GW 4: Arsenal vs. Tottenham

This upcoming week, on matchweek four of the 2019/20 Premier League season, Tottenham travel to the Emirates for the first North London derby of the new campaign. This is always a very exciting fixture not just for fans of the respective clubs but also for the neutral, but this year, this game could be even more important, as both sides are heavily competing for Champions League places, and given how close it was last season, these early fixtures could have a lasting effect for the rest of the campaign. Neither team has quite had the start that they would have dreamed of, especially as they both endured losses in matchweek three, and with the heavy expectations placed on their shoulders after seemingly successful summer windows, this game could be crucial if they are to meet those expectations. This fixture always provides unexpected twists and last year, Arsenal won the home game against their rivals while they drew when away, and despite the Gunnars finishing in 5th, behind Spurs, they managed to perform better in this fixture. They were also slightly unlucky to draw in the second game, as they dominated the match with 3.46 expected goals to Tottenham’s 1.77, while Aubameyang missed a penalty and their overall play was superior to that of Spurs’. Like mentioned earlier, both sides spent well in this summer’s transfer window, so a lot has changed with the clubs and it will be interesting to see if we see similar results as we did last year.

Arsenal have started their season in decent fashion; however, at this stage it’s very hard to see where they could end up after enduring mixed results. They started strong with two wins in the opening two weeks but the scorelines they managed certainly weren’t very impressive with a 1-0 win against Newcastle and a 2-1 win against Burnley. After these matches they faced a much harder test, away to Liverpool, which they failed to meet, losing 3-1 when really it could have been a lot worse for them. Against Liverpool, Emery got the system and personnel all wrong, choosing to play with a diamond in midfield, which left them exposed to Liverpool’s full-backs and allowed them to dominate possession. Although Emery changed this towards the end of the first half, the players that Arsenal had on the field weren’t right for the job and they couldn’t get back into the flow of the game. This lead to them conceding 3 times while the expected goals score was 2.79 to 0.99 in Liverpool’s favour. There’s a lot that they will have to change for the Spurs match if they want to be successful and one of the main things is adding more width to the side. They can do this by going back to the 4-3-3 that they started the season with or even switching to the 3-5-2 that they used last year; however, the latter route is highly unlikely. They’ll definitely want to play with width, especially high up the field, as the wide players will be able to counter, in behind the Tottenham full-backs who are typically very offensive. Also, Emery will want to consider playing with one attacking midfielder, who would play just of Spurs’ Harry Winks, in order to not only press Winks further up the field, but also take advantage of Spurs’ thin midfield line due to the absence of Ndombele.

The player who is most suited to play in that attacking midfield role is definitely Dani Ceballos who had a bad game against Liverpool but can definitely still be effective if used in the right way. Defensively, Ceballos could be employed either as a man marker, head to head against Winks in order to break up Tottenham’s possession or he could be used slightly to the left, so that he can stop the progression that Moussa Sissoko brings to Spurs. Although Ceballos might not be used as an out an out 10, his role will most likely be as the most advanced in a midfield three so that he can still complete a large amount of defensive work and transition the ball from deep, which he does so well. As we saw in the Burnley game, Ceballos is a fantastic progressor and with 3.2 dribbles per 90 as well as 1.6 key passes at the start of the campaign, he’ll definitely be tasked with getting the ball into Arsenal’s dangerous front three. Aubameyang is arguably Arsenal’s most important player right now, and in this match, he could play a vital role in Emery’s plans. Aubameyang will have to be tactically versatile in this match, as he’ll have to adjust his positioning quite frequently based on the movement around him and the situation that he is in. When Arsenal win the ball back in their own half, Aubameyang should stay wide, so that his side have an outlet on the wing, possibly in behind the young right-back Walker-Peters. This should change once they move the ball forward, as you’d want Aubameyang to come in centrally into his more favoured role, so that he can put pressure on the centre-backs and get into goal-scoring areas. Due to the formation that Spurs have been playing with recently, Aubameyang could cause quite a bit of trouble on their backline as Winks might be forced into coming deep to help defend, which will in turn leave Ceballos open to create.

Spurs have had a poor start to the season by their standards and they haven’t looked confident in any of the games that they have played in. They only have one win from their opening three matches and this came against newly promoted Aston Villa on matchweek one, in a game that they won 3-1 but still struggled in. Their following match came against Manchester City, and although their defensive organization deserves some credit, they were completely dominated and were incredibly lucky to come out with a draw. Then, in their last match, they played a truly awful game against relegation candidates Newcastle in which they lost 1-0 while they were surprisingly ineffective offensively, with very little creativity throughout the side. The main problem with Spurs’ attack was the fact that Son, Moura, Kane and even Lamela were all playing, which created a lack of space up front with the players crowding each other. This was perfect for a side like Newcastle to defend against due to their conservative nature, as they were able to sit back and keep the field compact. You feel that Arsenal will also be playing quite defensively as they’d prefer to play on the counter, meaning Spurs will have to change their system and formation in order to avoid similar problems. The main issue was that they had four players who all wanted to play in around the same area which meant that the runs weren’t diverse enough and there weren’t enough options for the players with the ball. To change this, they could switch back to a 4-3-3 formation, and it’s crucial that they bring Eriksen back into the game as they looked much more positive when he was on the field. This is because Eriksen dropped slightly deeper which opened up the field and gave Tottenham an option from a deep area from which they could progress. Also, when they had a presence like this in the middle of the park, the forwards had better angles to make runs from and with Eriksen’s passing ability they create more chances.

If Eriksen continues this in Spurs’ upcoming match, they’ll have a much better chance at taking points away from the Emirates, as he continuously boosts their attack. You feel that Eriksen hasn’t played enough at the beginning of this campaign considering how important he has been for them for the past few years, and from the limited minutes that he has conjured up so far, he is making an incredible 3.8 key passes per 90 proving how much he dictates the game when on the field. If he manages to drop deep in this game, he can give Tottenham a focal point from a different position, and if Spurs play with a 4-3-3 they will then have three players making runs in behind for Eriksen to pick out. This will also allow Sissoko to step up and play more offensively, perhaps in his favoured position, which will give Spurs another route of attack. Son could also play an important role in this game as the runs that he makes often open up opportunities for his teammates. Although he didn’t play particularly well against Newcastle, you would expect that he’d be starting again, most likely just off Harry Kane, in a left wing slash striker hybrid. An important thing for Son in this match, is that he works better with Kane than he did in their last game and maybe this involves differentiating his runs or staying wider than maybe he’d prefer. Overall, this will help the side as they’ll be able to attack from all areas of the field and make it more challenging for the Arsenal backline to defend against.

In terms of injuries, Arsenal are suffering from a few problems; however, most of these injuries are long term issues and the players have already been out for a while, meaning it shouldn’t make a difference in terms of how they started the season. All of their issues are in defence which will be very annoying for Emery as it has been over the past few months, with players like Bellerin, Tierney, Holding and Mavropoanos all having been out since last season. Like mentioned earlier, this shouldn’t make too much of a difference in team selection in the immediate future, but Arsenal’s backline is quite thin at the moment, and it would be helpful for Emery to have a larger variety of options when heading into such a big game. Tottenham are perhaps struggling even further with injuries, as a number of their key players might be missing. This list includes the likes of Foyth, Ndombele and Sessegnon who are all guaranteed to miss the match as well as Alli and Walker-Peters who are both doubts. The big problem here is Ndombele, as he was superb in the opening two games for Spurs and without him they miss a lot of the defensive presence that he brings to the midfield while he also has played well alongside Eriksen. The Walker-Peters injury is also very worrying as he had to be subbed out after an hour of their last game and without him, with Foyth missing as well, Spurs only have Aurier at right-back who doesn’t really fit Pochetinho’s system. Because of all of this, Spurs might be weaker than we saw them in the first couple of weeks, and although Arsenal have problems of their own, they might have the advantage in this regard.

Arsenal also have the advantage of being the home side in this match which could actually be crucial considering their recent record at the Emirates. They are undefeated in 18 of their last 19 Premier League home matches with their last loss coming back in April to Crystal Palace. They have also scored 2 or more goals in 10 of their last 11 home games proving how dangerous they are when in front of their home crowd and also how they are surprisingly consistent, as this isn’t an attribute that has been credited with the Gunners in recent years. This superb home record is matched by some awful Spurs away form, as Tottenham are without a win in each of their last 7 away matches in the Premier League. This will undoubtedly make this trip much harder for Tottenham and they’ll have to try and put their recent away woes behind them when heading into this match. Tottenham will probably able to dominate possession in this game but they have to be incredibly wary of the threat that Arsenal pose on the counter attack, and if Emery chooses a smart starting lineup, Arsenal could cause somewhat of an upset. This game has so much at stake given what these teams are fighting to achieve this season but also the pride of winning such an esteemed derby which will be in the back of the players’ minds. I don’t think either team will win it though. I predict a 1-1 draw.