GW 9: Chelsea vs. Newcastle

While international football has provided us with some entertainment in the absence of regular league play, nothing can beat the drama and excitement of the Premier League, which is returning this weekend. There are a number of interesting fixtures to watch out for on matchweek 9, but perhaps one that has slipped under the radar is Chelsea’s home game against Newcastle. While there is a fair bit of disparity between these two sides in the league table, there are a number of factors that suggest that this is a game worth looking into further. First of all, while Chelsea sit in 5th, they have been fairly inconsistent in league play, and under Lampard they never seem as stable as they have been in the past. Along with this, Newcastle have already upset some of the bigger sides this year, and they might be confident in doing so again. When these sides faced in the league last year, Chelsea won both games 2-1, which is a positive for them. However, Chelsea have weakened in a number of areas this year, while Newcastle have looked well organized in a few of their games, and they could definitely be pushing for a better result. Given how close these previous results were, Newcastle will be feeling that they have the potential within their squad to improve even further, and at least take something out of this difficult match.

Chelsea

While Chelsea haven’t always looked assured at the start of this campaign, they have actually rebounded from their transfer ban quite well, and there are some promising signs for them. Following their home loss to table-toppers Liverpool, they have won each of their last two matches, while their underlying numbers are fantastic. They have the third best expected goals tally in the division with 17.24, which is just 0.19 behind Liverpool. They also have fairly strong defensive stats, with just 9.86 expected goals against, showing that they have been incredibly unlucky to have conceded 14 at this point in the season. They are conceding just 9 shots per match, the 2nd best in the division; however, they tend to concede high quality chances when their opponents do break through. 

This is largely due to their possession based playing style, as they tend to hold onto the ball for long periods of time which can leave them open on the counter. When their backline is tested, the results aren’t pretty, with 0.14 expected goals attached to the average shot they concede. This is one of the highest in the division along with Manchester City and Everton, while when compared to Liverpool’s 0.1, the problems become apparent. This could be perfect for their opponents Newcastle, who tend to sit deep for the majority of the game, relying on a low number of high quality chances. One way that Chelsea could look to solve this is by reverting back to their 3-4-2-1 that they have used at varying points throughout the season. While they have avoided using this formation over their past three Premier League fixtures, it was employed against Lille in the Champions League to great effect, as they went on to win 2-1. While this formation can sometimes leave them short-handed at the back, it allows their full-backs to roam forwards with less risk, and gives them more central-defensive cover. 

When playing with a three at the back, Marcos Alonso always becomes a crucial player in the Chelsea side. When Alonso is used as a left-back, his defensive flaws are often exposed, but at left-wingback, he can get up the field and provide a source of progression for Lampard’s men. Alonso offers incredible ball-delivery from the left hand side of the field and is currently averaging 1.8 key passes per 90, an impressive figure when considering the positions that he has played. This attacking threat is obviously more prominent when he is used as a wing-back, while it also gives him more defensive cover and limits his defensive responsibilities. A player who often has to take on some of these defensive responsibilities is N’golo Kante. 

With less players filling the midfield in a 3-4-2-1, Kante’s ability to cover large amounts of ground becomes even more important, while he essentially has to do the defensive work for two midfielders. Luckily for Chelsea, this is exactly what Kante is so good at, and what he has been doing for the past few seasons now. While Kante has missed quite a bit of action at the start of this season due to injury, he has been brilliant when on the field. In the Premier League, he is averaging 5.6 tackles and interceptions per 90, which is incredible for someone who plays in a possession-dominant side. While Newcastle’s attack isn’t superb, Kante’s defensive presence allows Lampard to include players like Alonso and Jorginho in the squad, who are primarily creative players, as they know that Kante will be able to mop up behind and keep them playing on the front foot. 

Newcastle

Like Chelsea, Newcaslte have been going through a period of adaptation at the start of this season, and they haven’t been doing as bad as most people might have thought. While they sit in 16th, with just 8 points so far, they have obtained some big results already, and they have proven that they are incredibly difficult to beat. They have excelled against the bigger sides beating both Tottenham and Manchester United this year, with their only two Premier League wins coming against side in the traditional “top 6”.  This is largely due to their tendency to sit deep against these bigger sides, which seems to fit their personnel perfectly. New manager Steve Bruce has continued on with the tactics that Rafa Benitez was previously employing, as they tend to sit with an incredibly deep block, limiting space for their opponents. 

They are averaging the least amount of possession in the league with just about 37.5% per match, while they strive off a limited number of chances. They’ve also scored the least amount of goals out of any team with just 5, while expected goals shows that this is fair, and they also have the lowest expected goals tally for the season. All of this shows that they have much to work on in terms of their attacking strategy, but at the same time, they could be well set for this game. Chelsea’s possession based style plays right into Newcaslte’s hands, as it allows for them to keep their compact shape at the back, while limiting their opponents to low-quality chances. While Chelsea have strong individual talent in attack, they’ve struggled to break down sitting defences in the past, while they are often easily exposed on the counter-attack.

This will make Saint-Maximin a crucial player in Steve Bruce’s side. Saint-Maximin is yet to make his breakthrough in the Premier League, but given his skill-set he could be well suited to this type of game. He is an energetic player, with plenty of pace, while he is also an incredible dribbler, averaging just under 6 dribbles per 90 this Premier League season. This means that he could be incredibly useful on the break, especially when playing a side with a relatively inexperienced backline. He tends to play as the most advanced player for Newcastle, often even ahead of Joelinton, and when playing just off of the Brazilian target man, he can look to receive the ball when Newcastle break. While it will be slightly harder when playing against a side with a back three, he can look to sneak in behind Reece James on the right, and potentially add more attacking threat than he has been doing. 

On a more defensive note, Schar has been Newcastle’s most outstanding player, and has developed into one of the most effective central defenders in the Premier League. He is second in the Newcastle squad for tackles, with 2.8 per match, and first for interceptions with 2.4, and he often steps out of the line to deal with threatening situations. This will be important when going head to head with Mason Mount, who is one of the most talented youngsters in the entire league at the moment. Mount is more of an attacking midfielder than a winger, and he sometimes drops deeper into the midfield meaning that Schar will need to be aggressive in his defensive strategy. However, Mount often goes beyond Abraham to get into goal scoring positions, and overall, Schar’s mobility will be crucial in defending such an energetic and pacey player.

Injuries

Chelsea’s form becomes even more impressive when considering the vast amount of injury problems that they have faced this year. While they are slightly better off now, there are still a few worrying issues within the camp that could affect them in this match. Defensively, a number of players could be absent with Rudiger and Emerson both serious doubts, while Christensen and James might still be facing some recovery problems. While Emerson started the season well, the shift to a three at the back limits his importance, and the most concerning injury will be the one that Rudiger recently picked up. This is the second time that he has been injured this season, and given that he is probably their best central defender, his absence could be the reason that they are allowing such high-quality chances. 

For Newcastle, they are also missing a few key players with the likes of Lejune, Ritchie and Hayden expected to miss this game. While Lejune and Ritchie are suffering from rather long term injuries, Hayden recently picked up a suspension when he received a red card against Leicester, meaning he won’t return until early November. Out of these three, Ritchie has been missed the most, as the creativity and attacking threat that he provides from wing-back has not been matched by Jetro Willems. This is one of the main reasons that Newcastle have struggled in attack, and given he isn’t expected back until the 27th of October, they’ll have to find new ways to create attacking opportunities.

Summary

While both sides were expected to have difficult seasons this year, they have bounced back from some behind-the-scenes issues in order to stay competitive within the division. Neither side has seen any major downturn from last season despite supposedly downgrading in their respective managerial positions. Along with this, this match is no foregone conclusion despite what some may think, with both sides proving very difficult to beat. Chelsea are expected to dominate this match, with their superior possession play, but Newcastle are the best in the division at employing a deep-lying defence. Also, while Chelsea are at home for this game, their record at Stamford Bridge has been poor in recent matches. Chelsea have won just one home Premier League game this season, which came in their last match against Brighton, and while they have faced challenging opponents this year, their home form is slightly unacceptable. Along with a loss to Liverpool, they have drawn with both Leicester and Sheffield United when playing in front of their own fans, showing that they have not managed to create a home fortress with Frank Lampard in charge. While Chelsea are obviously favourites to win this match, it’s hard to look past Newcastle's imperious form against the big boys, and for this reason, I don’t believe Chelsea will come out of this with all three points. I’m predicting a 1-1 draw here, with Chelsea’s home woes set to continue.