GW 38: Brighton vs. Manchester City

The final week of the 2018/19 Premier League campaign. A great chance for Manchester City to grab the title on the last week of the season as they travel to Brighton on Sunday. This could end up as a historic match, particularly if City lose, because the gap between the top two sides, Manchester City and Liverpool, is only one point at the moment, meaning either side could win the title at the last moment. Brighton and City have only faced each other five times in their history and when they have played, it hasn’t looked good for Brighton who have only won once, which was all the way back in a cup fixture in 2008. The last four matches between them have been more recent (over the past two seasons) and Manchester City have won all of these, proving their dominance over the Seagulls. The reverse fixture between the sides earlier in the season ended in a 2-0 Manchester City win and City were fairly comfortable throughout the match, without facing too much threat from their opposition. Expected goals shows this, as the metric predicted a 2.91 to 0.23 scoreline in City’s favour while City managed 24 more shots in the match and 7 more on target in a truly assertive performance. Things could change in the upcoming match though, as more pressure is on City to get a result and they could struggle to find all three points on the road.

Brighton have had a very poor season this year but they have managed to avoid relegation which is about the only positive you can find and they could yet have a final moment of glory in their upcoming match. Currently in 17th place, Brighton have really fallen off towards the end of the season and they are actually winless in their last 8 Premier League matches, only gaining 3 points in this time, proving how terrible their recent form has been. Their last match was more promising though, and although they didn’t manage to get the win that they so desperately needed, they obtained a draw against Arsenal which should boost their confidence. In this match, although Arsenal were quite poor, Brighton played better than they have over their past few and while they took 9 less shots than the Arsenal side, the expected goals result was 2.36 to 1.91 in Arsenal’s favour, highlighting that, at least, it was a close affair. While they will have been fairly happy with this result, they need to look forwards to a different sort of challenge now, and manager Chris Hughton will have to adjust their style of play in order to be ready to counteract a very dominant side. Brighton aren’t a particularly strong counter-attacking side, as they don’t have many pacey players in their usual starting lineup, so the best way for them to get something in this match might be to play with two up top in order to put some pressure onto the City backline. This way, when they regain possession they can launch it forwards to one of their strikers so that they can head down to another man and potentially get lucky with a break.

Up front, Glenn Murray could make an impact as he always seems to, and if he does play alongside another front man, his lack of mobility could be cancelled out and he could prove to be very effective. Yet again, Murray has had a decent goal scoring season and although he has dropped off significantly, he has still scored 12 goals in the league, making him his teams top scorer by 7 goals, which is quite indicative of how badly Brighton’s season has gone. He is not as fast or agile as he used to be but he is still a very useful finisher and if he gets service to him in and around the box he always looks dangerous. Because of this, he’ll need some creativity around him in this match, especially against a strong defensive side, and Pascal Gross has the potential to provide the ammunition for him. Although Gross has had a very disappointing year compared to last campaign, he has the potential to improve, and now that he is starting to come back into the starting team, he is likely going to be the main creative threat. He has only managed 2 Premier League assists this season, but this is quite unfair to him as his underlying numbers are quite good, with him completing 2.2 key passes per game while according to expected goals, he should have at least 5 assists by this stage. He usually stays just behind Murray, but in this game he might be required to sit deeper in order for him to be a successful progressor of the ball, especially if Hughton does go for two strikers.

Manchester City are having another insane season, and like mentioned before, the Premier League trophy is in their hands going into the final week of the season. With 95 points at this stage, if they were to win their final match of the season they will have obtained the second highest points tally in the Premier League’s history, only being bettered by their performance last season, and with only Brighton left in their way, this becomes a crucial match for them. Based on their recent form, they should be able to win this match quite comfortably, as they have won all of their last 13 Premier League matches in an incredible run that has seen them overtake Liverpool at the top of the table ;however, not all of their games have been overly convincing, and in their last match they managed to beat Leicester City 1-0 after a very cagey affair. They edged the match in terms of expected goals, 1.09 to 0.54, but in the end it was a shot with an expected goals value of 0.02 that got them the three points, as Vincent Kompany scored a bullet shot from long range in the 70th minute. Although the result will have pleased the side, Guardiola is a perfectionist and he will demand a massive improvement in their next match if he is to be happy. To do this, they will want to try to open the playing field as Brighton play as a very compact unit against the bigger sides. This might include playing their wingers very wide before having their midfielders make late runs into the box in order to stay clear of markers.

Someone who could be crucial in Pep’s game plan is Raheem Sterling, as his quality from the wing has been crucial to City’s success over the past two seasons. Sterling can play on either wing for City while he is also very flexible in how wide he plays, as he  has the ability to either hug the touchline or stay more centrally almost as a second striker. In this game, no matter which wing he plays on, he will most likely be required to stay wide in order to stretch Brighton’s system and open up space in the middle of the park. From this wide position, he can do a lot of damage and his stats are unbelievable as he is making 2 key passes per match as well as completing 2.5 dribbles, and this season, he has 17 goals and 10 assists in the Premier League. Another important creative player for City is Bernardo Silva; however, he is more of an all action player and he could actually be required to play a more defensive role in this game depending on the lineup that Guardiola goes with. City’s main focus will be on attack though, as they need all three points in order to guarantee them the title and given that Silva is a former winger, if he does play central midfield in this game like he has recently, he can use some of his progressive abilities to help City break through Brighton’s backline. From a deeper role, he has been making 1.9 key passes per match and if players like Sterling and Sane are struggling from the wings, he can offer a different route for the Cityzens.

Brighton will be missing both Davy Propper and Jose Izquierdo for this match due to injury and both of these players have started quite frequently this season meaning their absences could cause some problems for the Seagulls. Propper has been much more of an important figure this season and with over 2500 minutes in the league, he has the 4th highest amount of minutes in the Brighton squad, proving that he will be a big miss. Without him, Brighton will most likely have to use Dale Stephens alongside Yves Bissouma in the center of the park, and while both of these players have their strengths they haven’t managed the same consistency that Propper has and they are both relatively error prone, which could affect them against City. City also have a few injury problems affecting their squad as both Fernandinho and De Bruyne have been struggling with their fitness lately. While Fernandino has essentially been ruled out for this match by Guardiola, De Bruyne could still make an early recovery in order to play in this match. Fernandinho will obviously be a massive miss for Pep, as he is the defensive fulcrum on which the rest of the side rely, and without him shielding the center backs, City often lose some of their attacking power as they’re forced to commit more players in defence in order to fill Fernandinho’s gap. This will be particularly harmful in this game because of how much they do need to win, and if they do play slightly more defensively, they could find it hard to get through the mass of defenders that Brighton will undoubtedly have in front of their goal.

It’s been a wonderful season up to this point, and now with only one game left to play, all we can do is sit back and enjoy what’s happened so far and how we have been so lucky to witness two of the best ever Premier League sides. Although Manchester City are the clear favourites in this match, there are a couple of things going against them that will give both Brighton and Liverpool hope, as they’re not at home for this game while the pressure on them is immense and it’s possible that it might be too much for them to bear. We’ve seen City slip up away from home before this season, with losses against Newcastle and Leicester coming to mind, and they have been a much worse side when away this year, with a surprising 13 less points than when they’ve been at home. This should be very worrying to City, as although they know they are the better side, they will also be wary of previous performances and they won’t be completely confident when coming into this match. Brighton are also much stronger at home than away as they have 23 points at home compared to 13 when travelling and although neither of these tallies are impressive, they have beaten teams of the likes of Wolves and Manchester United when at their home ground this year. Saying this, Manchester City are such a talented side, and with a manager of the quality of Pep Guardiola I really can’t see them throwing the league at this stage. I predict a cagey 1-0 City win.