GW 3: Liverpool vs. Arsenal

The third matchweek of the 2019/20 Premier League campaign is set to keep the season going in style, and the big game this week is between Liverpool and Arsenal. Both sides have started the season strongly with six points from six and they’ll be looking to continue this; however, one, or both of them will have to let this record go by the end of the game. While Liverpool are definitely the favourites and are considered to be one of the two teams who are most likely to win the league this year, Arsenal have a lot to prove and given the smart signings that they made in the summer, it’s highly probable that they’ll be able to make the Champions League spots and possibly push their rivals Tottenham for third. Last season, Liverpool were the better side when they played Arsenal, and although they drew 1-1 when at the Emirates, Liverpool dominated in a 5-1 victory at Anfield. This is similar to what we have seen over recent years, as in the past three Premier League seasons, the sides have played 6 games against each other and Liverpool are unbeaten in these games, winning 4 and drawing 2. Also, something to note is that Liverpool have won all of their last three home games against the Gunners.

This means that Liverpool should come into this game with a fair bit of confidence, while they will also be feeling good about their start to the new season. On gameweek one they beat Norwich 4-1 and last week they beat Southampton 2-1 although it really could have been more, and they also won the UEFA Super Cup final against Chelsea. Although their game against Southampton wasn’t particularly astonishing, especially in the first half, they got the result that they were looking for and powered through despite having played 120 minutes just three days earlier. Against Southampton they actually lost on expected goals, 1.89 to 1.51, but due to the quality of their players’ finishing, they came out on top; however, this isn’t something that they can expect to get away with against Arsenal who have elite strikers such as Aubameyang and Lacazette. They’ll also want to change their tactics in order to gain more control and composure in the midfield, which is something they lacked last weekend. This could involve dropping Fabinho back into the holding-midfield role so that they have someone deeper, while Wijnaldum could play further up the pitch to give them a composed midfield player in a more attacking area. Also, now with a weeks rest, Liverpool’s front three will have more energy which should allow them to drop in more frequently in order to support the midfield and help them maintain possession.

This will be especially apparent in the case of Roberto Firmino. Firmino has got his season off to a fantastic start with an assist in their first game, a goal in their second and two assists in the Super Cup final as well as the all round tactical awareness and positioning that he brings to Klopp’s system. Arsenal are likely to play a 4-3-3 like they have been recently meaning they will have three men in the midfield. This will be the same for Liverpool, but if Firmino drops deeper, they will have four players there, and they can therefore create an overload in the centre of the park. This will allow them to control the game in a way they couldn’t do against Southampton, and Arsenal could find it difficult to attack when Liverpool are dominating in this manner. They’ll have to do something meaningful with this possession though, and this is where Mane comes into play. Mane has been superb recently, similarly to Firmino, and in his last two games he has managed 3 goals and 1 assist. Although Salah and Mane are both incredible wingers who will undoubtedly help Liverpool in this fixture, Mane might have more impact out of the two, simply due to his clinical shooting ability as well as his knack for finding space in between the lines. Interestingly, he is slowly taking up a slightly different role under Klopp as he is seemingly moving more and more centrally as the games go on, and when Firmino drops deep, Mane often drifts into the striker area. This complicated movement and flexibility across the frontline could end up causing the Arsenal defence some problems and these two players should definitely be watched due to their great form lately.

Arsenal have also been enjoying the start of the new campaign with two wins so far, and although the scorelines that they have managed haven’t been groundbreaking, things look bright for them this season. Last week they beat Burnley 2-1 in what was actually a very even match against stubborn opposition. Burnley caused Arsenal a lot of trouble in typical Burnley fashion by consistently playing long balls and putting Arsenal’s backline under pressure. This lead to Burnley taking 18 shots compared to Arsenal’s 15; however, Arsenal did edge their opponents in terms of expected goals, 1.20 to 1.07. Although Burnley are a very difficult side to play against, this performance will need to be improved on if they are to take something away from Liverpool, and you’d feel that a few things need to change. For starters, dropping Torreira into the midfield would be useful against stronger opposition as he is a composed midfielder who is very solid defensively. This could allow Guendouzi to push up into a slightly more advanced role but Emery could decide to keep Willock in the side if he wants to play slightly more offensively. Also, they might want to give Pepe his first start in the side as he has looked good in his substitute appearances and someone with his dribbling and shooting abilities might be just what they need against a firm defensive unit.

In this match it will be interesting to see which three midfielders Emery decides to line up with, as he now seems to have quite a few options. One player that will almost definitely start though is Real Madrid loanee Dani Ceballos. Ceballos was immense in Arsenal’s win over Burnley and he grabbed the man of the match award on his first start after 2 assists and a flawless all round performance. Against Burnley, Ceballos played as the most advanced in the midfield three with more freedom than the other, deeper players, and you would expect him to continue with this role on Saturday. In his last game he managed 2 tackles as well as 4 dribbles and 3 shots showing that he can do everything in his midfield role, and given that he can do defensive work, he might be the main presser in the side, being employed to win the ball back before creating chances for Arsenal’s attackers. In terms of Arsenal’s forward line, Aubameyang will be crucial as he has started his season in goalscoring form and his side will need him to perform if they are going to get something out of the game. Arsenal will undoubtedly have less chances than usual given how good Liverpool are at defending, and Aubameyang’s finishing ability will definitely come into play. Also, his runs off the ball are vital to the attacking style that Emery operates with, and with Aubameyang in the squad, the midfielders will have more opportunities to pick out a man further up the field.

Liverpool aren’t suffering from too many injuries at the moment; however, starting goalkeeper Alisson is expected to miss the next few weeks with a calf injury which is a massive loss for them. Liverpool tend to have a lot of possession which means they can be countered easily at points, and last year, it was Alisson who kept them defensively solid, and now, at the start of this campaign, without him, they’ve conceded in both of their opening two fixtures. Naby Keita is also out with a muscle injury and while it would be nice to have him back for a tough game, you feel that Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain can do a similar job to the Malian midfielder, as a progressive player from the centre of the park. Arsenal have a few more injury problems; however, none as costly as the absence of Alisson will be. Players such as Bellerin and Holding are both out with long term knee injuries with their return dates not yet confirmed and they could be missed as they are both very useful defensive players. Tierney and Xhaka are also expected to stay out after suffering injuries near the beginning of the season, and while Tierney is expected back in early to mid October, Xhaka could even make it back for this match. None of these players are crucial to Emery’s plans though, and Arsenal have started the season well without them and will be looking to continue that.

Coming into this match, the two teams competing are the only teams who have won both of their opening matches, meaning it’s a battle between first and second. Of course, this is very misleading as were only into matchweek three of the new campaign, and although these sides will both be near the top of the table come the end of the season, it’s highly unlikely that these will be their final positions. Before the start of this season, Liverpool would have been clear favourites to win this match but the 2019/20 campaign has given us a slightly different perspective. Liverpool haven’t looked as convincing as they did last year but their records are still amazing and they’re going to be at home which will just give them even more confidence, in front of the Anfield crowd. Liverpool are undefeated in their last 39 Premier League home matches which is an incredible run that now stretches over 3 seasons and when considering Arsenal’s away woes from last year, you can see how much of a struggle this could be. Liverpool have also just been great in general in the Premier League and their consistency has been crazy as they have now scored 2 or more goals in their last 11 Premier League games which proves how dangerous their attack is. This upcoming game should be much more even than the last fixture between these sides that was played at Anfield, but I believe the overall outcome will be the same. I predict a 2-1 Liverpool win.