GW 5: Wolves vs. Chelsea

The first few weeks of the new Premier League season have been eye-opening, and we’d expect that to continue in matchweek five, as the fight for a spot in the top 6 could be further illustrated. There are two crucial fixtures that should affect this area of the table, as Manchester United play Leicester while Wolves face Chelsea, both on Saturday. The main focus could be around Wolves and Chelsea though, as Manchester United are largely expected to finish within the top 6, while both Wolves and Chelsea will be battling with Leicester for that final spot, and also 7th place, which would give them a place in Europa League qualifying. Neither team have started at their best, and Leicester look far superior to both sides that will be featuring in this match, as Chelsea have just 5 points while Wolves have been especially bad, as they’re without a win having only managed 3 points. While both sides have been poor in the opening few weeks, this could prove a positive for the neutral, as the match might be even more tense than it has been over recent years while it is more of a must win than ever. Last season Wolves were the better side in this fixture, which is part of an overall trend of their performances against the bigger sides. They managed to win one and draw one against the Blues with both matches being very evenly contested. However, Chelsea actually performed better in terms of the underlying numbers, and now that Wolves seem to have lost some of their clinical edge, we could see a different result in this match.

Wolves have started their season in incredibly disappointing style as they haven’t been getting the results that they need, while they’ve showed no signs of improving on their form either. As always, Wolves have been quite solid defensively, as Nuno Espirito Santo prides himself on setting up an organized defensive system, but in attack, they have looked uninspiring to say the least. They have managed just 4.45 expected goals so far which is the 6th worst in the division, and their lack of creativity has harmed them this year in a way that it didn’t in the previous campaign. This is largely due to a decrease in the quality of their finishing. Last year they were similarly poor in the build-up but they still managed to find the back of the net at a decent rate whereas this year they have seemed less sharp in attack. Another factor of their recent decline is how predictable they have become, as they have set up in the same way that they did last year, and now that teams know how the attackers are going to play, it is easier to man mark them out of the game and limit their options. This could push Santo to move back to the 3-4-3 formation. He started with this formation last season, and he might want to bring it back as this will provide more attacking outlets, as well as a different option for his team that could potentially catch opposition off guard. This could also allow the wing-backs to get forward more frequently, as they’ll be able to overlap in front of the wingers in order to put the ball into the box and cause problems. If Wolves were to use a 3-4-3, they could potentially use their right-winger as more of an attacking midfielder, who can drop in and do creative work and create a hybrid between a 3-4-3 and 3-5-2.

A player who could suit this role perfectly is Pedro Neto who was brought in this summer from Lazio, and who has impressed in the few appearances that he has made. The 19 year old has played just 33 minutes in the Premier League this year, but from the short cameos that he has made he looks to be a great young player who could be perfectly suited to this match. He’s very quick, while he also seems to have decent creative traits, and he could use these abilities to take advantage of the fact that Chelsea play with an advanced midfielder on the left-hand side of midfield. If he drops deep, he can exploit the space in behind this midfielder and open up the game for Wolves. From this position, he will have more freedom from which he can create for his strike partners or perhaps make a chance of his own through his pace. Also, if Moutinho were to play as the right-sided central midfielder for Wolves, they could look to create an overload in that area of the field, on the right wing, drawing the Chelsea players in towards the ball before perhaps switching the play over to the left wing. Adama Traore could also be very important in this if he is yet again slotted in at right wing-back. Traore is a very attack-minded player and he always wants to get in behind his defender, and this sort of thinking could be important in this match. When Neto drops off, Traore can then make a run into the space that Neto has left, which could in turn leave him in a very advantageous position in behind his marker while also furthering the pressure on the right hand side of the field. With this interchanging, Traore could often find himself in positions of threat, where he is at his best, and he can both create for his teammates or fashion an opportunity for himself through his superb dribbling.

Exploiting Chelsea’s defence will definitely be an easier task than it would’ve been in previous seasons as this year, Lampard has not managed to create a coherent defensive unit as of yet. This has clearly reflected on their results. They haven’t managed a single clean sheet so far while they have conceded a total of 9 goals, the 2nd worst in the division, which has lead to a mere one win in their first four games. They have been quite unlucky though, and expected goals says that they should have conceded just 5.45 goals, which puts them around the middle of the pack. In attack, they seem much better, having scored 6 goals so far which, yet again, is worse than their expected goals score of 6.52, and at the moment, they are facing the opposite of what Wolves are going through, as they have an exciting attack but a leaky defence. Defensively, it might be best for Chelsea to use a 4-2-3-1. Recently, they have been using a 4-3-3 which has seemed like their more effective formation, and they might be right to continue with this if Wolves use a 3-5-2. However, if Wolves do decide to switch to a 3-4-3, a shift in the midfield could be helpful. A 4-2-3-1 would allow more midfield space to be covered, while the left-sided defensive midfielder would be able to drop in and cover the space that Neto would be wanting to occupy. The attacking midfielder can then put pressure on Ruben Neves at the base of midfield, and overall, Chelsea will have a stronger shield in front of their vulnerable backline.

Also, when Chelsea get on the attack or win the ball back in their half, they can shift back to a 4-3-3, with the attacking midfielder moving left and the right-sided defensive midfielder moving right in order to open up the field. The player who will most likely be employed as the attacking midfielder is Mason Mount, who has started the season in great style, exceeding all expectations placed on him at the beginning of the campaign. Mount could be very important in the transition for Chelsea as well as in their final third play, as he has already demonstrated extreme maturity for his age, playing in a number of roles for Lampard’s side. His stats from the opening few games have been incredible, as he is making 2 key passes per match as well as 1.5 dribbles which can be used to progress Chelsea up the field. If Chelsea are defending within their own half, Mount can put pressure on the Wolves centre-midfielders and potentially recover the ball and initiate counter-attacks. Also, if his teammates win the ball from deeper areas, you would expect that they would shift the ball onto Mount, as with the numbers that he has been displaying, it makes sense for him to act as the main progressor. Chelsea might find more problems at the base of their midfield. At the moment, Kante is injured and it’s unknown whether or not he will return, while Kovacic also has a small achilles injury. This leaves a lot of pressure on Italian central midfielder Jorginho, who has come under scrutiny during his time at Chelsea but might be their only hope for this match. Jorginho is an incredible passer of the ball but when playing in a two, at the base of midfield, he has often struggled, and this could be a weak spot for Chelsea in this match unless they bring an adept defensive player in alongside him or Kante comes back to full fitness.

As just mentioned, Chelsea are facing a number of worrying injury problems; however, Wolves have their fair share as well, and it looks like both sides could be struggling to put out their strongest starting elevens. Wolves will be missing Boly through suspension as well as Doherty due to a knee injury in this game, who are two of their main starters, who play in almost every match. Luckily for Nuno Espirito Santo, he has a number of capable back-ups who can play in these areas, and you would expect him to replace Doherty with the aforementioned Adama Traore while new arrival Vallejo would likely come in at centre-back to replace Boly. This squad depth that Wolves have is the main advantage that they have over Chelsea. Chelsea, like Wolves, have a few crucial players who could be missing such as Rudiger, Kante, Kovacic and Emerson; however, they don’t have adequate replacements meaning these injuries will do more harm to their squad. Luckily for Chelsea, not all of these injuries are serious, with players such as Emerson and Kovacic expected to be back for this match. However, players like Kante and Rudiger are so crucial to the Chelsea squad, especially defensively, and if they were to be absent, it would be much easier for Wolves to penetrate through the midfield and backline.

Wolves will definitely need to make the most of this small advantage that they have, given how poor they have been at the start of this campaign but they will also be the home side in this game, which will provide another positive for them. Wolves are yet to lose a home game this season, having drawn 1-1 in each home game they have played so far, and they are actually unbeaten in their last 10 home games in the Premier League, showing how solid they are when at Molineux. Much of this is down to their defensive performances as they conceded 21 goals in 19 home games last year, and their defensive consistency in front of their own fans is seemingly set to continue this season. Wolves’ defensive solidity is what will make this game interesting. Chelsea have proven themselves as an adept attacking side, like mentioned earlier, meaning that the teams’ strengths will clash, with Chelsea’s strong attack going head to head with Wolves’ strong defence, while on the other end of the pitch, Wolves will have the chance to turn over their poor attacking form against a side who have conceded a lot recently. You would expect that Chelsea would dominate this game in terms of possession, and therefore, Wolves might want to take a similar approach to the one that Manchester United took in gameweek one, playing on the break with Neves acting as the deep-lying playmaker like Pogba did. However, Wolves just don’t look capable of beating another top 6 opponent at the moment with such low levels of creativity. This is why I’m predicting another 1-1 home draw, with neither side getting what they want.