GW 35: Everton vs. Manchester United

We’re into the final few weeks of the season now and this weekend we have an exciting Premier League fixture for us between Everton and Manchester United. Both sides have some very talented players at their disposal but have had slightly disappointing campaigns so far that have left Everton in 9th and United in 6th as they’ll be fighting to improve in order to climb up the table. When these sides have met in the past, Everton haven’t faired brilliantly and in the last 5 Premier League matches between them Everton are winless, as United have won 3 and 2 have come out as draws. One of these United victories came earlier on this season, in the reverse fixture in Manchester, where United came out on top 2-1 in a fairly convincing win. In this match, the teams took an equal number of shots with 14, but United were shooting from far more promising areas with 10 of their shots coming on target to their opponents 6, while they also managed 2.51 expected goals while Everton managed 1.67. This was, of course, a long way back in the season now and both sides have gone through a lot from that stage, with United having improved slightly while Everton are finally starting to hit their form again after a really bad period a few weeks ago. Also, Everton are going to be at home for this one so we could see the result swing in their favour on the second time of asking.

Everton’s season has been interesting up to this point but not exactly what they would’ve hoped for as they’ve failed to nail on a 7th place finish that would’ve labeled them as “the best of the rest”. They are currently 9th in the league and although this isn’t bad, there is a slender 6 point gap between them and 14th place meaning they will have to fight to stay within the top 10. Their recent form has been quite promising which is the reason that they’ve managed to climb up the table but they endured a disappointing loss last week to 19th place Fulham. They lost 2-0 to what has been a poor Fulham side in a match that has yet again lowered their standards from the expectation that they have set. Fulham deserved to win this game as they took 12 shots to Everton’s 8 while they also managed 4 more on target while expected goals predicted a 1.66 to 1.29 scoreline. Considering Everton struggled in this game, they could have a hard time in their next match as United are much stronger opposition in almost every area of their game and you’d expect Marco Silva to make big tactical changes. Although Everton could opt to play with similar starting personnel, they’ll definitely play more defensively in this game with a counter-attacking focus, while Michael Keane should also be brought back into the side.

In order for them to play successfully on the break, star man Richarlison will be important as he has the pace and individual talent that is necessary to beat a man quickly. Richarlison is Everton’s joint top goalscorer with 12 goals this season while he’s managed a fairly decent 0.37 expected goals per 90 and at the same time he is taking 2.5 shots. This shows that he is adept at getting into promising areas inside the box despite often playing as a winger, and his ability to find space will be necessary if his side are to break through. You’d expect him to play as the right midfielder in this game like he has in his past few, meaning he’ll be up against Luke Shaw who has been good for United this season; however, Shaw is quite an attacking player and Richarlison could look to play higher up the field in order to exploit his opponents defensive frailties. Idrissa Gueye will also be important but in a more defensive role as he has been one of the best defensive midfielders in Europe this campaign. His 6.8 tackles and interceptions per 90 is astonishing as he has the highest tackle per 90 rate in the Premier League and is a crucial center piece to Everton’s defensive play. He’ll have the likes of Paul Pogba, Jesse Lingard and Marcus Rashford up against him in this next match who are all very capable attacking players and this solidity that Gueye provides will be crucial if Everton are to maintain their recent defensive quality.

United, like Everton, haven’t had a particularly impressive season and considering they finished in 2nd place last year, they will have been very disappointed with their current 6th place spot where they are 21 points off the top of the table. They could still make it into the Champions League places though as they’re are a mere 2 points off the elusive 4th place position that would guarantee them a spot in Europe for next season. United’s form has slowed though in recent weeks and at the worst possible time and with them losing 2 of their last 4 in a poor period they won’t be full of confidence coming into this game. Their last game was slightly better but they did ride their luck quite heavily as they managed to grind out a 2-1 win over West Ham. West Ham took more shots in the match while the teams had an equal number of shots on target but United were able to come out on top as the referee awarded them two penalties in the match and Paul Pogba capitalized on both opportunities. It still wasn’t a great performance though and they easily could have drawn given the chances that their opposition had, and for their next match, against arguably more difficult opponents, more attacking routes will need to be found for them to win yet again. They could look to do this by bringing Pogba back into a more attacking role where he tends to thrive because in their last match they used Mata and Lingard further forwards and neither of these players can really act as the sole creator.

Pogba will always be the star man for United due to his individual brilliance and you’d expect his impact to be even more influential in this match because of the lack of creativity that United have been experiencing lately. He has scored 13 and assisted 9 making him top in both categories for United while he is also making 1.5 key passes per match and has a combined expected goals and assists of 0.7 per 90, which is very elite. All of this proves that he has the ability to play further up the field in this match and this way he can put more pressure on the aforementioned Idrissa Gueye while acting as the main creative fulcrum. This also allows United to play more defensively as it means they can afford to play two defensive midfielders behind Pogba in order to protect their side from Everton’s counter-attacks. Fred could be important playing behind Paul Pogba and although he has had a largely disappointing season he is finally starting to get some minutes under Solskjaer, and while he’s been inconsistent, he has had some good moments. Fred has actually been quite efficient when he has played, making 4.2 tackles and interceptions per 90 highlighting his aggressive nature but their have been too many moments of uncertainty from him that have cost his side. If he does manage to stay safe though, he can offer a more progressive presence from deep positions and he has proved that he can make a defensive difference as well.

Everton will be missing a couple of crucial players in this match due to both injury and suspension. Yerry Mina is still struggling from a hamstring injury that has kept him out for the last few games while Andre Gomes has been suspended for three games after accepting violent conduct charges from Everton’s last match. Both of these players have been used quite frequently throughout the campaign and while Mina has struggled slightly to become a first choice center-back, Andre Gomes could prove to be a massive miss as his progressive abilities from deep could have given Everton the edge on the break. United are struggling a bit more in terms of absences as Bailly and Valencia are going to miss the match through injury while Herrera could potentially be sidelined and Shaw has obtained a suspension until the 24th of April. This leaves United with limited defensive options and they might be forced into playing players like Young, Smalling and Jones at the back who have all been poor this season. All of these three have proven to be quite prone to making individual errors and this could give Everton a massive boost as if one of these players were to mess up we could see United dropping points.

This match could mean a lot to the teams involved with United pressing to get into the top 4 while Everton are looking for that ambiguous 7th place finish and possibly a Europa League spot. Although United are favourites due to their form this season, Everton are at home in this match which could spell trouble for the Red Devils. This is because Everton are the 7th best home side in the division in terms of points while they’ve managed 1.64 points per game when at home compared to 1.05 when on the road. They’re also unbeaten in their last 3 games at Goodison Park and, surprisingly, they’ve kept clean sheets in all of these games. United haven’t been great when away either and they’ve actually lost their last 2 away games meaning Everton do have a decent chance, playing at their own ground. We could also be right to expect quite a pragmatic affair as Everton usually set up very defensively against the bigger sides while they’ve also been very strong at the back over the past few weeks as there have been a maximum of 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 matches. Because of all of this, I don’t think United are going to gain the three points that they so desperately need and I’m predicting a low scoring 1-1 draw.