GW 7: Bournemouth vs. West Ham

The new Premier League season is now thoroughly underway, with 6 matchweeks gone, and with more clarity amongst teams and their positions starting to appear, two teams that have emerged near the top of the table are Bournemouth and West Ham. These sides are set to face in matchweek 7, in what should be an engrossing and revealing fixture that could potentially clarify which of these teams is more deservant of their strong start to the campaign. At the moment, Both of these sides are currently above the likes of Tottenham, Manchester United and Chelsea who have endured poor results lately, and this means that this match could have an impact on the race for a top 6 spot. With West Ham in 5th and Bournemouth in 6th with 10 and 11 points respectively, both teams seem to be improving on past campaigns. When these sides faced last year, Bournemouth dominated proceedings, despite finishing in a lower position come the end of the season. Bournemouth won both of last season’s Premier League games between them, 2-1 when away and 2-0 at home. These wins were achieved largely due to the clinical ability of their front line, as on both occasions, expected goals shows that the sides should have drawn based on the chances created. Callum Wilson was particularly effective, scoring 1 goal in each game despite only managing a combined 0.76 expected goals. 

Yet again, Bournemouth look like a strong attacking side, and their success so far has been down to their consistency in attacking areas. Bournemouth have scored 11 goals up to this point, which is the joint 5th in the division but their strong attacking play has often been counteracted by their poor defensive organization. Similarly to last season, they have struggled defensively. They have conceded 10 goals in the opening 6 matches, the joint 5th worst in the division, while expected goals estimates that this could be even worse. They are conceding 16.8 shots per game, which is the 4th worst in the league, while the shots that they are conceding are from dangerous areas as well, with 12.30 expected goals against, the second highest. However, based on the strong results that they have been managing, their poor defensive record could be a systematic choice in ways. It seems Eddie Howe has realized his sides attacking potential, and therefore has tried to take advantage of this strength by focusing on this aspect. This could be seen even against Manchester City, in a game in which they created a large amount of high-quality chances choosing to risk defensive security in order to do so. West Ham are a team similar to Bournemouth, in that they like to attack over defend, and it will be interesting to see which team gets caught out.

One player who has benefitted recently from Bournemouth’s free-flowing style of play, is Liverpool loanee Harry Wilson. The young Welsh talent has slotted in brilliantly, and already has 3 goals to his name, playing in a variety of positions. He’s been preferred as the right-sided midfield player by Howe, where he has excelled at coming into the middle to get on the end of chances. However, Wilson has replaced Fraser in the lineup over the last couple matches.  While Wilson’s goalscoring output has been great, his creative abilities are far inferior to that of the Scotsmen. Wilson has been averaging 0.9 key passes per 90 this season, while Fraser was almost tripling that at 2.6 in the previous campaign. This shows that if Wilson wants to keep this starting role, he will have to add more creativity to his game and perhaps more progression as well, so that he can contribute further to Bournemouth’s counter-attacking threat. Considering the way Bournemouth are currently playing, there is a lack of progression in the side. This is backed up by expected goals which notes that Bournemouth should have just about 8 goals, compared to the 11 that they have actually managed. This bridge between midfield and attack could be formed by Phillip Billing, who has shown great signs of this already. Billing is averaging 0.7 key passes per 90 this season from a relatively deep position while he even grabbed an assist in the last match. as well as this, he is completing 1 dribble per game showing that he has the ability to progress the play from deep. If he furthers this, he can become the link between Bournemouth’s midfield and attack, which is currently quite non-existent given how many central strikers they have been playing with. 

West Ham, like Bournemouth set up with a very attacking system; however, there are a number of systematic differences in the ways the sides play. Whereas Bournemouth are focused on quick, counter-attacking stints, West Ham play with more control over the ball, and when attacking they tend to do so for longer periods of time. West Ham have kept an average of 47.4% possession in the league, far more than Bournemouth’s 42.4%, and given that they have played against sides such as Manchester City and Manchester United, this possession count isn’t low. In their last match, against Manchester United, they managed to achieve a superb result. The final score was 2-0 in their favour; however, they can count themselves quite lucky to have won this, as for much of the game they were the inferior side. Their finishing though was what brought them through the game, with two superb goals making the difference for the Hammers. Against Bournemouth though, they should expect to create the majority of the chances. While Bournemouth are strong in attack, West Ham are the better all-round side, and it might be best for them to focus on shutting out the opposition. As mentioned, Bournemouth play primarily on the counter-attack meaning that West Ham will have to be careful when attacking their opponents goal. This could include bringing the full-backs more centrally to provide defensive cover while cutting off passing lanes to the strikers.

With the quality of West Ham’s attackers, they can afford to do this, and play slightly more conservatively. This will, however, require strong individual performances from a number of their attacking players. Also, creativity from these players will need to increase if they are to lose the outlet of their full-backs. This will make Felipe Anderson more important than ever. Anderson has started the season well with 2 assists to his name in 5 games, but it’s his underlying numbers that show how crucial he is to the side. So far, Anderson is averaging 1.8 shots per game as well as 1.8 key passes and 2.4 dribbles showing that he is a very well-rounded attacker. These stats show that he could be perfect for the role that he could have to play, as more of a progressor, feeding the ball into more advanced players and taking responsibility for the full-backs if they drop back. Sebastian Haller up front could also work in a similar way. Like Anderson, Haller is one of the most well-rounded forwards in the league. He is a great finisher, but more importantly, he brings his teammates into the game with his creativity and holdup play. Another thing that both of these players have in common is their defensive work rate. They have each been averaging 3.4 tackles and interceptions per match when playing in the league this season, great numbers for forwards, and this can really help to limit Bournemouth’s playing style. Bournemouth will look to play on the break and push quickly out from their defence. However, with players like Haller and Anderson pressuring them from the front, they won’t be able to play it out from the back at a high pace, and West Ham will have time to organize their defence.

At the moment, Bournemouth are struggling pretty extensively with injuries; however, the injuries that they are currently suffering are mostly long term issues that have been around for some time now. Given how well that they have been playing in the league, perhaps they can work around these issues, as Eddie Howe seems to be fine with the squad that he currently has at his disposal. Saying this, considering Bournemouth’s cup game on Wednesday, their lack of squad depth certainly won’t help. Without the option of rotation in certain areas, Bournemouth could be faced with fitness issues come Saturday, and will have a disadvantage against West Ham, who also play on Wednesday. The Hammers are faring much better in terms of their squad fitness and depth at the moment. However, a few small problems have come up recently involving some of West Ham’s key performers. Fredericks picked up a knock against Manchester United which makes him a doubt for this game, while even more worryingly, Lanzini could potentially miss the match with a foot injury. Lanzini has been one of West Ham’s brightest players at the beginning of this season, and given his injury-prone past, they won’t want him on the sideline for very long. Luckily, this injury doesn’t seem to be a major issue, and it’s still likely that he plays in this upcoming game.

Also, although West Ham will be the away side in this match, they’ll be confident given their recent form. When away in the Premier League, West Ham are undefeated this season with 2 draws and 1 win. Along with this, Bournemouth have actually started the season with a relatively poor home record, winning just 1, while gaining 4 points in the process. To put this in perspective, Bourenmouth have the 14th worst home record at this stage in the season, and while we’re early into the new campaign, there are no signs that the Vitality Stadium will become a fortress for it’s club. To add further confidence to West Ham, they have been incredibly consistent at the start of the season and they are actually undefeated in 9 of their last 10 Premier League matches. There only loss within this period came against the mighty Manchester City. West Ham have also kept clean sheets in each of their last three Premier League matches and have conceded just 7 so far, despite losing 5-0 to City on the opening weekend. When looking at Bournemouth’s numbers, they are far less impressive and although they have managed strong results so far, West Ham look the more complete team, with much more potential for consistency over the course of the season. While Bournemouth’s ability to seize opportunities could help to make this a more even and interesting match, the individual quality as well as the quality of manager at West Ham should be enough to grab all three points. Although it will be close, I predict a 2-1 away win for the Hammers.