GW 3: Brighton vs. Southampton

This weekend on matchweek three of the 2019/20 Premier League season, we have a limited number of big game fixtures compared to previous weeks, so mid table clash Brighton vs. Southampton could be one to keep an eye on. Both of these sides have looked promising in the opening weeks of the season and while they might have struggled last year, they look to be on the up during this new campaign. While Brighton have started out with a win and a draw, Southampton have not been as fortunate with their results, after two losses from the opening two weeks. However; the managers of both sides are forward-thinking and exciting, and because of this, you’d expect the teams to get better as the season progresses. In the past, this fixture has been very even, and in the last four Premier League games between them there have been 3 draws and 1 win for Southampton. Southampton won the most recent game though, which can largely be credited to new manager Ralph Hassenhuttl who came in midway through last year and improved the side massively towards the end of the campaign. This victory against Brighton was one of the many that highlighted his importance to Southampton; however, now that Brighton have Graham Potter in charge, they could see an upturn in form against the Saints and potentially a different outcome in this match.

Potter has certainly brought new life to the Seagull’s after they finished 17th last season and just 4 points above relegation. They have started the new season brilliantly as they have not only received 4 points from the first 2 matches but they have also looked stylish in the process and have been well worth their triumphs. While the scoreline against Watford on the opening gameweek was much more to celebrate than their draw with West Ham, the underlying statistics from these matches shows that they actually played much better in the game against the Hammers and were more deservant of a win. Expected goals highlights this as Brighton dominated in this area of the game, 2.18 to 0.61 and given the chances that they managed to create on the night, they really should have ended the game as victors. Not only did they create higher quality chances than their opponents but they also had a larger amount of chances, with 16 shots to West Ham’s 8 while they also had a goal ruled out be VAR, but unfortunately for them, their finishing wasn’t as strong as it was against Watford. Because of such high quality performances recently, Brighton will probably continue with the 5-4-1 formation that they have started the season with as it seems to fit their personnel perfectly. It could also work to their advantage in this match as Potter loves to play with very central wingers, in order to create a 3-4-2-1 when attacking and this could allow Brighton to put more pressure on the Southampton centre-backs high up the field.

Pascal Gross has been key to this system at the beginning of the season and he seems to have been rejuvenated by Potter after a poor 2018/19 campaign. He is playing in a role that is very new to him, after playing as an attacking midfielder under Hughton to being employed as a right midfielder this year; however, it may be more similar than people think due to how often he comes into the middle. He has been the main source of creativity for Brighton this season with an incredible 2.9 key passes per 90 which has lead to 0.52 expected assists per 90 as well. This is largely because he is being used as a more mobile player, coming in off the right to support the striker and left-winger. Southampton have typically played Vestergaard, who is quite possibly their strongest central defender, on the left of their back three, or in other words, head to head with Gross, and this could actually work quite well for Gross as he’ll be able to back away from Vestergaard and take him out of the game, using his creative abilities from a slightly deeper area. Another player who has recently been given a position change is Solly March, who was originally playing left-mid but has now been moved to a wing back position. In Potter’s system, the wing-backs are crucial as they provide the width for the side when the wingers move infield, and in this game they could be used to create an overload in attack. While right wing-back Montoya has actually had a better start to the season, March could be more important in this match because he will be up against Yan Valery who is a very attacking full-back and also very young. This means that March could help his side by springing an attack from deep and Potter might use the left hand side to counter-attack from given the space that could be provided.

Like mentioned earlier, Southampton’s campaign has not got off to a great start as they are still yet to win a point; however, Hassenhuttl and his coaching staff would be right to take a number of positives from their first couple of games. Although they have lost both of their matches, they have been on the better end of the scoreline when looking at expected goals, winning 1.09 to 0.91 against Burnley and 1.89 to 1.51 against Liverpool. This suggests that they probably should have drawn both games which is fairly impressive considering the quality of their opposition. They’ll want to keep this form going against Brighton, with the hope that their strikers improve on their finishing but it will be interesting to see whether Hasenhuttl goes for the 3-4-2-1 that he played against Burnley or the 3-5-2 that was employed against Liverpool. The 3-4-2-1 is a much stronger attacking formation as puts more pressure on the opposition backline but it’s slightly problematic in that it can leave Southampton open in the midfield, especially against a team like Brighton who play with so many central players. This is why a hybrid of the two formations might work better, as Hassenhuttl could employ a more attacking player in one of the three midfield spots. This player could then give support to the two central strikers while also dropping back if Brighton are enduring long spells of possession.

A player who could play in this role is Stuart Armstrong. Armstrong is primarily an attacking midfielder but can also play on the left or right of midfield but he hasn’t been very prominent at the start of this campaign, only having played 22 minutes so far. You feel that he has the skill set to play a more important role in this game though, and he should be able to fit in as a progressive midfielder. Last season he was making 1.2 dribbles and 1.8 key passes per 90 which shows that he can contribute in advanced areas of the field and act as support to the players up top. He also has a much better pass accuracy than players such as Ward-Prowse, which gives reason to why he should be the most advanced of the midfield three. At the base of midfield, Oriol Romeu has been great for Southampton this season and he has actually managed to replace Mario Lemina in the Saints starting line-up. Romeu has started the season with an immense 4.5 tackles and interceptions per 90 as he’s been playing as a holding midfielder, with his job to mop up the play, behind the other midfielders. Also, although he is not an attacking player by any means, he has managed to complete a key pass in each of his matches and he can provide a threat when going forwards as he’s a very crisp passer. In this game, he’ll likely be sitting even deeper than usual, as he could be employed to stop Brighton’s wingers, particularly Pascal Gross in order to limit his creative threat. From there, he can win back the ball and play it into the two more attacking midfielders for them to bring it up the field.

Given that the new season has only just begun, neither team is struggling too badly with injuries. At the moment, Brighton should only be missing two of their senior players. Left-winger Jose Izquierdo is out with a knee injury while defensive midfielder Yves Bissouma has a shoulder problem. You would think that the big miss out of these two would be Bissouma, as while Trossard is filling the left-wing position very confidently, Dale Stephens has been playing alongside Propper in the middle of the park and you feel that this is an area that could be improved on. While Stephens is a perfectly competent player, especially defensively, he can’t match the progression that Bissouma brings to the side. Last season Bissouma was making an incredible 2.4 dribbles per 90 from the base of midfield while Stephens was completing a meager 0.2 while also doing slightly less defensive work. Overall, Stephens should be able to partner up nicely with Propper like he has been doing so far, but the energy that Bissouma brings would provide great contrast to the composure that Propper has to offer. Southampton are looking even better in terms of their squad fitness as it seems like they are without any injuries at the moment and they should have their complete squad for Saturday unless any late problems occur.

This match could represent significant progress for the side that comes out on top and they will both be looking to improve on what they managed last campaign. Brighton look the better of the sides at the moment while they will also be playing in front of their home crowd which could give them an advantage. However; under Potter they have won their first competitive away game, which was against Watford while they drew in their first home game which was last week when they played West Ham and although you wouldn’t expect this to carry on throughout the season, it could be slightly indicative of how they go on with their campaign. Somewhat surprisingly, both of these sides have actually quite poor in recent Premier League history, as Brighton are without a win in 10 of their last 11 league games while Southampton have failed to win in their last 7, which could be a sign of their new manager syndrome starting to fade away. Like mentioned earlier, you would expect this form to improve considerably as the season goes on and this early clash could show us a lot in terms of what to expect from these sides. Due to Brighton’s promising form early on, and the struggles that Hassenhuttl’s men have had with finishing, I back the Seagull’s to win, 2-1.