GW 8: Liverpool vs. Leicester

As the Premier League season rolls on, there is more clarity now over the quality of different sides in the division. Two teams who are right up at the top of the table are Liverpool and Leicester, who play on matchweek 8 in what should be a fascinating fixture. With Liverpool in 1st and Leicester in 3rd, this is clearly a match between two of the giants in the league at the moment, and while Liverpool do have an 8 point lead over their upcoming opponents, Leicester have already managed to shock some of the big boys. Not only have Leicester been competing with some of the strongest teams in the league, but they’ve also looked the higher quality side in a few of these matches. They’ve also been managing more consistency than teams like Tottenham, Chelsea and Arsenal. This means that they will prove to be a very different proposition than they were last year. When these sides played each other in the league last season it was always a close battle. When at the King Power Stadium, Liverpool came out on top with a 2-1 win; however, when the sides played at Anfield, Leicester managed to achieve a 1-1 draw; a very impressive result. This meant that the Foxes were one of only two teams to take points off Liverpool when playing at Anfield in last season’s Premier League, Manchester City being the only other team to accomplish this. This is an extraordinary feat for a mid-table side to achieve, and now that they are pushing on even further, with ambitions to push on into the top 6, they’ll be looking to repeat their success.

Liverpool

Leicester, however, will face no easy task, as Liverpool have looked as imperious as ever in the league this year. They have started the campaign with 7 wins out of 7 and their resilience at the start of the season has been phenomenal. While they haven’t been at their best in a few of their opening matches, Klopp’s men have continually denied the odds to swing results in their favour, which has lead to a 5 point lead over their title rivals Manchester City. In their last match they continued this form with a difficult 1-0 win over Sheffield United. Sheffield defended with extreme organization in this game, and for large parts it looked like they could go on to win it, but a switch in tactics towards the end of the game meant that Liverpool were able to put more pressure on the defence, and were able to get a fortunate goal.

Like Sheffield, Leicester are a well-structured defensive side, and Liverpool will want to bring more threat into their attack in this game. In their last match, Liverpool were incredibly reliant on their full-backs to progress the ball and create chances for their side, like they have been over the past couple of seasons.  This means that in this match they might want to bring a more central creator into the squad. This could help to give more attacking options while spreading the creativity around the pitch, making them more unpredictable. There are multiple ways that they could look to do this whether it be switching to a 4-2-3-1 so that Firmino can play as an attacking midfielder, or potentially bring a more dynamic central midfielder into the lineup.

With Keita back from injury now, this could be a perfect game for him to play in. Although a 4-2-3-1 could work well, this will put Leicester defensive midfielder Wilfried Ndidi in a perfect position to mark Firmino, and Ndidi could potentially limit Liverpool’s attacking interplay. With Keita, however, Liverpool will have more progression in their side while he could provide a differential attacking option. When playing last year, Keita was averaging 1.5 key passes per 90 in the Premier League while this jumped to 3 in the Champions League. This dribbling capacity from midfield will take pressure off of the forwards and full-backs, and give Liverpool an extra option when attacking.

Another midfield player who could make an impact on this game is Fabinho. Fabinho has started his second season with the Reds in immense form and has arguably been their best, and most consistent player to start the year. Fabinho has been making 3.9 tackles and interceptions from the base of midfield, which is impressive when adjusted for the possession that Liverpool tend to have. This defensive ability will be incredibly important when playing against Maddison, as the Leicester attacking midfielder loves to dribble up the pitch and Fabinho can help to stop this form of progression. Fabinho is also superb at defending counter-attacking scenarios due to his pace and aggression, which help to slow down the opposition. Perhaps even more importantly, his ability on the ball has grown during his time under Klopp, and along with the two centre-backs, he has created a strong base from which Liverpool can start their attacks. With 1.3 key passes per 90 it’s clear that he has become an attacking threat for the Reds, and the progression that he offers will be crucial against a solid defensive side.

Leicester

Leicester, like Liverpool, have started the season brilliantly, far exceeding what was expected of them. With 14 points currently, only Liverpool and Manchester City sit ahead of them in the league, while they have won 4 of their 7 matches so far. They haven’t played easy fixtures either, and while they are yet to play against the top two, they have faced Manchester United, Tottenham, Chelsea and Wolves already. Also, when playing the lower level sides, they have been incredibly consistent having beaten Sheffield United, Bournemouth and Newcastle; all teams that will most likely end up in the bottom half of the table come the end of the year. The reason for their consistency has been in their defending.

While their attack hasn’t been superb to start the season, they have proven themselves as one of the best defensive sides in the league, with the second best defensive record according to expected goals. They have conceded just 5.74 expected goals so far, which is only bettered by Manchester United. This solid defence will, however, be heavily tested in this match, against such a powerful front three. This means that they might have to take even more defensive precautions. As they know that this is an area that they can count on, they can look to put their focus here, playing into their strength. This could involve bringing Hamza Choudhury back into the side while potentially using more defence-minded wingers in order to shut down Liverpool’s full-backs.

If Choudhury does get into the game, he could provide crucial defensive support for the backline. In some of Leicester’s more challenging games this season, Choudhury has been brought in as a more defensive midfielder in front of Ndidi, who can sweep up around the midfield and provide a well-rounded skill set. Against Liverpool, playing Choudhury on the right-side of Leicester’s midfield could be effective. From here, he can help to track Liverpool’s most offensive midfielder, who tends to play on the left for them, while also covering for Ricardo Pereira when he bursts forward from right-back. In the Premier League, Choudhury is averaging an impressive 4.6 tackles and interceptions per 90. While he is not the most accurate with his challenges, with just a 50% tackle success rate, he can afford to sacrifice quality for quantity, with his job being to act as the more dynamic midfielder. Also, with Ndidi covering him at the base, his errors are often insignificant.

The main reason for Leicester’s defensive solidity at the start of this campaign has been Ndidi’s presence in front of the defence, as he’s stepped up his game this year. Ndidi is leading the league in both tackles (with 5.5) and interceptions (with 3.8) per 90 this season making him one of the best defensive players in the league. Although he doesn’t bring as much attacking threat as someone like Fabinho, his ability to consistently win the ball back for his team means that they have more time on the ball, while they have more opportunities to push forward. With him shielding the backline Leicester rarely concede, and they should be relatively confident, even when going up against one of the best frontlines in the world.

Injuries

In terms of injuries at the moment, Liverpool are looking strong, and their squad should nearly be at full fitness for this game. Like mentioned, Keita has recently returned from his latest injury, which should provide a boost to Liverpool’s midfield. The return of Keita means that Alisson and Shaqiri are the only players who could be absent from this match. Saying this, Alisson has returned to full training and it’s possible that he makes it back for his first appearance since gameweek 1. Something else to consider is that Liverpool do have to play a midweek Champions League fixture. They play on Wednesday, meaning they have just three days in between matches, and this could significantly affect the fitness of some of their players.

This might provide Leicester with a big advantage in this match, especially towards the latter stages of the game. Also, like Liverpool, Leicester are quite injury free at current. The only problem that Leicester could be facing come this weekend’s match is the potential absence of James Maddison. Maddison missed Leicester’s last game against Newcastle due to an ankle injury, and while it’s largely rumored that he should be fit for this match, there is still a slight doubt regarding his injury status. If he were to miss this match, it could have severe implications on Leicester’s ability to create and attack with threat. This is because Maddison is one of the most forward thinking players in the side, and his individual quality often drags his team through games against the bigger sides.

Summary

With both of these teams in incredible league form, neither of them look like dropping points, but in this match, at least one of them will have to sacrifice their initiative. These sides have lost just 1 game in 14 matches when combining their records, showing a supreme consistency to start the year. Along with this, Leicester have proven their worth against some of the best sides in the league, taking points off Tottenham and Chelsea, but if they want to establish themselves as a serious top 4 competitor, they need to obtain consistent results against the elite teams. If they were to get anything in this game, they would be making a huge statement to their top 4 rivals. This is because Liverpool have won each of their last 16 Premier League games, which is the second best record in Premier League history, and at the moment, they look like one of the best sides to have ever graced the division. Along with this, Liverpool will be playing at home, where they are in the middle of a 43 game unbeaten streak. Although Leicester are an incredibly strong side, they are yet to be tested by either of the top two this year, which can largely skew their numbers in their favour. For this reason, while their defensive record has been extremely impressive, you feel they haven’t been tested like some teams have, and you would always back Liverpool’s frontline to get on the scoresheet. I’m predicting a 2-1 Liverpool win.