GW 6: Leicester vs. Tottenham

With another Premier League week gone by, it’s time to look forward matchweek 6 of the new Premier League campaign, in which Leicester face Tottenham on Saturday. This match in particular is set to be incredibly important, as both sides taking part will be battling for spots in the top 6, as well as possibly the top 4. At the moment, they have 8 points a piece, showing that they have started the season in similar form, which should make this match even more entertaining with the sides more even than ever. Last season Tottenham were victorious in both matches involving these sides, winning 3-1 at home and 2-0 away. However, the underlying numbers from these matches show that Leicester were often the better side, and particularly in their most recent matchup, in which Tottenham were the home side, Leicester deserved far more than the scoreline warranted. In this match Leicester took 20 shots to Spurs’ 12 with 9 coming on target compared to 5, and expected goals clearly outlines Leicester’s dominance, with the metric predicting a 3.02 to 1.21 result in Leicester’s favour, which was the opposite of what really occurred. With the gap between the sides closing though, this could change. Leicester have brought their game to a new level this year and it looks like they might finally be able to compete with the big boys consistently. Also, with Spurs’ quality of finishing seemingly growing weaker, the result we see might be more reflective of the match itself.

This season Leicester seemingly have a big chance to get back into the top 6, due to a number of the big clubs struggling, and at the moment they seem to be taking their opportunity. They haven’t started the season tremendously but they’ve been lucky in that almost every team in the league is enduring a mixed bag of results. This has seen them climb ahead of teams like Arsenal and Chelsea, while other top 6 contenders in Wolves and Everton have had dreadful starts to the campaign. They will need to improve though, as you would expect form to rise across the Premier League table. While Leicester have been defensively solid, as they have the second best defensive record according to expected goals, their creativity has been lacklustre and they just aren’t creating enough for a side who want to break into that elite category. With just 4.89 expected goals so far this campaign, they rank 16th in this metric, and on three separate occasions they have managed less than 1 expected goal. Now, after struggling in their last match when facing difficult opposition, Brendan Rodgers will need to change is attacking approach in order to get the best out of what is a very talented squad. At the moment, Leicester are struggling from a lack of creativity from the wide areas. While full-backs Chilwell and Pereria both pose attacking threats, the lack of out and out wingers in recent games has meant that it’s easy for opponents to nullify attacks from the flanks. In their last match, Maddison and Perez were both used as wingers, which is something that Rodgers has experimented with at the beginning of this season; however, this needs to change, as both of these players want to come centrally, which limits Leicester’s attacking options.

Rodgers will definitely want to bring in some more traditional wingers for this game, which could open up a spot for young Harvey Barnes. Barnes has only started once this season but was an integral part of the squad towards the backend of last season, and while he hasn’t been involved quite so frequently this year, you would expect Rodgers to resort to him in this game. His numbers last year were outstanding, as he was taking 3.6 shots per 90 as well as completing 2.7 dribbles and making 1.5 key passes. He was arguably their most productive player at various points in the previous campaign, and while he was wasteful at some points, his ability to drive his team forwards as well as generate a large number of shots could be crucial for a side who are struggling in these areas. One thing that Barnes will have to be careful of when playing in this position is that he doesn't roam into Maddison’s space. Maddison does like to play in an advanced midfield role, and usually towards the left side, which could act as a disadvantage for them. However, if they use this link-iup effectively, they could look to overload in that area of the pitch, which could potentially free one of them, or drag Spurs’s defenders in, in order to create space in other areas of the field.

Spurs have also been struggling with creativity in a few of their games this season, and like Leicester, this is what has cost them points that they should really have won. Their most recent game; however, saw them win 4-0 against Crystal Palace in spectacular style. In this game, as well as in their game against Arsenal, Pochetinho implemented a change in tactics from what he was doing in the first few games, and this seems to have worked to great effect. They have now moved to a 4-2-2-2 formation from the 4-2-3-1 that was favoured by Pochetinho in the beginning, and while this has provided a clear improvement, they still are yet to obliterate their biggest issue. Against Newcastle, the problem of overcrowding in central attacking areas cost them all three points and although they have managed decent results in their last couple games, this problem is still there and they will struggle to break down strong defensive sides if this continues. When playing with a 4-2-2-2, they have four players who constantly want to play in an around the central attacking area of the field, and while it can be helpful to overload areas at certain points within matches, when constantly doing this you limit your options while using the space ineffectively. Over the course of the season, this must be fixed, and Pochetinho needs to come up with an efficient system in which this isn’t necessary. This could involve dropping Eriksen into a deeper position or giving someone like Moura a more disciplined position in which they are forced to stay wide.

Pochetinho might not change things up for this match though, as for now, this tactic is obtaining results and the main reason for this is Son. Son started slowly against Newcastle, and wasn’t brilliant against Arsenal either, but in the most recent game against Palace, he showed his importance to the squad. It’s Son’s elaborate runs that are allowing for this current system to work, as while he too likes to play in that central attacking position, he is the only player in the squad who is making a variety of runs off the ball, which in turn gives the other players a different option. In the last game he scored one goal in which he was coming from the right and one in which he was coming from the left, and this diversity was what gave Tottenham an extra edge. Another player who has come into form at the beginning of this season is Eric Lamela. Lamela has got 2 goals and 1 assist already this season and he is finally starting to get the consistent minutes that have always evaded him during his time at Spurs. He offers a slightly different option to Spurs’ other forwards, as while he too likes to come inside and play centrally, he drops off more frequently in order to create space. Also, he plays wider than these other players, meaning he should be able to avoid the crowd of defenders better, and find a space in which to create from.

At the moment, Tottenham do have a bit of an injury crisis, especially when you consider how healthy Leicester’s squad currently looks. Leicester shouldn’t be missing a single first team member in this match, which will provide them with a massive advantage over their opponents. Spurs on the other hand, could be missing as many as five players with Sanchez, Foyth, Walker-Peters, Sessegnon, and Lo Celso coming back from issues of varying degrees of seriousness. Out of these five, only Foyth and Lo Celso are bound to miss the game for sure while the other three could still make it back. This could leave Spurs with very limited options in defence, with players like Vertonghen and Aurier, who Pochetinho hasn’t favoured recently, potentially having to start. Along with this, Lo Celso will be a big miss in midfield, as although he didn’t have enough time to settle into the squad before he picked up a hip problem, signs of promise were there and if anything, he could have been a good differential on the bench. Another thing to consider is Spurs’ Champions League campaign. Tottenham play Olympiakos on Wednesday for matchweek one of the new Champions League season, and this could cause some players to be low on fitness come Saturday, just three days after this match. With all of this combined, Tottenham could be coming into the game with a weakened squad, and given how these sides have been even so far in the league, Leicester might just be favourites to win this match now.

Along with this, Leicester will be the home side in the game. This is another thing that will be going against Tottenham in this match and while Leicester are unbeaten at home in the new campaign, It’s Spurs’ away form that will ring alarm bells in Pochetinho’s head. Tottenham have now failed to win in each of their last 8 away games, which includes 2 draws at the beginning of this year, and this spectacularly bad form is not what they would be hoping for when coming into such a difficult game. Also, while both of their opening away games this season have been against sides in the top 6, expected goals shows that they have been dominated when on the road, with 3 expected goals for them and 5.16 for their opposition. This means that Leicester should be confident when coming into this match, and rather then packing it in defensively like they have been at the beginning of the season they should look to attack the match. Rodgers should look to place more faith in his defence and play a more attacking brand of football. However, the way that Leicester are starting the season, they just don’t look like they have the quality or attacking force to beat a top 6 side and due to the decent results they have managed, Rodgers might not make a big change to his system. Even though Tottenham will be weak in this match, players like Son and Kane always of the ability to create goals out of nothing and for this reason I’m predicting a 1-1 draw, and realistically, another disappointing result for both teams, and a missed opportunity for Leicester.