GW 4: Everton vs. Wolves

There’s a big mid table clash coming up for us on matchweek four of the new Premier League season, with Wolves heading to Goodison Park to face Everton on Sunday. Both of these teams are expected to be in and around the Europa League spots, while many have actually touted them to break into the famous big 6, and that makes this game even more exciting for the neutral, despite the slightly disappointing starts from both sides. These teams haven’t been living up to their expectations in the opening weeks, with Everon on 4 points and Wolves on 3 after 3 gameweeks and they’ll have to make big improvements in their upcoming matches if they want to push forward and meet the high standards that they set last year. When these teams did face each other in the 2018/19 campaign, we saw some interesting results with Wolves winning when at Goodison Park but drawing on their own turf. The result was 2-2 when they met at Molineux with Everton surprisingly staying in the match after a Jagielka red card, while more recently, Wolves won 3-1 in February in the last meeting between the sides. This game was still very even despite the two goal lead that Wolves ended up with, and expected goals predicted a 1.86 to 1.36 outcome in Wolves’ favour, while Everton managed 5 more shots than their opponents. Even though Wolves did perform better than Everton in these fixtures last season, the matches were both extremely close which is what should be expected again this year.

Everton have had a very mixed start to the year, and while they have looked relatively solid at some points, they have never really looked fully confident, and it looks like it might take time for them to grow into the new season. Somewhat surprisingly, they have started the season as a strong defensive side, only conceding 2 goals so far which came against Aston Villa, while they have been incredibly tame in attack with only 1 goal to their name. They have been slightly unlucky though, as expected goals says that they should have been better off with 3.31 expected goals at this point; however, this still isn’t brilliant as it places them 14th in the league. This means that they have to find a way to bring more creativity and attacking threat into their game, especially when playing a solid defensive side like Wolves, while also making sure that they maintain their high level of defensive play. There are a number of things that could help them to do this, and something that has been very noticable is their lack of a mobile striker, as Calvert-Lewin has been largely ineffective as the central attacking player. There are a couple of ways that they could fix this either by bringing Moise Kean into the set up, as he prefers a more advanced role and could act as an all-action forward, or to move Richarlison to a central role, where he seems to prefer to play anyways. They also need a way to progress the ball through the middle, as although Sigurdsson is a high-quality attacking midfielder, he is very much a final third player who prefers to play just off of the striker.

This role could be perfect for Alex Iwobi who recently arrived from Arsenal for a very hefty transfer fee but has yet to start a game for the Toffees. Iwobi can play in a number of different roles and Marco Silva could choose to play him on the wing, where he played most of his minutes at Arsenal, or perhaps more effectively as an attacking midfielder or even a central midfielder depending on how they line up. This could mean shifting Sigurdsson to a wide position or potentially even play a 4-1-4-1 in which two attacking midfielders are employed; however, this could cause problems regarding the balance of the squad. Regardless of how Silva decides to work him into the system, he can definitely act as the central progressor for Everton as he was making 2.1 dribbles per 90 as well as completing 1.8 key passes last season, even when being used primarily as a winger. Richarlison is another player who could play both wide or centrally in this game. Like mentioned earlier, he could be the man to play in the central striker role, as this is where he has seemed more comfortable throughout his career, and while playing him on the right is somewhat useful, he has been poor there to start the season and he doesn't seem like he wants to play in a wide area. Even when he plays on the right, he often comes centrally to play next to Sigurdsson and support the striker. This doesn’t seem very smart as it eliminates the powerful runs and the pacey side of his game that make him so effective, while he also gets less shots off and if he were to play in this game, it might make sense to play him as a striker, especially when Everton will be up against three physical centre-backs.

Wolves have also had a lacklustre start to the season; however, there are a lot of positives that they can take from the three draws that they’ve managed. They have started out with some very tough fixtures having already played against Leicester, Manchester United and Burnley, and although they will have been disappointed not to win any of these games, each individual result by itself isn’t too bad considering the quality of their opposition. Like Everton, they have been incredibly solid at the back but poor when attacking, scoring 2 and conceding 2 after the first 3 gameweeks with an expected goals output of only 2.54, less than Everton have managed. This represents that they need to up their creativity levels in this next match, as while they have tried to stay true to what brought them success last year, it has seemingly become less effective and they might have to find a different route to creating chances and scoring goals. Nuno Espirto Santo might have to sacrifice some defensive discipline in order to increase their attacking returns and one way he could look to do this is by bringing Adama Traore in at right wing-back where he has looked incredibly impressive in substitute appearances and Europa League games already this campaign. We could also see Neves pushing up slightly, while the other central midfielders adjust into a wider position, as this could help Wolves’ midfield avoid Everton’s central players.

Going back to Adama Traore, he has been fantastic in the limited amount of minutes that he has managed in the Premier League this season, and although he is yet to start a league game this year, it could be the time to insert him into the squad, against a side who are strong at the back. At the moment it is very hard to judge Traore based off his stats because he has only played 59 minutes in the league but if you have watched Wolves recently, you will have been able to see the energy that he brings to the side with almost all of their attack going through him when he’s on the field. Traore could be crucial on the counter-attack in this match, and given that he is up against left-back Luca Digne who is one of the most attack-minded full-backs in the league, he should be able to find space in behind with his pace and strength. This then takes some of the burden off Raul Jimenez’s shoulders, meaning he should be able to concentrate on what he does best: scoring goals. Jimenez has only managed 1 goal so far this year and this came off a penalty which isn’t very impressive; however, he has looked promising at various points and has room to improve in this game. He has often been tasked to create for Wolves, coming deeper to collect the ball and hold up play, but now, if Traore were to come into the side, there would be more progression and ways of getting up the field which means Jimenez should have more time to run in behind or get into advantageous positions. Traore and Jimenez often dovetail nicely with each other and just recently Traore assisted for Jimenez in their Europa League match against Torino and they could form an interesting and profitable partnership in this game, along with Diogo Jota of course.

Neither team is currently facing a large amount of injury problems and at the moment Jean Phillipe Gbamin is the only senior player who should be missing for either side. Unfortunately, Gbamin has picked up an injury very early into his Everton career and after playing in the first two matches, he was ruled out for their last game against Aston Villa due to a thigh injury that could keep him out until the end of October. This has clearly affected Everton’s defensive performances as they had managed clean sheets in both of their opening 2 games when Gbamin was fit, while they conceded twice in their last match against Aston Villa without him. Another thing to consider when looking at the fitness of the players, is that both sides partook in midweek fixtures in different competitions. Everton played a Carabao Cup game against Lincoln City while Wolves ended their Europa League qualification campaign with a bang, winning 2-1 against Torino and successfully qualifying for a season in Europe. Both teams were forced to use a lot of their stronger players due to a lack of squad depth in Everton’s case while Wolves were trying to guarantee a spot in the group stages, and this could potentially affect the squad selection coming into this game. In Wolves’ case, they used almost all of their usual starters in this game and given the long qualifying campaign that they have gone through, in which they have had to play 8 games over the month of August, they could be slightly off the pace.

This of course could give Wolves a disadvantage in the match but you feel that both sides are in similar positions and with this being the last set of Premier League fixtures before the international break, both sides will likely be giving 100%. Something to consider when looking into this match is that it will be played at Goodison Park, Everton’s home ground, and when you look into Everton’s recent record at home you understand why the venue of this match could have an impact on it’s result. Everton have won their last 5 Premier League home matches while they were victorious in their only home match of this season, and perhaps even more impressively, they have kept a clean sheet in their last 6 home matches. This reinforces the fact that they have finally achieved defensive consistency, and against a team like Wolves, who are already struggling with chance creation, Everton could easily make it 7 in a row in this next match. Wolves are also very solid at the back though, and it will be interesting to see which defence cracks first in this game, if any, and whether or not the managers change their systems in order to bring more attacking threat into their game. Either way, I believe it will be a draw but I actually don’t think that it will end up goalless. I predict a 1-1 scoreline.