GW 7: Manchester United vs. Arsenal

We’ve seen some crucial fixtures played out over the first few weeks of the Premier League season; however, none of them compare in importance to Manchester United against Arsenal which is to be played on matchweek 7. This match is set to have lasting implications on what should be an incredibly close race for the top 4. Both of these historical Premier League giants have, however, endured poor starts to the season. At current, United sit in 8th with a meager 8 points after 6 games, while Arsenal are slightly better off, with 11 points. Also, these poor recent results have been well deserved, showing that big improvements will need to be made if these sides want to push for the top 4, especially with teams like Leicester and West Ham playing far better. Although this year provides a much different prospect, these sides have always been close in the past. This was shown last year, when in three fixtures between the sides, each team won one a piece, with a draw in the mix as well. In the two Premier League games, however, Arsenal managed the best of the results, winning 2-0 at home while drawing 2-2 away. Arsenal have started as the better side this year, but Manchester United have the better underlying numbers and it will be interesting to see if they can bring this to the forefront in such an important match.

Like mentioned, Manchester United will be incredibly disappointed with some of the results that have come their way, especially in their most recent fixtures. United have now won just 1 of their last 4 Premier League matches, in an astoundingly bad run that has seen them lose to the likes of Crystal Palace and West Ham while drawing with Southampton. When digging deeper though, things look slightly more promising. United still have the best underlying defensive numbers in the league according to expected goals, with just 3.82 expected goals conceded. Along with this, they have limited their opponents to less than 1 expected goal in each of their last 5 Premier League games, showing a recent rise in defensive competence. This shows that they have been very unlucky with some of their results. With teams like West Ham scoring 2 goals despite only managing 0.51 expected goals, it’s visible that Manchester United have been on the wrong end of some high quality finishing, but if they manage to continue with their defensive organization, this is bound to improve. What should be focused more heavily on is their attack. With Marcus Rashford out injured, Solskjaer will have to reinvent his system in order to incorporate more attacking threat and chance creation; two things his side have been missing recently. One way that he could potentially look to do this is by using a dynamic front two, in a 4-2-4 formation instead of a 4-2-3-1 when attacking. If he were to do this though, the strikers would have to be consistent in dropping deep, in order to fill the space in front of Arsenal’s midfield while also creating a more mobile partnership in order to catch opposing defenders off guard.

This formational switch could provide an opportunity for Mason Greenwood. The young English striker has impressed in very few minutes this season, and he fits the style that Manchester United want to play. Greenwood is an incredibly mobile player, who likes to move around the frontline, while he is also a shot monster, with 3.8 shots per 90 in the Premier League this year. Although it is still very early on in his career to judge him, he has the potential to form a great partnership with Anthony Martial in this game and given that they are both very versatile players, they could look to interchange in order to fill the hole left in the attacking midfield space. Another young player who could step up into that space at times is Daniel James. Like Greenwood, James looks like an incredibly promising United player, while he is actually becoming a crucial starter for the side. He has three goals this season, most of which have come when cutting inside onto his right foot, and if he continues that trend here, he can also look to provide a central presence in front of Arsenal’s midfield. James will, however, want to start his plays in a wide area, trying to occupy Arsenal’s right-back, in order to allow the United’s left-back to bomb forward and create an overload. From here, James will have the left-sided option of his full-back or the right-sided option which he could take by darting in field. Ultimately, United could be playing without an attacking midfielder in this match, but they should look to fill this gap through a number of different attacking alternatives, creating a more fluid and versatile system in the process.

Arsenal, while also not at their best, are facing different issues to those of Manchester United. Arsenal have started the season with much stronger results than their Manchester counterparts having won 3 and lost just 1. However, they haven’t looked any better than they were last year, while they have actually been very lucky to achieve the results that they have. This has been incredibly apparent in their last two matches: a draw with Watford and a win against Aston Villa. They were dominated when they drew with Watford, with expected goals predicting a 2.83 to 1.01 scoreline, while against Aston Villa, while things were slightly better, they were still struggling at certain stages. This has come against two teams who are currently in the relegation zone, and considering how many good chances these teams were allowed to create, the prospects of facing a team like United should worry them. While Arsenal’s backline has always been poor, the area that could be easier to fix is the midfield. At the moment, Arsenal’s midfield is allowing teams through too easily, while they aren’t providing enough cover for a defence which clearly isn’t on par with some of the other teams in the league. For this to improve, Xhaka has to be removed from the side. Although Xhaka is a good progressor of the ball, his defensive work is far worse, and when playing as the deepest lying midfielder (as he has been), he doesn’t provide a shield for his defence. 

Emery should look to bring Torreira back into the side, who for some reason hasn’t been favoured at the beginning of the season. Torreira has played just 140 minutes at the start of this campaign, with only 1 start, and even when he has played, it’s been in a more advanced position than we’re used to seeing him. While he has been solid as a box-to-box midfielder due to his extreme energy, you feel that this workrate is more necessary in front of the defence, where he can mop up the play when it bypasses the more forward thinking midfielders. Given that he is one of their most competent technical midfielders, you would want him to play deeper, so that he can help to fix what is a real problem area for them at the moment. Torreira’s 4.5 tackles and interceptions per 90 is the best in the Arsenal squad this season, and someone with his industrial ability could help to fix the squad. The addition of someone like Torreira could also help Guendouzi flourish. Guendouzi has been superb at the start of this campaign, and along with Aubameyang, has probably been the stand-out performer. However, when Xhaka is playing the holding midfield role, Guendouzi is often forced into a deeper position in order to cover for his defensive flaws. With Torreira in the squad, Guendouzi can focus on progressing his side up the field with his passing. Guendouzi is currently making 61 passes per match, which is the second highest in the squad, behind only Granit Xhaka, and if Xhaka were to be left out of this game, Guendouzi would be the perfect player to take over his ball progression.

Like mentioned earlier, Manchester United are currently going through a number of costly injury problems, many of which could greatly affect them in this match. Starting in defence, United will be missing a significant amount of squad players, and although most of their usual starters should be fit, the inability to rotate could cause them some problems. Bailly, Jones, Dalot and Shaw, are all among those injured. Where United will really be struggling is in the forward areas. Recent news is that Martial and Rashford are both unlikely to return for this game while Pogba could also be ruled out due to an ankle injury. This is awful for United, as without these players the side is really lacking creativity. Having already struggled in this area, they could find it even harder in this match to break down their opposition and create chances for their forwards. Arsenal have a much different injury status to United, as while they have been enduring problems in the first few weeks of the season, they are starting to see players coming back to full fitness. Their defence should receive a massive boost in this match with Bellerin, Tierney and Holding all recently returning from long term issues and the full-backs especially should help to make Arsenal more secure at the back. While this is all great news to Arsenal, one problem that they will have is the absence of Lacazette. Lacazette has missed the last three league games due to an ankle injury which is predicted to keep him on the sidelines until late October. While Arsenal have the likes of Aubameyang and Pepe who can play up front, Lacazette provides a much different option, and one that could have been useful against a sturdy defensive side.

While each team has positives to take out of their opening fixtures, there are glaring issues facing the sides, either due to injuries or the lack of quality in certain positions. Manchester United have clearly been better in defence to start the season while Arsenal have shone in attack. This means that the teams have opposing strengths at the moment, which could lay out an interesting plot for this game. While United will most likely dominate the game in terms of possession (at their home ground) they could struggle to create an end product just like in the last few matches. Their lack of creativity is apparent while their finishing has also been poor.This could give Arsenal the chance to thrive on counter-attacking opportunities, where they’re most likely at their strongest. While these sides each average around 55% possession per game, we’ve seen Arsenal sit back when playing against the bigger sides before, and this could be expected yet again considering how ineffective United will be in attack. United desperately need this win, when playing at home against a direct top 4 rival, but given their injury issues in attack, and their lack of cover in that area, it doesn’t look like it will happen. In my opinion, Arsenal will be able to defend deep and take a couple of points off of the home side. I predict 1-1; a result that neither side will be overly pleased with.