigurdsson has provided more key passes per 90 in the Premier League this campaign, Iwobi completes 2.5 dribbles per 90 compared to Sigurdsson’s 1, while Iwobi is also marginally more involved in passing play. Everton have undoubted quality in their forward line, and although Sigurdsson is an incredible player, what’s more needed in the squad is someone who can get the ball into the feet of the forwards, making Sigurdsson somewhat of a luxury item at the moment.

One Everton forward who has been in good form at the start of this year is Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Everton have tried multiple options up front during this campaign, and while Richarlison and Kean have both looked good at times, it’s Calvert-Lewin who has been able to provide consistent returns. Despite playing just 500 minutes this season, Calvert-Lewin has racked up the most expected goals in the Everton squad with 3.02, while he has the 2nd best expected goals per 90 ratio with 0.54. Calvert-Lewin isn’t a particularly creative forward, but with players such as Iwobi, Bernard, and Richarlison potentially playing behind him, it’s most important that he gets into goal scoring positions. He doesn’t tend to take a large amount of shots either, but against a team like Spurs, a clinical finisher is a necessity.

Tottenham

Spurs, like Everton, have fallen off a massive cliff over the past couple of months. What’s more, the promising signs haven’t been there for Spurs, and they are not only recording poor results but also performing poorly in these games. They have now failed to win in each of their last 3 Premier League games, losing to Brighton and drawing with Watford in the process. While Tottenham have been league average in defence, with the 10th best defensive record according to expected goals, their attack has been dreadful, as they rank 16th in this area. This means that although they are currently 11th in the table, already far worse than what they would be hoping for, they are actually overperforming when compared to the chances they are creating and conceding. 

This will be incredibly worrying for Pochetinho, and with the performances that he has seen from his side, he must be considering making a few changes. In previous seasons, their attacking talent has brought them through these rough periods, but now, their offence seems to lack the organization it once had. While Tottenham attempted to fix their central midfield problem in the summer, they have failed to do so in some aspects. Tanguy Ndombele has started the season brilliantly, yet at the base of midfield, Tottenham still lack an active defensive presence. To try and solve this, Pochetinho has been playing Harry Winks as they deepest midfielder, a player who has never been a great defender, while he adds almost no creativity. He’s a competent passer but never fully makes an impact on the game, and perhaps someone like Lo Celso could provide a more energetic performance. Along with this, Spurs lack width in their attack, and with Kieran Trippier gone now, their attacking diversity becomes far more limited.

In Son and Moura, Tottenham have to very good wide forwards; however, both of these players gravitate towards the center of the pitch in matches. This has meant an increasingly deeper role for Harry Kane, who is ineffectively trying to become more of a creative presence. Although it is great to have forwards who are willing to interchange, it seems like the Spurs frontline has been given too much freedom, and with so many players trying to occupy the same position, it’s easy for their opponents to shut them down. This could provide a role for Sessegnon over the next few weeks. While the young wing-back is yet to play for Spurs, this is largely due to injury, and now that he’s back fit he seems a viable option. In his days at Fulham, he was used all along the left hand side of the field, but what stands out is his tendency to occupy the wide areas. While he might be a slightly underdeveloped player, he was averaging both 1.3 key passes and dribbles per 90 last year, and if played as a winger or at wing-back, he can at least pose a presence down the left side of the field, expanding Spurs’ attacking options.

This could see someone like Son thrive, as with a player occupying the wide area, he has more room to cut inside. While Son is classified as a winger by most, he tends to play in more central role, usually just off of Harry Kane. Although this hasn’t been one of Son’s best seasons, he is consistently dangerous for Spurs, and has been productive in attack once again. At the moment, Everton are a team who are particularly open in midfield, and without a strong defensive presence in that area, Son could look to try and test this region. This could mean changing his role slightly, dropping deep more often in order to take advantage of one of Everton’s weaknesses. This could also allow Harry Kane to thrive, and with Son filling the deeper space and potentially taking on a more creative role, Kane can focus on what he does best: scoring goals.

Injuries

In terms of injuries, Everton aren’t looking too bad; however, they could be missing a few crucial players. Summer signing Gbamin is still out with a long term thigh injury which has left Everton without a defensive midfielder. With Gueye having departed, this is one of the major reasons that Everton have found themselves so far down the table, as they lack a shield in front of their backline. Other areas for concern are on the wing, as Bernard has picked up a terrible knee problem, and at center back, where Mina is still recovering from a knock. Bernard’s injury will provide a large amount of worry amongst the Everton squad, as he was hauled off after just 29 minutes of their last Premier League fixture. Before his departure, he had looked lively in his previous few games, and with him gone, Iwobi might be forced into playing on the wing.

For Spurs, the injury list is also relatively short. Lloris, Rose and Lamela will all be missing this game, while Vertonghen is a doubt due to a potential hamstring problem. Although this doesn’t look great for Spurs, they have often struggled severely with injuries in the past, and this is actually quite a good spell for them. Although Rose and Lloris have been crucial players for them this season, Spurs have strong reserves in these areas. Backup goalie Gazzaniga performed wonderfully against Liverpool last weekend, while at left back, the aforementioned Sessegnon should be able to fill Danny Rose’s boots. Sadly for Spurs, this period of relatively strong fitness has not coincided with positive results in the league. 

Summary

The team coherence at Spurs also seems off, and while the last few years have been great during the Pochetinho era, things might finally be falling apart under his stewardship. The same goes for Everton, who are similarly having managerial issues, and you feel that the Toffees need a result here if Marco Silva is to keep his job. Everton will, however, be pleased that this match is at home. All 3 of their Premier League wins this season have come when playing at Goodison Park, while they have only lost 2 when playing at home. To make this even better, their 2 home losses of the season have come against Manchester City and Sheffield United; two incredibly strong sides. On the other side of things, Spurs have an atrocious away record. In the Premier League, Tottenham are winless in each of their last 11 away games, while they have lost 9 of these, a record that stretches back to January of last season. They currently have the 4th worst away record in the division, with just 2 points. Neither side have been in good form, but it’s Everton who have had the better underlying numbers, and when digging deeper into their performances there are still some promising signs for the Toffees. When combining this with their decent home form and Tottenham’s away woes, they suddenly look like favourites to win this game. Because of this, I predict a 2-1 Everton win.