GW 35: Manchester City vs. Tottenham

As the season winds down the title race seems to get more intense by the day and next week we have a huge fixture that could potentially decide who becomes champion as Manchester City are at home to Tottenham. This is one of the highest quality games left in the season and it is crucial for both teams involved as well as a few other sides who could be affected by the result. In the past, City have dominated in this fixture winning all of their last 3 Premier League matches against their opponents while they’ve also only lost 1 of their last 6 in all competitions against the North London side. However, although City won the reverse fixture in the league, just last week they lost to Tottenham in the Champions League in a match that saw Pochettino’s tactics outdo Guardiola’s. This match was quite a dull affair but Pochettino got his game plan absolutely spot on and while City managed to dominate possession with 59%, they were limited to 10 shots with only coming 2 on target while Tottenham took 13 shots and managed 4 on target. This shows that Tottenham successfully managed to shut down City’s immense attacking threat and it’s possible that they can do that again, in order to at least to get a draw from the match.

City have dropped down to 2nd place again after Liverpool beat Chelsea on the weekend but they have played a game less than their title rivals and if they were to win this match they would climb back to the top, whereas if they lost of drew the league would be in Liverpool’s hands. Manchester City are in some good form at the moment though as they have won all of their last 9 Premier League matches in a run that has seen them beat teams such as Arsenal, Everton, Chelsea and Watford and they’ve bounced back brilliantly from their poor run during the middle of the season. One of the teams that they lost to in the middle of the campaign was Crystal Palace who beat them 3-2 around Christmas time but last week they played them again and this time beat them 3-1 in a fairly convincing victory. In this match they had 73% possession and they took an incredible 20 shots to Palace’s 7 showing that they were the firmly dominant side and also that they have improved from where the were earlier in the season. Looking forwards to their next match City should look to play more offensively, as when they played Spurs last week in the Champions League, Pep went with a very defensive system along with defensive personnel. This clearly didn’t work as they didn’t manage to score in the match and they actually played one of their worst attacking matches of their season. The obvious change for this match is to bring De Bruyne back into the side in order to add creativity to the midfield while Leroy Sane might also start as he could give them the spurt of individual brilliance that is required against a well organized team like Spurs.

If De Bruyne plays, which is quite likely, he should be crucial as he is starting to regain his form after a number of injuries have kept him out for the first part of the season. He also played a crucial role against Palace on the weekend as he grabbed a brace of assists which were actually his first 2 Premier League assists of the season and he had an overall great game as he managed 3 dribbles, 4 shots and and incredible 5 tackles while he also kept a 90% passing accuracy and now that he has finally got his form together he can once again act as the main creative threat for City. In the limited minutes that he’s played, he is averaging 3.5 key passes per 90 minutes as well as 2.7 shots and there is no clear drop off from where he was last season despite going through injury problems. In this match De Bruyne could look to exploit the space behind the more advansive Harry Winks and if Tottenham play a three at the back he could play further forwards in order to put pressure on the defenders. Raheem Sterling will also be important higher up the field as his role has become increasingly crucial over the course of the season. He has scored 17 and assisted 9 making him joint 2nd in the league for most direct goal contributions and he really has turned into City’s star man after consistently performing for the past two seasons now. He is great at making inside runs which will be especially important if Tottenham use a three at the back because he’ll be able to utilize the space between the outside center-back and the full-back. If Tottenham go with a four, he will most likely hug the touchline, leaving players like De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva with more space in the middle and therefore benefitting his side.

Tottenham have had another good season in the Premier League but there's a possibility that everything that they’ve worked for could go down the drain in these final moments as if they don’t make the top 4 this will be considered a disappointing campaign. They are currently in 3rd place meaning they are in a primary position to obtain Champions League football, however, they are only 3 points away from dropping out of the top 4 while they’re also just 4 points away from 6th place Arsenal. At one point in the season they looked nailed on to finish in a Champions League spot but after a few bad performances in recent weeks, including a run in which they were winless in 4 games, it looks much less certain but they did win convincingly against Huddersfield last week. They beat Huddersfield 4-0 in a thoroughly comfortable match as they were able to rest players and get a promising result, dominating the match for it’s entirety. Now they have to look forward though, and to a much different match as they’ll be very much second favourites in this one and Pochettino will have to adjust his tactics to best fit his opponent's style of play. This could mean sticking with the four at the back that won them the earlier Champions League fixture as it can help to stop City’s central play by forcing the wingers wider while congesting the midfield so that City’s passing moves aren’t as effective.

A midfielder who has been in stunning form for Spurs lately is Moussa Sissoko as he has regained his spot in the side this season after injuries to other players have given him an opportunity. He is using his chance well and he has been played in a variety of different role since breaking into the team this season and is very good as a utility man but in this game he will likely play slightly deeper than usual, and quite possibly as the transitional defensive midfielder. His stats aren’t brilliant in any particular area but he has been making 1 key pass per 90 as well as 1.4 dribbles showing that he can be used to progress the ball, although this will most likely fall on Eriksen, and Sissoko will likely play as the deepest attacker, winning the ball back before allowing his side to play out quickly. Higher up the field, Eriksen will be in charge of this progression, and although he might not be as crucial as Sissoko, he has the potential to swing this game in Tottenham’s favour. He is having yet another fantastic season as he has 6 goals and 12 assists to his name in the Premier League and he is still creating at a very high rate, despite a small drop off from some of his previous campaigns. He is currently managing 0.48 expected goals and assists per match compared to his 0.53 last season and 0.58 during the 16/17 campaign showing that he is still an elite player but that he is possibly not at the top of his game any longer. Saying this, in his last few matches he has looked in bright form and in his last 4 Premier League games he has managed an astonishing 20 key passes as well as an average of 0.6 expected assists per game and this creative form will be needed if Spurs are going to break through City’s strict defensive formation.

City are currently in pretty good shape in terms of injury problems as a couple of minor issues are affecting their current squad but nothing too massive. Both Fernandinho and Zinchenko are suffering short term injuries as Fernandinho picked up a knock recently while Zinchenko has a small muscle problem and although it’s likely that these players will return on time for Saturday’s match, if they were to miss Pep could have to reevaluate his system. Fernandinho would obviously be the big miss here as he is absolutely crucial to City’s style of play and although they have Gundogan who can also play in a deep-lying midfield role, he is much more of a creator whereas Fernandinho provides both the defensive and progressive presence that City need at the heart of their midfield. Spurs are struggling much more heavily as they are missing some key players with Aurier, Dier and Kane all going to be kept out for this match for sure while Lamela, Alli and Llorente could also have to sit out depending on how quick they can recover. The big misses here are Dier, Alli and Kane as these three are some of their most crucial players and they’ll be very tough to replace. Dier would’ve been perfect for a match like this as the defensive cover that he provides for the backline is necessary against a team with such strong attacking midfielders while the attacking threat of both Alli and Kane would come in handy to say the least.

This match has the potential to decide so much in the Premier League this season and the intensity that the match brings should mean we’re in for a great game. Manchester City are home for this one though which does give them quite the edge as they are the best home side in the league having gained 48 out of a possible 51 points when at the Etihad. They also have an incredible scoring record when at home as they’ve scored 2 or more goals in 17 of their last 18 home matches while they’ve averaged 3.2 goals per game as they’ve posed a consistent attacking threat. Also, although Tottenham played well when away at the beginning of the season, they have now lost their last 4 Premier League away matches which is why they’ve been put into a difficult situation in the league and why they desperately need a good result here. These stats do firmly point towards a City win, however, the Champions League match between them, although Spurs were at home in this one, shows that Tottenham do have the potential to outwit their opponents. Because of this I’m predicting a 1-1 draw, which could actually prove to be costly for both sides.