GW 6: Chelsea vs. Liverpool

After midweek Champions League action, in which English sides fared very poorly as a whole, we return to domestic Premier League competition, in which two Champions League sides, Chelsea and Liverpool, will face each other on Sunday. These sides have enjoyed very different starts to the Premier League season, and at the moment there is a 7 point gap between them. This comes after an opening period in which Liverpool have won five from five, while Chelsea have looked less confident, with only two wins to their name. However, Chelsea do have that touch of individual quality which makes them dangerous to any team. This was shown during the last time that these teams faced, which was earlier in the season, in the Super Cup final. The teams drew 2-2 in what was quite an even game, and the match had to be settled during penalties with Liverpool coming out victorious. This is a common trend of what we have seen over the past few years as in the last six matches between the sides, four of which have come in the Premier League, each side has won twice. Although there is a clear gap growing between the two teams, with Liverpool’s recent rise into the elite category, Chelsea always have that extra edge that many of the sides in and around the top half of the table lack.

Like mentioned, Chelsea haven’t had a great start to the season, as the side are still getting used to Frank Lampard’s style of play, and the new feel around the club. There are signs of improvement though, especially over their last couple league matches. Chelsea’s only loss in this season’s Premier League came against Manchester United on matchweek one, and from then on, they have managed wins against both Norwich and Wolves, while drawing with Leicester, all of whom are solid opposition. Their last match, against Wolves, highlighted how they have started the campaign as they won 5-2, an incredible attacking display interlaced with lapses in concentration which cost them defensively. Chelsea currently have the third best attack in the league with 9.59 expected goals, only bettered by Liverpool and City. However, they have conceded an astonishing 11, which is the second worst in the division. Expected goals reckons that they have been unlucky defensively though. Chelsea have only conceded 6.94 expected goals, which is around mid-table, and this suggests that Frank Lampard has less defensive work to do then the stats might suggest. Interestingly, Chelsea lined up with a three at the back in their last game and this could be employed again given the success that they obtained with it. Also, this could help to limit the numerous attacking threats that Liverpool pose in central positions.

This formation could, however, put an extended amount of pressure on the midfield, and Mason Mount will be important in doing his duties both offensively and defensively. Mount has started the season strongly as a dynamic attacking midfielder, but he might have to change his role slightly when playing against a bigger side. When Chelsea played in a 3-4-2-1, Mount shone, and it will be interesting to see how he adapts his game to face a different challenge. This could include playing more centrally, and pressuring Liverpool defensive midfielder Fabinho in order to disrupt Liverpool’s possession playing style that they seem to favour in the Premier League. Also, while he has often been more advanced than main striker Tammy Abraham at times, Mount will want to drop deep in order to limit Liverpool’s attacking threat while getting in good positions to initiate counter-attacks. The aforementioned Abraham is another young player who has been in superb form for Lampard’s new-look side. Abraham has scored 7 so far, meaning he is the joint top goalscorer in the league, and he has scored two or more goals in each of his last three matches. This goal tally means that he is quickly becoming the talisman of this Chelsea side. Abraham also contributes heavily on the defensive end. Although he may not directly be involved in ball retention, he often gets back to support the rest of the side, and his positional play this year has been outstanding. This, of course, will be important against a side who like to play out from the back, as his pressure could cause his team to win the ball back more frequently.

Liverpool; however, have looked assured in every area at the beginning of this season, while they have been by far the strongest team in the division. Their clinical ability is superb, and their resilience to gain positive results even when not at their best is what has led them to 1st place so far, having gained all possible points. Along with this, they have the second highest expected goals in the league, and the third lowest expected goals conceded, meaning they are well worth their outstanding results. In their last game, it was business as usual for the Reds, as they won 3-1 against Newcastle, limiting their opponents to just one 1 shot on target and 0.29 expected goals. Their upcoming match; however, will provide a much different challenge against a much better side, particularly in attack, and this could cause a change in play. Chelsea’s 3-4-2-1 seems very solid but there are a few clear weaknesses that Liverpool can take advantage of. The big thing to notice is the lack of cover in midfield. If Chelsea do go with this formation, they will have only two designated central midfielders, and although Mason Mount can provide some cover in front of them, this area is still very thin. Liverpool should have three players in that area at all times when using their regular 4-3-3 but they could look to further their advantage by having the wingers drop in at various points.

This will mean that Salah, who is always a crucial member of Klopp’s side, could be more prominent than ever when playing against his former club. Salah has yet again started a season is tremendous form with 4 goals and 1 assist to his name already. He’ll be up against the attacking left wing-back Marcos Alonso meaning he could find even more chances than usual. Also, considering Chelsea like to keep possession of the ball, Salah might be able to find his space on the break, when Alonso is caught roaming forwards. When Liverpool have possession though, Salah will have to play a very different role. In this case he will want to act as more of an instigator, dropping deeper and more centrally to collect the ball before linking up with Liverpool’s other forwards as they so often do. This will also leave a vital role for Firmino, as the two could have very similar jobs in these circumstances. Firmino, even more so than Salah, can help Liverpool to overrun Chelsea’s midfield, as when he drops deep there could be as many as four Liverpool players on the two Chelsea midfielders. Also, this will leave one of Chelsea’s defenders without a man to mark; therefore limiting the efficiency of the Chelsea defence as a whole. If Salah and Firmino do manage to link up effectively, as we’ve seen time and time again in the past, they should be able to create an obscene amount of chances, and both of these attacking players can help to make the most of Chelsea’s systematic flaws.

Some of the issues that Chelsea might be facing are due to the worrying injury problems that are currently confronting the side. With the likes of Rudiger, Emerson, James, Kante, Loftus-Cheek, Hudson-Odoi, and now Mount as well potentially missing the game, the circumstances are dire and Lampard definitely won’t be able to put his best side out on the field. The biggest miss for this game will obviously be Kante. When Chelsea played Liverpool in the Super Cup final, Kante was easily the man of the match, and especially when playing with the 3-4-2-1 formation, someone who is able to cover a large amount of ground in midfield is a must have. Also, the absence of Rudiger at the back could be very costly, as it means Chelsea will have to play with a very young and unproven defensive line; not what you want when facing a side of Liverpool’s power. Other worrying areas include left-back and attacking midfield, as although Lampard does have capable back-ups in these areas, these small downgrades all across the field could have big impacts on the way his side play. Liverpool on the other hand, should have a very fit squad for this game, with more players returning to action shortly. While both Alisson and Origi are still expected to miss this match, they are set to return within the next few weeks which is great news for the Reds. Keita is also a slight doubt for this game, but it’s rumoured that he returned to full training on Friday. If Keita were to get a chance in this game, he could be effective, as he is quite an attacking midfielder, and he could be used to exploit the space in and around Chelsea’s midfield.

All of this news will just bring more confidence to a Liverpool side who are already performing brilliantly in the league. Although their midweek Champions League blip might have brought them down slightly, they have had four days to rest and prepare, and they’ll be excited to be back in England. However, this match won’t be played at Anfield. For this game Liverpool will have to travel to Stamford Bridge, which is always a difficult place to go, even if Chelsea aren’t playing their best football there at the moment. In Chelsea’s two home games this season, they have drawn twice; however, last season they managed 42 of their 72 points when playing in front of their home fans, a whopping 58.3%. Playing against such a massive side, it would be the perfect game for them to achieve their first home win of the campaign, as it would get them off the mark and give them a boost for their upcoming home matches. However, Liverpool have won in each of their last 14 Premier League matches and this recent consistency from the Reds will be frightening for this Chelsea side. Also, given the injuries that they have sustained recently, it would be impressive for them to get anything more than a loss at the hands of one of the best sides in world football at the moment. For this reason, I believe Liverpool will win 2-1, carrying on with their 100% start to the season.