GW 37: Manchester City vs. Leicester

On this upcoming Monday we have a crucial game in store for us in the Premier League title race as current top team Manchester City are going to face mid table side Leicester. City are the better side in almost all areas of the game; however, in recent years they’ve struggled against Leicester and although they’ve won 4 of their last 6 against their upcoming opponents none of these wins have come in the last 2 matches between them. Leicester also won the earlier Premier League match between them this season in a very interesting match around Christmas time. Leicester played superbly in this match and they managed a deserved 2-1 scoreline proving their strength as well as their capacity to upset bigger sides. They took 1 less shot than City in the match but they had 1 more on target while expected goals shows that they created marginally better chances with a predicted result of 1.56 to 1.35. Also, although City were allowed to dominate possession with 67% Leicester’s ability to counter-attack hurt them badly and they often paid for being caught too high up the field. Although a similar result seems unlikely, especially given how City will be at home for this one, it’s not out of the ordinary to expect a draw from a Leicester side who have been in good form recently.

Manchester City have had another fantastic Premier League season and they are only two matches away from securing a second consecutive title but any slips could cost them the trophy at this stage, with Liverpool only 1 point off them. Both Manchester City and title challengers Liverpool are in superb form at the moment and City have actually won their last 12 league games in their best run of the season ;however, although they have been achieving some fantastic results lately they haven’t looked completely convincing over their last few matches and they haven’t managed their usual high margins of victory. This applies to their last Premier League game which was a 1-0 win over Burnley which was much closer than it needed to be, considering how dominant City usually are against the lower sides. They did play much better than their opponents though taking 25 shots to Burnley’s meager 2 while they also managed an expected goals score of 2.35 compared to 0.09 from Burnley showing that they did thoroughly deserve to win the match. There’s not too much that Manchester City can do to improve on this match but they will definitely have to set up differently against Leicester as they’ll have to be wary of their ability to break and the speed at which they can do so. To do this they could use a relatively defensive midfield line while Fernandinho should be available again and this will allow for a slightly more flexible midfield that can drop deeper when required.

Bernardo Silva will be crucial in this as his impact from center-midfield has been immense so far this campaign while he’s been a surprisingly good defensive player. Considering he played on the wing when he was at Monaco and during his first season at City, he has done superbly well to adapt his game in order to become a mobile midfield player who is capable of performing a number of roles for Guardiola. He has been making 2.3 tackles and interceptions per 90 in the Premier League this season showing that he can put in a defensive shift but the reason he will be so important in this match is that he has the ability to play well in multiple different situations and systems. If City are trying to score a quick goal his dribbling abilities from midfield mean that he can carry the ball into more advanced areas, while if they are aiming to keep possession of the ball and slow the game down, he can drop slightly deeper and with 53.5 passes per 90 in the league you can see that he is often required to tie play together. Another player who will be important in defending Leicester’s breakaways is Aymeric Laporte as he has been City’s stand out defender so far this season. Laporte is also making 2.3 tackles and interceptions per game which is quite impressive considering how much of the ball City tend to have and like Silva, he is a mobile player meaning he has the ability to keep up with the pace of Leicester’s counter attacks. Also, his build up play from center-back is phenomenal as he is making 84.7 passes per match with a superb 92% pass accuracy and if City are struggling to score he might be able to push forwards to add an extra threat.

Leicester have also had quite a good season so far and this week they have the chance to make it even better if they were to beat the reigning champions twice in one campaign. At the moment, Leicester are in some pretty good form having won 5 of their last 7 Premier League games as they’ve really taken off under Brendan Rodgers and they look to be enjoying their time under him. They also played incredibly well in their last match as they managed to thrash Arsenal 3-0 at home in a big upset, as they thoroughly dominated the North London side in one of their best performances of the season. In the match they took 24 shots to Arsenal’s 6 with an insane 12 shots on target compared to Arsenal’s 1 while expected goals shows that this large margin of victory was completely deserved with the metric predicting a 3.68 to 0.60 scoreline. Leicester did manage 68% possession in this match though which definitely won’t happen when they play City and although they’ll want to play with a similar style they will have to adjust their tactics in order to cope with playing against a much stronger side. They have to prepare to have limited amounts of the ball and, like mentioned earlier, expect that most of their chances will come from counter-attacks meaning they’ll have to choose players that fit a fast style of play. They could also look to attack heavily from the wide areas as City’s full-backs are often caught quite high up the field meaning there should be space in behind if they can get into those areas.

When breaking, right back Ricardo Pereira could be really important as he has the attacking power to really aid his side when going forwards. Pereira has been making 1.9 dribbles per game this season as well as 1 key pass, showing that he is a very attacking full back and he has the ability to exploit the aforementioned wide space. He is also quite a fast player meaning that if he gets the ball in a deeper area he should be able to progress it quickly which will definitely be a priority for Brendan Rodgers. Surprisingly, Pereira is also putting up very good defensive numbers, making 5 tackles and interceptions per match which is perhaps indicative of his aggressive nature and also how Leicester tend to play without too much possession, and this defensive solidity will obviously be helpful against the best attacking team in the division. Another Leicester player who we can expect to shine is Youri Tielemans, who has been great since joining the club in January. His loan signing has been superb and in the 11 Premier League matches he has played, he has averaged 2.5 shots and 1.5 key passes per game as a more attacking midfielder. He will be another player who will help on the break as he tends to drop quite deep at times before advancing the ball forwards and progressing his side with his range of passing. He is also a decent defensive player although he has played in an attacking role under Rodgers and at Monaco he was making 3.4 tackles and interception per 90; however, that has dropped to about 1.7 now that he’s moved to Leicester. Generally, Tielemans is a solid all round player who is very flexible and his varied skill set both on and off the ball could help his side to nick something in the match.

Injuries will play a part in this match and at the moment a couple key players could be missing for City. Both De Bruyne and Fernandinho are currently suffering from problems that have kept them out of their last few games and while Fernandinho could possibly return from his knee problem by Monday, De Bruyne’s muscle injury looks like it could keep him out for quite some time. If both these players were to miss the match, City would have some serious midfield problems as Fernandinho is the anchor of the side from the base of midfield while Kevin De Bruyne (when he’s been fit) has been the main creative player in the side with 0.43 expected assists per 90. This also leaves them relatively limited in terms of midfield options which will hurt them later on in the game if they are struggling for diversity in the squad. Leicester are looking much better in terms of injuries as Daniel Amartey is the only player injured in their senior squad. Amartey has only played 639 Premier League minutes this season and most of this game time came at the beginning of the season meaning his issue really shouldn’t cause many problems for Rodgers’ side. This gives Leicester a big advantage in the game and since City are missing some crucial midfield players they might find it harder to dominate than usual.

This monstrous clash could end up as a very important moment in the Premier League history books as it has the potential to decide the fate of this season’s competition. City are clearly the favourites for this match but Leicester have become known for some famous upsets over recent years and it is certainly not unrealistic for Leicester to obtain at least a draw from this game. City are at home though where they have been absolutely dominant this year as they’re the best home side in the division with 51 points from 18 matches and they have won all but one of their home Premier League matches this season and it’s this superb consistency in front of their own fans that has seen them rise above Liverpool. Recently, they’ve kept 5 clean sheets in their last 7 Premier League matches proving how solid they’ve been and this defence will really test Leicester’s blazing attack. Although Leicester have been very good against top sides it’s tough to see them getting a great result away to the best side in the league and I’m predicting a narrow 1-0 win for City who will grind the result out in order to get closer to lifting the Premier League trophy.