GW 5: Manchester United vs. Leicester

The 2019/20 Premier League season is now thoroughly underway after four matchweeks and the first international break, and we now move on to matchweek five, in which the blockbuster fixture is Manchester United against Leicester. Although in recent years these sides have often been of a different level, the bridge between the top 6 and the clubs just outside of it is becoming increasingly smaller, and this season it’s largely expected that at least one of the second tier clubs will push on into that elite category. Leicester have outperformed all of the other candidates for this spot so far, after taking 8 points from the opening 4 matches, which is 3 better than United while they are also 5 places ahead of the Red Devils who, of course, are their upcoming opponents. It’s still very early on in the season though, and while United aren’t currently at their best, this game could potentially give them a lift and get them back on track if they do manage to beat the Foxes. This will be no easy task; however, United were victorious in both of the Premier League games that they played against Leicester last year, which will give them confidence coming into this game. Both previous matches were evenly contested with United coming out on top with a 2-1 scoreline at Old Trafford while it was 1-0 at the King Power Stadium as they managed to win by one on each occasion. This will definitely be seen as a positive for United but given the start to the season that Leicester have had, they seem a stronger proposition than they were last campaign.

United have had a relatively poor start to the season in terms of the results that they have managed, having won only once, which came at the start of the season against Chelsea. Since then, they have drawn with Wolves and Southampton while they lost to Crystal Palace, all in very disappointing performances; however, when you look into the underlying numbers from these games you can see that they haven’t been as bad as their results suggest. Expected goals shows that they should have only conceded about 3 goals with 2.85 expected goals against which is the best in the league at the moment, and while they have been limiting their opposition to very few chances, they have been unlucky to have been on the receiving end off some good finishing. They also have the 4th best expected goals tally in the league with 7.65 which is only 0.08 off Liverpool who have scored 5 goals more than them. All of this shows that they are actually doing the right things at the moment while they have been playing well, and although there could be a few small tweaks in order for them to intensify their dominance even further, their failure so far has largely been down to finishing, which has been weak from their perspective. Another problem that we saw during the Southampton game was the lack of a central attacking presence in and around the striker, and this was largely because of the absence of Martial. When Martial is playing, him and Rashford interchange or drop in, and therefore create more of a threat around the box which helps United to create even more chances and higher quality chances as well.

Unfortunately for United, it isn’t certain that Martial will be back for this match, even after a week long break from club football, and this could put a lot of pressure on Daniel James to fill in on that left hand side and do a similar job that Rashford was doing prior to Martial’s injury. This means he will have to come inside more frequently, almost into an attacking midfield role at times, in order to escape the pressure from Leicester right-back Pereira while also supporting Marcus Rashford and allowing him to play with more mobility. James will want to find a position in between right-back Ricardo Pereira and defensive midfielder Wilfried Ndidi as this will give him time on the ball and possibly even force Youri Tielmans to drop into a deeper position which could in turn leave Paul Pogba open. Pogba has played in a slightly deeper role in a few of the opening games; however, this might want to be changed here, as if he plays just in behind Daniel James as well as the attacking midfielder, he could put pressure on the Leicester midfield and cause an overload in that area. Pogba has started the season averaging 0.54 expected goals and assists per 90 which is quite high considering the deep lying play-maker role that he is being employed in, and surprisingly, this is split half-half between expected goals and expected assists. This means that if he has license to get forward even more frequently, and if he can successfully exploit the space either in front of the midfield line or in behind Tielemans, this number should rise and it wouldn’t be unlikely that he score a goal or two.

This shouldn’t be easy though, as Leicester have started the season in superb style and they look solid in all areas of play, and they seem like one of the most well-rounded sides in the division. They are unbeaten after 4 matches having drawn against both Wolves and Chelsea while they did the business against Sheffield United and Bournemouth as they have looked incredibly consistent to start the campaign which is crucial if they want to break into the top 6 by the end of the season. Somewhat surprisingly, Leicester have actually struggled slightly to create chances this season with 4.01 expected goals after the first four matches, and now that they are coming up against a team whose underlying defensive numbers are strong, they might have to improve on their attacking play. In the past couple of games they have been relying on the elite finishing of Vardy but as we saw in the first two games, in which they faced stronger opposition, Vardy’s chances were limited and he didn’t manage to score. Crucially, in their game against Chelsea, Vardy managed just 0.05 expected goals through a mere 1 shot, and although their were a few quality chances that were taken by other players, Vardy will need more service in this game if Leicester are to succeed offensively. Leicester will most likely be looking to play on the break in this game, and this means that Rodgers should focus his defensive formation on not only winning the ball back but also making sure that it suits a counter-attacking style. One way to do this would be to bring Ayoze Perez back into the squad and play him in between Leicester’s midfield line and Vardy in order to get the ball into deeper areas; however, given his form at the start of the season this seems unlikely. Perhaps the better option would be to free Maddison of some of his defensive duties or at least play him higher up the pitch so that he can receive the ball and act in the transition.

Maddison has played as both a left-winger and an advanced central midfielder this season, and in this game, it might be best if he plays in a hybrid role, switching his position depending on the game situation. When Leicester are playing on the counter attack, Maddison should play high up the field in an attacking midfield role, possibly coming off the left and into the space between the full-back and the defensive midfielder, while the wingers drop in to create a 4-4-1-1 shape. While Maddison plays in this advanced area, it will be down to the left-winger to come inside and fit into his role. Then, when Leicester manage to obtain possession in United’s half, and if they gain some control in the game, Maddison can drop back into his usual position as the most advanced player in a three in midfield. This means he will constantly be in a position of attacking threat, playing as Leicester’s most creative player and hopefully providing chances for his teammates, particularly Jamie Vardy. Like mentioned earlier, this interchanging role that Maddison could be playing calls for a defensively competent left-winger, as they’ll need to come inside and support Maddison so that he can focus on attacking. This could be Harvey Barnes who has played there recently; however, his defensive stats aren’t the best as he was making only 1.2 tackles and interceptions per 90 last year, and it might be more likely that we see Albrighton in that position. Albrighton, in a similar role to Barnes, was making 3.3 tackles and interceptions per 90 last season, showing that he can carry this defensive burden and although he doesn’t bring as much in terms of attacking threat, this could be a necessary adjustment to ensure the structural security on the left side of the field.

Currently, Manchester United are suffering from numerous injury issues involving some of their core starters, and while the international break could give these players enough time to get back to full fitness, it’s quite possible that there will be a few missing names on the team sheet come game time. Many of their problems are in defence, with Bailly and Shaw both expected to miss the match while Wan-Bissaka and Dalot are doubts. This poses a number of issues as they now have a significant lack of cover in the full-back positions, and if all of the aforementioned players were to miss out on the game, Ashley Young would be United’s only senior player who can play in a wide defensive area. This could cause Solskjaer to use a centre-back out wide or it could force United to rush one of their players back to full fitness in order for them to play in the match, both of  which would of course act as a limitation. Other noticeable names on the injury sheet are Martial, as mentioned earlier, as well as Paul Pogba; however, Pogba’s ankle injury seems minor and with a week out of action you’d expect him to return at his best. Leicester, on the other hand, have a very fresh squad, as only Wes Morgan and Matty James might miss this match and both of these players are peripheral figures, meaning their absences shouldn’t affect the squad in any big way.

This will therefore give Leicester a big advantage coming into this game which they might not have had in the opening few weeks of the season, and if they exploit it in the correct ways they could push on for the win. Saying this, Manchester United will be at home in this match where they are undoubtedly a stronger side, meaning each team will see pros and cons when looking into the game. United’s start to the season has seen mixed results in terms of their home matches, as they managed to beat Chelsea in an incredibly decisive 4-0 win while they also lost 2-1 to Crystal Palace who, admittedly, have a very strong away record. When looking into last season though, United managed 36 points at home and 30 when away, and over the course of the season you would expect this to pan out in a similar way, as it does for almost every club. In the end, this game could definitely be decided based on how United finish their chances, as at this point in the season, Leicester have been far more clinical in terms of taking their opportunities, and while United’s underlying numbers look good, they don’t have the record to show for it. For this reason, I believe that they will yet again fail to get the victory that they are so desperate for while Leicester will continue on with their unbeaten start to the new season, a 1-1 draw for me.