GW 1: Liverpool vs. Norwich

The long, grueling wait for the return of regular competitive football is nearly over and it looks like were going to be in for another spectacular year of the beautiful game with Liverpool vs. Norwich kicking off the 2019/20 Premier League campaign. This match features two sides who may be far apart in terms of their skill level, but are both on the up and will be feeling confident and looking to carry their momentum from last season into the upcoming year. It’s also very hard to know how good Norwich will be against Liverpool given that the last time that these teams faced was during the 2015/16 Premier League season when Liverpool won 5-4 in a truly exciting fixture that involved constant drama and interchanging goalscoring. Although this game in itself was interesting and unique, the end result was perhaps predictable, as that match marked the 12th game in succession that Norwich had failed to defeat the Reds, with 10 losses throughout that period. And considering the quality of the current Liverpool side, it is yet again probable that they will manage to come out on top but the unknown quantity of Norwich could surprise last seasons runners up.

Liverpool will be looking forward to what will hopefully be another successful Premier League season, but after being pipped to the title by Manchester City last year, they’ll be aiming for silverware this campaign. However; at the time of writing, Liverpool are struggling slightly in pre-season after facing losses to Dortmund, Sevilla and most recently Napoli in a 3-0 defeat, and although these might just be friendly matches, they might have an effect on the squad’s confidence as they head into the beginning of the season. In this match against Norwich, Liverpool will be going up against a recently promoted side meaning they could have problems with breaking down their opposition as you’d assume that Norwich will sit quite deep after witnessing Liverpool’s abilities last season. This could lead Klopp to change from his usual 4-3-3 formation to a 4-2-3-1 in order to put more pressure on the Norwich backline. They can also look to target Norwich’s right side where they are undoubtedly more attacking and therefore more vulnerable. Last season Norwich typically played Emilliano Buendia as the right midfielder while Max Aarons played at right-back in a 4-2-3-1, however; when analyzing the average positions of these players you can see that Buendia was allowed to roam all over the pitch and was even found on the left side quite frequently, while Aarons would fly down the right flank to cover for him. This lead to high quality attacking play but also left them exposed at the back and was one of the main reasons that they conceded 57 goals in the league while managing just the 6th best defensive record despite placing first. 

This could create an opportunity for Andy Robertson to shine, pushing forward from his defensive role. Although Robertson is a full-back, Klopp’s system allows for him to join the attack frequently and while his defensive presence will obviously be important, it’s his threat when attacking that could make a difference in this game. Last year Robertson managed an incredible 11 Premier League assists from a defensive position and although his expected assists value was closer to 8 for the season, this is still very impressive and it shows that he can contribute from wide areas with balls into the box. This is backed up by the fact that he was making 1.4 key passes per game last season which shows that he is consistently creating chances for his teammates. Brazilian forward Roberto Firmino will also be valuable in this match as the versatility that he provides will allow Klopp to adjust his formation against a team that he might have limited knowledge about. Depending on the formation used by Liverpool, Firmino can either play as a striker (but more of a false nine; dropping deeper to instigate play and allow the wingers to move forward) or as an attacking midfielder in a 4-2-3-1 shape. Firmino’s positioning has been key to Liverpool’s style of play during the Klopp era as he allows the wingers (who are usually capable of playing centrally as well) to push up into the vacant space in the center of the field that he leaves when dropping deep. This means that Liverpool can create an overload in central areas or play wide to the full-backs if needed which creates a well-balanced formation that can be tough to defend against.

Norwich are now back in the Premier League after missing three seasons of top flight action and although they’ll be anxious to get back underway against some elite teams, the prospect of facing Liverpool on matchday one might worry them. In the Championship they were known for their impressive attacking performances but not for having the most solid defence and although they won the league, they consistently conceded, only keeping 13 clean sheets in 46 matches. When playing against Liverpool this could prove to be a big problem and given that Farke has never had a very organized defensive system, his players could be overloaded by the dynamism of Liverpool’s attack. Although Farke used a 4-2-3-1 formation in 43 out of Norwich’s 46 league games last season, he might have to consider changing this when facing tougher opponents and he might want to go for something more defensive so that his side is more stable. This could include playing without Buendia for the start of the match or maybe moving him to the left side where Jamal Lewis, who is a more defensive full-back, can cover him. You would also assume that Norwich will end up playing generally more defensive once they realize the full force of Liverpool’s attack but they don’t want it to get to the point where they are pinned in their own half.

Lewis could be the key to success for Farke’s men in this match. Him and Aarons were two of Norwich’s best players last season and although Aarons was undoubtedly a stronger attacking player, Lewis offers much more defensively and is a more well-rounded full-back while he also boasts two more years of experience. Last season he was making 2.6 tackles and interceptions per match and you would expect this to improve given that Norwich won’t be able to keep possession as frequently as they did in the Championship. Lewis was also completing 1.1 dribbles and making 0.6 key passes proving that he can contribute when he’s going forwards and that he can help them transition if they find themselves trapped in a deep block. Another player who could be important for Norwich in this match is central midfielder Mario Vrancic. Interestingly, he often started on the bench last campaign which seems odd considering how strong his numbers look, and in this match, you would think that Farke would want to start him, due to the fact that he can complete multiple jobs from midfield. Importantly, he was making 4.3 tackles and interceptions per 90 minutes last season and although Liverpool’s midfield is not the most attacking, if Firmino drops deeper Vrancic could have a lot of defending to do. These defensive numbers are very impressive for someone who also managed 10 goals and 7 assists in last season's Championship and this ability to both defend and attack could make or break the match. One weakness that Vrancic has is that he is quite an aggressive midfielder and if he is going to start it will likely be with a more defensive and conservative holding midfielder so that he can thrive while feeling more comfortable when rushing an opponent.

In terms of injuries, Liverpool are all clear at the moment and are ready to start a fresh new season, however; they have a number of players who went deep into international competitions meaning they have had a limited pre-season and they could be weaker come the start of the Premier League. Salah, Firmino, Alisson, Keita and Shaqiri have all just recently returned to Liverpool and with only one pre-season game for them before their Community Shield final, Klopp could decide to rest some of these key players while if they play, they might not be at their best. The biggest worry is Sadio Mane though, as he will be arriving after the Community Shield game meaning he’ll only have a few days to get back to full fitness. Because of this it’s very probable that he won’t end up starting against Norwich which could really limit the power of Liverpool’s front three. Norwich also have a couple of worrying problems as centre-back Cristoph Zimmermann is out with a knee injury and it’s quite unlikely that he should be fit for this match. Alexander Tettey also has a minor calf injury and although he wasn’t always a starter last season he would be the perfect player to sit in behind Mario Vrancic. If these two players were to miss the match, it could really harm Norwich defensively because they racked up a combined 5870 minutes in last season’s Championship from defensive positions and their output would be tough to replace.

Now that we’re back into another Premier League season it’s always tough to predict which teams are going to shine and while we can safely assume that Liverpool will be near the top of the table, Norwich’s potential campaign is more difficult to judge. Last season’s promoted sides were very different in how they progressed and while Wolves shot all the way up into 7th place, both Fulham and Cardiff were relegated back to the Championship. Although Norwich most likely won’t reach the heights of Wolves due to their unstable defensive performances, you wouldn’t think they would get relegated either given that they have a number of very capable attacking players and also some exciting youth prospects. Coming up against Liverpool should be slightly too much for them though and at the beginning of the season they’d have been wishing that they could ease themselves into the Premier League lifestyle. Also, Liverpool have not lost a home game in the past 2 seasons now and with the Anfield crowd behind them they always seem to have an extra will to win. Norwich might end up being a decent Premier League outfit this season but I expect them to be shocked by the power of Liverpool in the first game and therefore predict a 3-1 win.