GW 11: Crystal Palace vs. Leicester

Gameweek 11

Crystal Palace vs. Leicester

The Premier League season has offered us plenty of shocks so far, and as we head into gameweek 11, there is an enticing fixture in store for us between two teams who have surprised everyone up to this point. On Sunday, Leicester against Crystal Palace might not be the main fixture; with Everton and Tottenham facing later in the day, but given the form of these two sides, it will certainly make for an interesting game. Currently, Leicester are sitting in 3rd, while Crystal Palace have defied the odds even further, proving everyone wrong by making their way into the top 6. While for Leicester, their strong start could have been anticipated, Crystal Palace were largely touted to finish in the relegation zone this campaign, but they have actually looked incredibly solid in a number of areas. Leicester look the much stronger side at the moment, but it was surprisingly Crystal Palace who dominated in this fixture last year. Palace recorded a demanding 4-1 win when playing at the King Power Stadium, and at home earlier in the year, they had achieved a well-fought 1-0 victory. Things this year should be much different though, as Leicester have been clearly one of the best sides in the league. Also, when these sides faced last season, Brendan Rodgers was not yet the manager of the Foxes, and his reign has coincided with a clear improvement at the club. Now, with Leicester in superb form, they will be looking to get a must needed win against Palace this time round.

Crystal Palace

Palace are having their best start to a season in recent history, and while their underlying numbers aren’t the best, they are continuously grinding out results. At the moment, they have 15 points from their first 10 league games, having won 4 and drawn 3. While they have obtained pleasing results against a few of the top sides, it’s been their consistency against teams below them that has been more impressive. They have only lost one game to a team who you would expect to finish in the bottom ten this season, and that was against a relatively strong Sheffield United side. Along with this, they have won all three of their easier games, when playing Aston Villa, Norwich and West Ham. This has largely been down to their strong defensive performances against these sides, and the organized unit that Hodgson has set up at the back.

On attack, however, things have not looked as good for the Eagles, as they have really struggled to score goals this campaign. They have scored just 10 times, which is the 5th worst in the division, while they haven’t exactly been underperforming either. They are quite deservant of their poor offensive record, and according to expected goals, they should have scored just about 11 this year. This means that only Newcastle have a worse record in this metric. While this is obviously something to worry about heading into the Leicester game, Crystal Palace have obtained good results so far despite not scoring many goals. This means that depending on what Palace and Hodgson are looking to achieve, they could look to sit back and focus on utilizing their strong defence. This will, however, make it difficult for them to obtain all three points.

Someone who will be important to Palace defensively, as well as possibly in the attack, is Luka Milivojevic, who has started the season well yet again. Playing as a defensive midfield player, he has the most midfield minutes in the Crystal Palace squad. It’s easy to see why as well, as he is leading the squad for both tackles and interceptions, with a combined 5.1 per match. From the base of midfield, he is also crucial to his side’s relatively limited possession play, as he is currently making 47.4 passes per match, yet again the most in the squad. Another reason that he could be important for Palace, is his ability to consistently score from the penalty spot. Although this wouldn’t seem like a regular occurence, the pace and power of Zaha and Townsend on the wings mean Palace quite frequently get the chance to score from 12 yards out. Milivojevic has already scored 2 penalties this season, and against a strong defensive side in Leicester, this could end up being a way that they break through.

Another defensive player that has contributed heavily on the attack this season is left-back Patrick Van Aanholt. While he is not the most individually talented defensive player, making 2.8 tackles and interceptions per match, he offers a route of progression for Crystal Palace and he often finds himself in advanced areas. He is making 0.7 key passes per match, while he also gets 0.9 shots away on average. While this isn’t brilliant, it is perhaps more indicative of Palace’s general defensive style. When Van Aanholt does burst forwards though, he offers a crucial presence on the left wing, allowing Zaha to go infield where he becomes so dangerous. While Van Aanholt hasn’t been brilliant to start the year, he has solid defensive abilities, while he is one of the few players in the Palace squad who provides something different in attack, and in this match, he could have a good time down the left wing, looking to catch out Pereira who often roams forwards. 

Leicester

Leicester, like Palace, are looking to have one of their best ever Premier League seasons, and if they continue on the same trajectory, this campaign will have only been bettered by their 15/16 season. Currently in 3rd, Leicester are good value for their position so far, and while they might not be as strong as the Chelsea team who are just behind them, they definitely deserve a place in the top four. Leicester are in great form as well, and since their loss to Liverpool two weeks ago, they have won their last two in the Premier League. This includes a hard fought 2-1 victory over a strong Burnley side, as well as their record-breaking 9-0 win over Southampton. While the scoreline against Southampton might be slightly misleading, their performance in the match was excellent, and it really showed the quality that they have in all areas of the pitch.

They are, however, overperforming this season according to expected goals. While they have a superb defence, with just 11.74 expected goals conceded, the 5th best in the division it’s their attack that has been fortunate, as while they have scored an immense 25 goals, expected goals says this should be 13.31, an incredible difference of 11.69. This will be worrying for Leicester, especially when coming up against a side who have become renowned for their defensive solidity this year. While Leicester have proven to be a clinical side, there aren’t many gaps in Palace’s system, and they’ll have to up their creativity in this match. Depending on how the game starts, Leicester could look to push their full-backs even further forwards than usual, in order to try and create two on one situations in the wide areas. While this could leave them open to Palace’s pacey wingers, this is always an option if they are struggling to create opportunities.

This attacking-mindset was shown by Chilwell in Leicester’s last game, and to brilliant effect. He scored the opening goal of the match, pushing on from his role at left-back, while he also grabbed two assists in the process, combining dangerously with Harvey Barnes on the left side. While he is perhaps not as established as an attacking force as Pereira on the other side, his interplay and match intelligence make him a threat. Chilwell is currently completing the most passes per match in the Leicester squad, with a superb 77.6 per match, showing that play consistently travels through him down the wing. He provides a source of progression for Leicester, and he also contributes on the creative side, averaging 1.4 key passes per match. Against a side like Crystal Palace, who are undoubtedly going to sit deep when Leicester have possession, Chilwell’s ability to provide a threat down the left wing could add another dimension to Leicester’s attack.

What makes Chilwell so effective though, is his budding relationship with young winger Harvey Barnes. Barnes also played incredibly in Leicester’s thrashing of Southampton, as almost all of their players did, and over the past couple seasons, he has continued his development into a crucial part of this Leicester team. He has played just over half the minutes available to him in the Premier League this year, and his recent performances suggest that he should potentially get an even greater share of the gametime. In just 485 minutes, he has the most assists in the Leicester squad with 4, while he has also chipped in with 1 goal, and like mentioned earlier, he allows Chilwell to flourish. This is because he is a winger who focuses on cutting inside, trying to get onto his right foot in central areas. This means that Chilwell can often take up empty space on the left wing, sometimes without a marker. In this upcoming game, Chilwell and Barnes can continue to dominate down the left side of the field, and when creating a two on one situation, they will have the chance to create for their teammates.

Injuries

At the moment, both sides are looking especially strong in terms of injuries. Crystal Palace will be missing a maximum of two players for this upcoming match, with Vincente Guaita still recovering, while Sakho is struggling with a long term injury. Guaita’s groin problem will be somewhat of a worry though, as he has been their starting keeper at the beginning of this campaign. He has now been absent from Palace’s last two league matches, when they faced Manchester City and Arsenal, and in this time they have conceded 4 goals. Although they were playing difficult opponents, this is a clear downgrade from their earlier defensive performances, and with a weaker goalkeeper playing between the sticks, Leicester’s clinical finishers could enjoy this game. Sakho’s injury, however, is slightly less important, as Cahill has stepped into the backline excellently, with no real regression in Palace’s solid defensive unit.

While Crystal Palace are facing a few minor issues, all of Leicester’s injury news is positive. With Matty James being the only injury concern, a man who has played just 992 minutes of league football over the past four seasons, it’s clear to see why Leicester are performing so well in the league. Leicester did, however, play a League Cup game midweek, a competition which Crystal Palace have already exited. This means that they could be lacking full fitness coming into this game, and while it won’t provide the biggest effect, we could see some tired Leicester legs in the latter stages of this upcoming match. With players such as Tielemans, Choudhury and Evans all starting in this game, their minutes might have to be limited come Sunday’s fixture.

Summary

At the moment though, nothing looks as if it can stop Leicester, and their rampant form recently is expected to continue in this match. While Palace have proven to be a solid side, you wouldn’t expect them to reach any higher than mid-table this year, with the quality at their disposal, while Leicester could easily finish in a relatively high position. Palace have contained some of the bigger sides already this year, but when looking into the underlying numbers from some of these games, they have often been dominated by the elite teams. While Leicester aren’t necessarily at that level, they certainly have been strong finishers this campaign, and unlike a team like Manchester United, they will probably finish most of the chances given to them. Interestingly, in each of Palace’s last 5 home games, 2 or less goals have been scored, while in Leicester’s last 5 league matches, 3 or more have come each time. This shows the difference in these two sides, with Crystal Palace likely to sit back and defend in this match, despite being the home team. The difference is though, while Leicester actually have a very competent defence, Crystal Palace have been poor in attacking areas this season, and Leicester are the much more well-rounded team. For this reason, Leicester look like the favourites for this match, especially with the form that they’re in. While Palace might be able to hold them close, I believe that Leicester will end up getting the better of them. I predict 1-0.