GW 10: Newcastle vs. Wolves

With the Premier League really heating up now, as we approach the tenth gameweek of the new season, the table is shaping up in quite an unusual way, with many sides performing either better or worse than what was originally expected. One side that have massively fallen off from last season is Wolves, and they are set to play in a crucial fixture against Newcastle this weekend. While Newcastle may not be the most high quality opponents, sitting 18th in the table, Wolves struggle against sides who employ a deep block, and they don’t have the best record against sides in the bottom ten. Along with this, Newcastle have actually been very solid defensively this campaign. The Magpies are incredibly adept at sitting deep, and Steve Bruce has managed to maintain the strong organization that was started during Rafa Benitez’s reign. This defensive resistance was shown when these two teams met last season as well. Newcastle lost 2-1 when playing at home, but this was largely due to a red card received by Deandre Yedlin, and when the sides played most recently, they drew 1-1. While Wolves will be expected to win this match, they have been nowhere near their best at the beginning of this campaign, while Newcastle have proven that they can cause problems for any side.

Newcastle

Although their results haven’t shown it, Newcastle have been relatively solid to start this new season, and while they won’t be satisfied with their position in the table, there have been some promising signs for Steve Bruce’s men. Interestingly, Newcastle have thrived when facing the bigger sides this campaign, as their defensive system allows them to keep possession-based teams contained. Because of this, their only two wins have come against Spurs and Manchester United. This doesn’t exactly bode well for this game though, as Wolves similarly enjoy playing on the break. This means Newcastle will have to be more offensive with their gameplan, and potentially keep hold of the ball for longer periods. 

This, however, is not a strength of theirs as their attack has been dreadful this year. They have the lowest expected goals tally in the division as well as the least amount of goals in general with just 5. As well as this, the only team that has been taking less shots than they have is Wolves, but the quality of chance that Wolves are creating is far higher than that of Newcastle. Against a three at the back, Newcastle might be able to improve on this, but Steve Bruce still needs to find ways for his side to get more shots off. One way they could look to do this is by overloading the wide areas in order to get more crosses into the middle. Although their centre-forward Joelinton is not a typical target player despite his size, you feel that he needs more chances in and around the area, and given his height, these shooting opportunities could come from headers.

This will leave a big role for Saint-Maximin on the wing, who has really come into good form over the past couple of games. Although Saint-Maximin is not a crossing based winger, he is brilliant at driving his team forward, and he can help by putting pressure on the Wolves wing-back. Saint-Maximin is a dribbling machine with 5.2 dribbles per 90 in the Premier League, and this is Newcastle’s main source of progression at the moment. Although Saint-Maximin loves to come more centrally a lot of the time, it might be more helpful for him to put pressure on Wolves through the wide areas, looking for Joelinton in the box. He could also be more crucial than ever when playing on the counter-attack, as Wolves’ right wing-back will undoubtedly leave space in behind them for Saint-Maximin to exploit. 

Once Saint-Maximin does bring the ball forwards though, it will be up to Jetro Willems at left wing-back to provide the delivery into the box. Willems is a fairly attack-minded player in this Newcastle set up, and although he is yet to complete a cross this season, during his time in Germany he was always putting up decent crossing numbers. Before Matt Ritchie got injured, a lot of Newcastle’s chance creation was coming down their left-hand side by means of crosses into the area, and this is something that Bruce might want to encourage in this match.

Wolves

Wolves, like Newcastle, will have been very disappointed with their results so far, as they are currently in 12th, a big drop-off from the 7th place finish that they managed last year. While Wolves have seen a slight upturn in form over the past few games, winning 2 in a row before drawing with Southampton last week, there is still doubt over whether they have returned to their level of last season. Like mentioned, Wolves are taking a ridiculously low amount of shots. They are averaging just 8.9 in the league, while this has dropped to a mere 5.6 over their last three games. Similarly to last season though, the shots that they are taking are high-value opportunities, as during this three game time period, each shot of theirs has had an average value of 0.19 expected goals. This is far higher than the league average 0.10, showing that they are great at creating high-quality chances. 

This will, however, be a problem against a team like Newcastle, as they typically don’t concede high value shots. Also, it’s unlikely that Wolves will be able to create much on the counter-attack, which is usually their main source of attacking threat. This means that Nuno Espirito Sanchez will have to reinvent his system in order to fit a more possession based style of play that will need to be capable of breaking down a deep block. Wolves will definitely want to go with a 3-5-2 over a 3-4-3 in this match, as one area that they could look to expose Newcastle in is in central midfield. Newcastle's 5-4-1 allows for only two central midfielders in their squad, and with a 3-5-2, Wolves can look to gain an advantage in this area.

This will require Joao Moutinho to step up his game in this match, so that he can look to control Wolves’ creativity from the center of the park. Moutinho has seen a massive decline from his brilliant season last year, and his impact is yet to be felt in the same way at the start of this campaign. This is one of the main reasons that Wolves are struggling to create a substantial amount of chances this season; however, not all of the blame should be placed on the Portuguese playmaker. He is currently leading the Wolves squad in key passess with 1.6 per 90, and while this is quite a low number, this is perhaps more indicative of an underlying problem in the whole of the Wolves team. As Wolves should be able to dominate possession in this match, Moutinho will be expected to improve on his recent performances and help create more chances against a deep-lying Newcastle side.

Creativity could also come from Adama Traore on the wing, as the Spaniard has brought an extra dimension to Wolves this season. Playing as a right wing-back, Traore is an incredibly explosive player, and he can look to use his pace and dribbling ability to get in behind the Newcastle backline. He is leading this Wolves side in dribbles with an impressive 3.7 per 90, and against such a conservative side, his individual quality could come to the forefront of Wolves’ play. However, Newcastle do usually have substantial cover on the wings, and therefore Adama Traore can use his presence to draw players in before playing it into the middle. He can also look to take on a more passing based role. This way, Wolves can make the most of Newcastle’s limited numbers in midfield, and potentially look to overload that area.

Injuries

At the moment, neither side is suffering too extensively through injuries; however, Newcastle will be missing a few useful players. The main things to take note of here are the confirmed absences of Ritchie and Hayden, both of whom are regular contributors to this Newcastle side. While Hayden is suspended until November 2nd after receiving a red card a couple of weeks ago, Ritchie is still suffering from the long term injury that he obtained at the beginning of the season. The absence of Ritchie is definitely a big problem for Steve Bruce’s men, as like mentioned earlier, he was the main progressor in the side before he got injured. While there is a small chance that he returns for this match, he has not yet made it back to training with the first team, and it’s doubtful that he will have fully recovered by game day. This will undoubtedly limit Newcastle’s creative abilities, and Steve Bruce will have to hope that Jetro Willems can match the Scotsmen’s usual output from wing-back.

Wolves are also struggling with a few injuries at the moment; however, none of these problems appear to be major. In defence, both Bennett and Saiss are currently suffering from injuries and are doubts for this game, while in more advanced areas, Neves has obtained a knock while Pedro Neto has a heel injury. The injury to Bennett will obviously provide some concern, as he is a regular starter in Wolves’ back three, and while his replacement Vallejo has shown promising signs, he made a few mistakes on the weekend against Southampton. The absence of Neves will also be a big concern if he’s not able to return. Especially in a 3-5-2, Neves helps to facilitate the game from the base of midfield due to his varied skill set, and without him, they could struggle even further when trying to adapt to a possession based style.

Summary

Given the state of these two teams, this fixture is crucial for both sides, as they are each much further down the table than they would like. Also, while this game might not provide viewers with the most entertainment, from a tactical perspective it will be interesting to see how two deep-lying sides face up against each other. Neither team generally likes to play with the ball, and for this reason they often play at their best against the big teams, as well as opposition who are willing to do most of the attacking. In this match though, one team will have to take the initiative, and control most of the possession. While Newcastle are playing at home, you would expect Wolves to dominate the ball, as they have the higher quality individual talent, while Nuno Espirito Santo is a more forward-thinking manager. This can, however, be expected to be quite a dull affair, with these two teams taking the least shots in the Premier League this season. Also, there have been 2 or less goals in 9 of Wolves’ last 11 Premier League matches, while the same can be said for all of Newcastle’s last 4 home games. This makes it very hard to imagine a high-scoring match, as both of these sides are often praised for their well-organized defensive systems. While Wolves might be favourites to win this match, having come back into some good form recently, their record against sides in the lower half of the table is terrible. For this reason, I’m predicting a 1-1 draw, and while Wolves might keep more of the ball, I don’t believe that this will translate into a high amount of goalscoring chances.