GW 38: Liverpool vs. Wolves

It’s all come down to the final week of the Premier League season. An extraordinary title race that has left Liverpool one singular point behind reigning champions Manchester City as they look towards their concluding match of the season. No matter what, Liverpool will have to win this match if they are looking to obtain the Premier League trophy but it won’t be easy considering they are up against the proposition of 7th place Wolves, who have been in top form lately. Also, Wolves won the last match between the sides; however, this was an FA cup game in which Liverpool were resting quite a few of their key players, and in the earlier Premier League game between them, Liverpool managed to come out on top. Liverpool won the reverse fixture 2-0 at Wolves’ home ground in a very solid victory for a Liverpool side who were playing brilliantly around that time of year. Liverpool took 15 shots to Wolves’ 11 while they also managed 1 more on target and with an expected goals score of 2.16 compared to Wolves’ 0.76, you can see that Liverpool deserved to win the match. Liverpool also dominated possession as you would expect with 62% of the ball and Wolves’ usually effective counter-attacking strategy was nullified by the strong backline of the Reds. You would think that Liverpool should be able to do the same again here but with the pressure on, it’s possible that we might see them crumble at the worst possible time.

Liverpool’s phenomenal season has left them with 94 points at this stage and if they were to win in this match they would achieve the 3rd highest points tally in Premier League history. However, they are extremely unlucky to have been playing in the same time period as possibly the Premier League’s greatest ever side in Manchester City, who over this season and last, have managed 195 points so far, with 1 one final game to go. Liverpool come into this match in incredible form as they’ve won all of their last 8 games and they’re unbeaten in the league since January 3rd when City beat them 2-1. Recently though, they haven’t too many tough opponents in league play and in their last match they struggled slightly against a resilient Newcastle side. They won 3-2 but they had to wait until the 86th minute for their winning goal and considering how strong they’ve been defensively this year, it’s odd to see them conceding two goals against a relatively defensive side like Newcastle. They definitely need to improve in order to be equipped to face a better side in Wolves, and Klopp might need to consider switching up his tactics if his side are going to put in a better performance. To do this they could look to play with more possession against Wolves in order to calm the game down more often while maybe bringing in a creative presence like Shaqiri from the beginning will help them to keep the game in their hands.

Shaqiri could end up being an important figure in this match and after an assist in his last Premier League game it is possible that Klopp might be more eager to bring him back into the side. Shaqiri offers something very different to any of the other players that Liverpool have as he is much more of a traditional creator and coming in off the right he has the ability to progress the ball for his side. In the Premier League, he is making an average of 1.7 key passes per 90 while he also has a combined expected goals and assists value of 0.51 per 90, showing how involved he is with Liverpool’s attacks when they are high up the field. Georginio Wijnaldum will also be crucial from the center of midfield, as his consistent high levels of performance in multiple areas help Liverpool to manage the game. Although none of his stats show anything particularly special, it’s his ability to be flexible and his incredible versatility across his skill set that makes him stand out. In this game he will likely play as the second most defensive midfield player as he’ll stay in a moderate position, usually between the defensive midfielder (who will probably be Fabinho) and a more advanced player. From here, all of his skills will be able to shine and he will have large control over the tempo that Liverpool play at, considering that he will be at the center of most of their passing play.

Wolves, like Liverpool, have had a fantastic season by their standards and after gaining a promotion from the Championship last season, their first Premier League season since 2011/12 is going to end with a 7th place finish which will have far exceeded expectations. What they’ve achieved in such a short period of time is truly remarkable as they have firmly established themselves as the “best of the rest” in the Premier League, and with the way they have played this season, many people have touted them to be a top 6 team in coming years if they manage to keep their level of performance up. Their recent form has been superb as they are unbeaten in their last 4 while they have won all of their last 3 Premier League matches which has included matches against Arsenal and Watford, who are both strong teams in the top 10. Their last match was slightly easier though as they beat a relegated Fulham side 1-0. They weren’t at their best in this match but they did enough to get the win which is what really matters, and although they probably wish they could have made it a more convincing game, they will have been happy with the end result. They did thoroughly deserve to win the match as well, taking 19 shots to Fulham’s 6 while they also were predicted to win by expected goals, by a 2.09 to 0.51 scoreline. They face a side at the other end of the table in their next match though, and you’d think that this would massively affect their tactics, and they might look to give Liverpool most of the possession in order to try and score on the break.

You feel that Raul Jimenez could be vital in Wolves’ approach in this game as his hold up play makes his team’s attacking moves much more effective. He has outperformed everyone’s expectations having scored 13 and assisted 7 in the league so far this season, and, even more importantly, he has not only made a difference in terms of goal contributions but his abilities have also allowed Nuno Espirito Santos to play with the style that has become associated with this Wolves side. Because Jimenez is a relatively tall striker, Wolves might look to clear the ball up to him when trying to counter, as from there he can use his superb hold up play to allow runners to get in behind before playing them in while Liverpool have limited numbers back. Someone who will always be making the run for Wolves is Diogo Jota who has also had a very successful campaign up front, especially in recent games, and as the faster striker of the two, he provides a complete contrast to his partner Jimenez. While Jimenez is a big bulky attacker, Jota is small and diminutive and while Jimenez is strong in the air and a good finisher of the ball, it’s Jota’s pace and dribbling ability that makes him stand out. Jota is making 2.2 dribbles per 90 in the Premier League which is very high and while he isn’t overly involved in build-up play, making an average of only 28 passes per 90, when he gets on the ball he has the potential to make something happen and Wolves’ superb strike partnership could cause the Liverpool backline some problems.

Liverpool are currently facing a few very worrying injury prospects and with Keita missing the match for sure with a bad thigh injury, they have a number of other players who have obtained minor problems. Robertson, Lallana, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Salah, Firmino and Origi should all be able to return from their smaller issues; however, due to the sheer number of players who could be missing, one or two of them probably won’t make it back on time due to sheer probability. Luckily for Liverpool though, key player Mohamed Salah should be fine to return for this game as his absence from their midweek Champions League clash was simply a precaution, while Oxlade-Chamberlain also looks incredibly likely to play, meaning both of these players shouldn’t be worried about too heavily. Elsewhere, if the other players were to miss, it could cause some big problems for Klopp’s men as there are some big names on that list with the most important being Firmino and Robertson and absences of these players could cause a change in tactics. Wolves on the other hand are completely clear of any injury problems which will provide a massive advantage for them and although they are the inferior side, they could cause an upset because of their fitness advantages and the fact that they’ve had to play in less competitions recently.

This is one of many massive games that we have coming up for us on Sunday but as mentioned earlier, this match has particular significance due to it’s potential impact on the title race. A big positive for Liverpool is that they are at Anfield where they happen to be very dominant, as they are unbeaten for a remarkable 39 games in a row in the Premier League. When Liverpool have been at home this season, they have won 16 of their 18 matches, averaging an incredible 2.78 points per match and with the home crowd behind them, it’s very difficult to see any result other than a win for the Reds. Also, Wolves have been worse when away as you would expect managing 11 less points than when they’ve been at home over the course of the season; however, they are in decent overall form and with the way they’ve been playing this season you shouldn’t doubt their ability to get something from this match. Overall, because Liverpool are the higher quality side while they are also at home, I believe they’ll put the pressure behind them to win 2-1 and possibly snatch their first ever Premier League title.